Mattia Bellucci #78Italy22 – 1Yannick Hanfmann #59Germany1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve well on grass and recent matches trending toward longer contests, the total games are likely to exceed 22.5.

• Bellucci's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games; Hanfmann's last 5 averaged 24.2 games.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates: Bellucci 57% career tiebreak wins, Hanfmann 44% but involved in many tiebreaks recently.
• H2H match had 23 games; both players' serve stats suggest few breaks, leading to longer sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bellucci's ability to stay competitive in sets, even in losses, makes a +3.5 game handicap a solid bet.

• Bellucci's recent losses: 6-3 6-0, 6-4 6-3, 6-2 6-4; all within 3.5 games handicap.
• Hanfmann's wins are often close: 7-6 7-6, 6-3 6-7 6-4, 6-4 6-7 7-5.
• H2H was decided by 3 games; Bellucci's competitive recent form suggests he can keep it close.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The serving strength of both players and recent first-set trends point to a first set with at least 10 games.

• Hanfmann's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 3-6, 6-7, 6-3, 4-6; average 10.2 games.
• Bellucci's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 3-6, 3-6, 4-6, 5-7; average 9.4 games.
• Grass often leads to tight first sets with few breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

The competitive nature of both players and the surface's tendency for close sets make a three-set match more likely than not.

• Bellucci's last 5 matches: 3 went to three sets; Hanfmann's last 5: 2 went to three sets.
• Both players have similar deciding set win rates (58%), indicating competitive matches.
• Grass often produces tight sets with few breaks, increasing the chance of a decider.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With strong serving and few breaks expected on grass, at least one tiebreak is highly probable.

• Hanfmann's last match featured two tiebreaks; Bellucci's last match had one tiebreak.
• Hanfmann has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches; Bellucci in 3 of his last 5.
• Both players have high tiebreak involvement: Hanfmann 44% career win rate, Bellucci 57%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' ace rates and Hanfmann's recent 22-ace performance, the total aces should comfortably exceed 12.5.

• Hanfmann hit 22 aces in his last match; Bellucci's ace rate is 7.9%.
• Combined ace rates: Hanfmann 7.2%, Bellucci 7.9%, suggesting around 15+ aces in a typical match.
• Grass surface amplifies ace counts; both players have above-average ace rates.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively low double fault rates, and the grass surface doesn't significantly increase double faults, making under 6.5 likely.

• Hanfmann's double fault rate is 3.1%; Bellucci's is 4.5%.
• In their H2H, both players had only 2 double faults each.
• Recent matches: Hanfmann averaged 2.2 double faults per match; Bellucci averaged 3.1.