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Predictions graded

Lorenzo Sonego #89Italy1Jacob Fearnley #87United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 7-6 · 4-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions4–736%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJacob Fearnley · 2 places

Lorenzo Sonego

Italy

Italian right-hander who reached a career-high ranking of No. 21 on 4 October 2021. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #89
Peak ranking: #21 · 2021
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 49 on June 9, 2025. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; historical college injuries are not treated as a current availability issue.

Current ranking: #87
Peak ranking: #49 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:55 · Europe/Bucharest

A Vienna main-draw place is on the line, and Fearnley's hard-court form — 10-4 with 10 of 12 first sets won — makes him the likelier winner against a Sonego who has lost four of his last five completed matches.

Three Fearnley prices carry an edge: 1.73 to win, 1.75 for the first set, 2.6 to win 2-0. Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 gives nothing back.

Context

Fearnley's first-set numbers are the sharpest single split in this matchup.
Sonego has split his own hard-court first sets 6-6, with four tiebreaks, so an early lead is not a formality. Fearnley's early-set scoring has still been much sharper, and losing the opener would leave Sonego chasing against a player who has closed seven of 12 matches in straight sets.
- Fearnley won 10 of 12 first sets in hard-court best-of-three matches between 24 August and 24 October 2026 (12 matches tracked, one retirement excluded from the sample).
- He averaged 6.08 first-set games won and 3.58 lost across the same 12 matches.
- He finished seven of those 12 matches 2-0, with three three-set results and two 0-2 defeats.
Sonego's second-set record is the weaker half of his set-by-set profile.
The second set has been Sonego's weakest stretch: he has won four of 12 and conceded 5.67 games per set. It matters here because Fearnley has taken seven of 12 second sets, so even an even split of opening sets would leave the middle of the match leaning one way.
- Sonego won 4 and lost 8 second sets across 12 hard-court best-of-three matches from 4 August to 24 October 2026.
- He averaged 4.67 second-set games won and 5.67 lost in that sample.
- Five of his 12 matches in the sample finished 0-2.
Sonego's serve is the best-documented part of his game in this sample.
That serve is the main reason the first-set gap is not a foregone conclusion, particularly with four of Sonego's 12 hard-court first sets going to tiebreaks. Fearnley's own serve and return figures are absent from the record, so this comparison rests on one side's numbers only.
- Sonego won 74.8% of first-serve points (585 of 782) across 15 matches in his last-15 sample.
- He landed 64.8% of first serves in the same window and averaged 8.9 aces with 2.5 double faults per match.
- He saved 48 of 79 break points (60.8%) across those 15 matches.
Sonego arrives after a three-set qualifying win that directly set up this fixture. It establishes the immediate stakes: a main-draw berth is on the line. The supplied evidence does not establish Fearnley's route or recovery window, so it does not support a workload comparison between the players.
- Sonego won 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 over Vallejo in Vienna qualifying.
- The match with Fearnley decides a place in the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:53 · Europe/BucharestSonego beats Vallejo to reach Vienna qualifying finalwww.supertennis.tv · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Fearnley's stronger recent hard-court record and first-set control make him the more likely winner.
- Fearnley's available hard-court record is 10-4; Sonego's current-surface record is 5-8.
- Fearnley has won 10 of 12 first sets in hard best-of-3 set evidence.
- Sonego has lost 8 of 12 second sets in the same set evidence.
- Sonego's current-surface total points won is 50.2%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJacob FearnleyEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sonego's first sets often go past nine games, and Fearnley's average is near the line.
- Sonego's first sets average 10.92 total games on hard.
- Fearnley's first sets average 9.67 total games.
- Sonego has four first-set tiebreaks in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's recent game margins and straight-set wins support him winning by at least two games.
- Fearnley's last six completed hard matches show a +15 game margin.
- He covered -1.5 in four of those six matches by game margin.
- Fearnley has seven 2-0 wins in 12 hard best-of-3 set evidence matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJacob Fearnley -1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sonego's recent margins are modestly negative, so a 2.5-game start is often enough.
- Sonego's current-surface game margin is -7 across 13 matches.
- He covered +2.5 in three of his last six completed hard matches.
- Fearnley's last six completed hard matches include two losses by four or five games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLorenzo Sonego +2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two second-set averages sit close to the line, with Sonego's slightly longer sets giving the over a small lean.
- Sonego's second sets average 10.33 total games on hard.
- Fearnley's second sets average 9.42 total games.
- Sonego has lost 8 of 12 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's shorter recent matches offset Sonego's longer ones, leaving the line close.
- Fearnley's set evidence totalGamesAverage is 21.5.
- Sonego's is 24.25.
- Fearnley has seven 2-0 wins in 12 hard best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set results dominate the recent hard-court record for both players.
- Fearnley has seven 2-0 wins in 12 hard best-of-3 set evidence matches.
- Sonego has lost 5 of 12 matches 0-2.
- Combined set evidence has 17 straight-set results in 24 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Fearnley's first-set record is much stronger than Sonego's even split.
- Fearnley has won 10 of 12 first sets in hard best-of-3 set evidence.
- Sonego has split first sets 6-6.
- Fearnley's first-set games won average is 6.08 to 3.58 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJacob FearnleyEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fearnley's second-set record is better, and Sonego has often faded in the second set.
- Fearnley has won 7 of 12 second sets in hard best-of-3 set evidence.
- Sonego has won only 4 of 12 second sets.
- Sonego's second-set games lost average is 5.67.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJacob FearnleyEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appear in less than half of their combined recent hard-court matches.
- Both players have five tiebreak matches in 12 hard best-of-3 set evidence matches.
- Sonego has four first-set tiebreaks; Fearnley has three.
- Fearnley has seven 2-0 wins, which can reduce tiebreak chances.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance54%

Prediction history

Jacob Fearnley: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Jacob Fearnley matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jacob Fearnley14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#110Jacob Fearnley2-0#124Sebastian Ofner

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

25 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#120Michael Zheng

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

23 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·62%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#121Jacob Fearnley2-0#166Tristan Boyer

Jacob Fearnley to win

62%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

21 Jul·Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Bloomfield Hills - USA

#123Jacob Fearnley2-0#179Remy Bertola

Jacob Fearnley to win

72%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

11 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

BetBugsJacob Fearnley to win·58%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau1-2#159Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley to win

58%probability

Jacob Fearnley won

Matched

Lorenzo Sonego

5W 10L

6-2 3-6 6-3#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(2) 6-4#194Moise Kouame

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#397Aziz Dougaz

7-5 6-2#78Kamil Majchrzak

5-7 7-5 6-2#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 6-4#73James Duckworth

3-6 6-4 6-4#146Francesco Passaro

6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-5 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

7-5 6-3#73James Duckworth

6-1 7-6(5)#79Adrian Mannarino

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#290Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-3 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-3#248Juncheng Shang

7-6(5) 7-5#60Tallon Griekspoor

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#55Raphael Collignon

Jacob Fearnley

10W 5L

6-4 3-6 6-3#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(4) 6-2#152Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-0#93Hugo Gaston

7-6(4) 6-3#83Damir Dzumhur

6-2 6-4#241Luca Nardi

6-0 7-6(4)#234Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-3#192Jan Kumstat

6-1 6-3#450George Loffhagen

7-6(4) 3-0 ret.#185Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-1 6-2#323Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#67Martin Landaluce

4-6 6-4 6-4#137Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#207Luka Pavlovic

7-6(3) 6-3#259Roberto Carballes Baena

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LSLorenzo SonegoSonego

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Jacob FearnleyFearnleyJF

Lorenzo Sonego carries the stronger recent form — Jacob Fearnley's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In64.8%+1.1pp63.7%

1st Serve Won74.8%+1.9pp72.9%

2nd Serve Won52.4%+3.5pp48.9%

Aces / Match8.9+4.24.7

Double Faults / Match2.52.8 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.6%+9.4pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted36.5%+10.9pp47.4%

Break Pts Saved60.8%+7.1pp67.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+3.2pp53.0%

Serve · 5–0

64.8%1st Serve In+1.1pp63.7%

74.8%1st Serve Won+1.9pp72.9%

52.4%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp48.9%

8.9Aces / Match+4.24.7

2.5Double Faults / Match2.8 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

32.6%Return Pts Won+9.4pp42.0%

Pressure · 0–2

36.5%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp47.4%

60.8%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp67.9%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+3.2pp53.0%

Lorenzo Sonego

Jacob Fearnley

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley

Jacob Fearnley 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Lorenzo Sonego

Jacob Fearnley

Stat Battle