ChinaWTA GuangzhouFinished

Predictions graded

Harriet Dart #117United Kingdom2Mei Yamaguchi #256Japan0

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 06:45 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Moura Monteiro · 139 places

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Mei Yamaguchi

Japan

Yamaguchi, 27, is the right-hander in this matchup. Her career-best singles ranking is No. 242, reached on 5 May 2025.

Current ranking: #256
Peak ranking: #242 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Dart is the stronger hard-court player across the tracked window, but she is coming off a 2h18 three-setter and Yamaguchi's first serve has been the more reliable shot.

Dart should still come through. Of the reviewed prices, only Yamaguchi at 3.5 to win the match offers a case; Dart at 1.3 for the match and 1.4 for the second set are too short.

Context

Dart arrives after a demanding three-set qualifying match, including a second-set tiebreak before a one-sided deciding set. That route gives her immediate match time at this event and places the fixture in the context of a quick turnaround. It does not establish an ongoing physical concern or predict how she will perform against Yamaguchi.
- Dart won her Guangzhou qualifying opener over Cheuk Ying Shek in three sets, after 2 hours and 18 minutes.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:29 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 24 Oct 2026
Her first sets in the same 14-match window were level at 7-7, so the drop is specific to the second set rather than the whole match.
Her first sets in that window were level at 7-7, so the dip is specific to the second set rather than the whole match. If Dart takes the opener, Yamaguchi's recent record suggests she has less margin to keep the match alive. It is a 14-match sample with no established cause, so it counts as a pattern to watch rather than a certainty.
- Yamaguchi won 4 of 14 second sets on hard courts between 30 June and 24 October 2026.
- She averaged 4.00 games won and 5.36 lost in second sets across those 14 matches.
- Her first sets in the same window were 7-7, with 4.71 games won and 4.50 lost.
It is the best result in her recent record and came against an opponent ranked 98 places above her.
Fruhvirtova sits 98 places above Yamaguchi, and the win came after losing the first set 2-6, so it is the best result in her recent record. It shows she can stay in a match against a higher-ranked opponent when her serve holds. One match is thin evidence and does not overturn a 4-10 hard-court record across 14 tracked matches.
- Yamaguchi beat Linda Fruhvirtova (No. 158) 2-6 6-2 7-6 on 24 October 2026.
- It was her latest completed hard-court match, leaving her 4-10 across 14 tracked hard-court matches.
Her first-serve points won is the strongest serving figure in either player's hard-court sample.
The 67.4% of first-serve points won is the strongest serving figure in either player's sample. A 56.0% first-serve rate and 61 double faults in 15 matches mean she gives away free points and often starts rallies on the second serve, where she won 43.7%. Yamaguchi's return game, 41.7% of return points won, is modest, which limits how heavily she can punish that.
- Dart won 67.4% of first-serve points (444 of 659) across 15 tracked hard-court matches.
- She averaged 4.1 double faults per match, 61 in total, with a 56.0% first-serve rate.
- She won 43.7% of second-serve points (226 of 517) in the same 15-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Harriet Dart

1.40fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 71.4%

−7.4ppshort

Yamaguchi's second sets have been much weaker than her first sets, giving Dart a clearer edge if the match reaches a second set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dart has the stronger serve-return numbers and a much better hard-court record, so she is a clear favourite without being overwhelming.
- Dart is 11-4 in 15 hard-court matches tracked; Yamaguchi is 4-10 in 14.
- Dart wins 52.9% of total points and 56.5% of games on hard; Yamaguchi wins 47.3% and 44.2%.
- Dart's return points won is 48.8% on hard; Yamaguchi's is 41.7%.
- Ranking gap: Dart 117, Yamaguchi 256.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance68%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The +4.5 line gives Yamaguchi room beyond her average game deficit, so she covers more often than not.
- Yamaguchi's hard-court games won minus games lost is -35 over 14 matches, an average of -2.5.
- With +4.5, that average margin would cover by 2.0 games.
- Dart's average hard-court game margin is +3.1 over 15 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMei Yamaguchi +4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's matches tend to run long, and a competitive qualifying match should put the total near the line.
- Dart's hard-court matches averaged 23.7 total games; Yamaguchi's averaged 21.5.
- Dart's second sets averaged 10.3 games; Yamaguchi's first sets averaged 9.2.
- Dart has six tiebreak matches in 15; Yamaguchi has five in 14.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Yamaguchi's second sets have been much weaker than her first sets, giving Dart a clearer edge if the match reaches a second set.
- Dart has won 8 of 15 second sets on hard; Yamaguchi has won 4 of 14.
- Yamaguchi's second-set game average is 4.00-5.36.
- Dart's second-set game average is 5.60-4.67.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yamaguchi often loses in straight sets, making a two-set finish more likely than a three-set one.
- Yamaguchi has six 0-2 losses and three 2-0 wins in 14 hard-court matches.
- Dart has four 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses in 15 hard-court matches.
- Yamaguchi's average sets per match is 2.36.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's overall advantage is modest in first sets, but she should start as the slightly stronger player.
- Dart has won 8 of 15 first sets on hard; Yamaguchi has won 7 of 14.
- Dart's first-set game average is 4.73-4.20; Yamaguchi's is 4.71-4.50.
- Dart is ranked 117 and Yamaguchi 256.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarriet DartEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have generally been short of tiebreaks, making no tiebreak more likely.
- Dart has had 9 matches without a tiebreak in 15; Yamaguchi 9 in 14.
- Yamaguchi's first sets averaged 9.2 games with one tiebreak.
- Dart's first sets had no tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's high double-fault rate pushes the combined total just above the line.
- Dart averages 4.1 double faults per match on hard; Yamaguchi 2.6 in 14 hard matches.
- Combined average is 6.7 per match.
- Dart has 61 double faults in 15 hard matches; Yamaguchi 37 in 14.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just above the line, so over 3.5 is slightly more likely.
- Dart averages 2.4 aces per match on hard; Yamaguchi 1.4 in 14 hard matches.
- Combined average is 3.8 aces per match.
- Dart has 36 aces in 15 hard matches; Yamaguchi 20 in 14.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Harriet Dart

11W 4L

5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#635Cheuk Ying Shek

7-5 7-6(6)#42Talia Gibson

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3#314Aoi Ito

6-3 6-1#306Rina Saigo

2-6 6-3 6-3#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5—Unknown Player

6-3 6-2#200Yexin Ma

6-2 6-3#471Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 6-2#26Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#37Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#388Heather Watson

5-7 6-0 6-3#555Kristina Penickova

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Jordyn Hazelitt

6-1 7-6(6)#37Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-4#314Aoi Ito

Mei Yamaguchi

4W 11L

2-6 6-2 7-6(7)#158Linda Fruhvirtova

2-6 6-0 6-1#126Sofia Kenin

6-1 6-3#437Wushuang Zheng

6-4 6-3#64Alycia Parks

6-1 6-1#246Kyoka Okamura

6-1 6-4#647Ulrikke Eikeri

4-6 7-6(7) 6-1#473Tahlia Kokkinis

3-6 6-1 6-0#203Zhuoxuan Bai

6-2 6-1#253Dayeon Back

7-6(6) 6-4#105Polina Kudermetova

5-7 6-3 6-2#429Reina Goto

7-5 7-6(7)#620Rebecca Marino

7-5 6-3#239Greetje Minnen

6-4 6-4#320Ena Koike

6-2 7-6(3)#230Whitney Osuigwe

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HDHarriet DartDart

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Mei YamaguchiYamaguchiMY

Harriet Dart carries the stronger recent form — Mei Yamaguchi's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In56.0%+7.1pp63.1%

1st Serve Won67.4%+9.8pp57.6%

2nd Serve Won43.7%+1.2pp42.5%

Aces / Match2.4+1.11.3

Double Faults / Match4.11.3 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.8%+6.4pp42.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.6%+2.1pp49.5%

Break Pts Saved55.5%+9.0pp46.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.9%+5.6pp47.3%

Serve · 3–2

56.0%1st Serve In+7.1pp63.1%

67.4%1st Serve Won+9.8pp57.6%

43.7%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp42.5%

2.4Aces / Match+1.11.3

4.1Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.8

Return · 1–0

48.8%Return Pts Won+6.4pp42.4%

Pressure · 2–0

51.6%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp49.5%

55.5%Break Pts Saved+9.0pp46.5%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won+5.6pp47.3%