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Predictions graded

Aliaksandra Sasnovich #122Belarus2Kamilla Rakhimova #67Uzbekistan0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Sun 25 Oct 2026, 02:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions7–188%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 55 places

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Belarus

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 29 in September 2022. The ITF lists hard court as her preferred surface; WTA lists Dzmitry Klimenko as her current coach.

Current ranking: #122
Peak ranking: #29 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #67
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Sasnovich has the better recent hard-court wins, but Rakhimova's stronger first-set record and tiebreak habit make this qualifying final tighter than the ranking gap.

Sasnovich is the slightly more likely winner, though her 1.80 match price asks too much. The prices worth considering are under 2.5 sets at 1.50 and under 20.5 games at 2.20, with Rakhimova's three-set matches the obvious counter.

Context

Sasnovich's recent hard-court matches have generally been decided in two sets.
That pattern gives Sasnovich a clear route to a short match, but it does not guarantee a repeat against Rakhimova. Her opponent has enough tiebreak and three-set matches in her own sample to keep the match from being purely a straight-set formality.
- Across 14 completed hard-court matches from 26 August to 24 October 2026, Sasnovich had a 9-5 record.
- Twelve of those 14 matches finished in straight sets, and all nine wins were 2-0.
- Her average total was 19.6 games.
Rakhimova has started strongly on hard courts but has been less secure in second sets.
Her fast starts make the opening set close to even despite Sasnovich's own 10 first-set wins in 14. The second-set drop-off supports Sasnovich's stronger second-set record, while the tiebreak count is a counterweight to any short-match read.
- Across 15 completed hard-court matches from 23 August to 24 October 2026, Rakhimova won 10 of 15 first sets and 6 of 15 second sets.
- Six of those 15 matches included a tiebreak.
- Her average total was 22.0 games.
Sasnovich's latest completed match was a straight-set win over a top-50 opponent.
That is a stronger recent win than any in Rakhimova's last six and supports Sasnovich's narrow sporting edge. The quick turnaround applies to both players, so it does not by itself separate them.
- On 24 October 2026, Sasnovich beat No. 50 Yuliia Starodubtseva 6-4, 7-5.
- Sasnovich won 13 games to 9.
- The match was her most recent completed match before this qualifying final.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Sasnovich's better recent wins and strong second-set record make her a narrow favourite in a close match.
- Sasnovich is 9-5 on hard courts in her last 14 completed matches, with recent wins over No. 50 Starodubtseva, No. 74 Kasatkina and No. 75 Bondar.
- She has won the first set 10 of 14 times and the second set 10 of 14 times on this surface.
- Rakhimova is 9-6 on hard courts but has lost to No. 177 Han Shi and No. 26 Bouzkova in her last six.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAliaksandra SasnovichEstimated chance51%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's wins and one narrow loss give her a good chance to stay within one game of Sasnovich's total.
- Rakhimova's recent hard-court game margins were +7, -4, +1, +6, -6 and +9.
- She covers +1.5 when her game margin is -1 or better.
- Four of those six recent matches met that condition.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKamilla Rakhimova +1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Sasnovich's straight-set wins and Rakhimova's several short matches point slightly to under 20.5.
- Sasnovich's hard-court matches average 19.6 total games.
- Her last six completed matches included three straight-set wins of 19 games or fewer.
- Rakhimova's last six included four matches of 20 games or fewer.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent hard-court records.
- Sasnovich has played 12 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Rakhimova has played 11 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Sasnovich's nine wins on this surface were all 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Sasnovich's second-set record is clearly stronger than Rakhimova's, making her the more likely second-set winner.
- Sasnovich has won the second set in 10 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has won the second set in only 6 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Sasnovich's second-set game average is 5.5 won and 3.36 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAliaksandra SasnovichEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Sasnovich's first-set record is strong and nearly level with Rakhimova's, giving her a slight opening-set edge.
- Sasnovich has won the first set in 10 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has lost the first set in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Sasnovich's first-set game average is 5.36 won and 4.29 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAliaksandra SasnovichEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Sasnovich's recent matches and several of Rakhimova's finish without a tiebreak.
- Sasnovich has had only 2 tiebreak matches in 14 hard-court matches.
- She has played 12 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Rakhimova has had nine of 15 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Previous match context available

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

10W 5L

6-4 7-5#50Yuliia Starodubtseva

7-5 6-7(3) 6-3#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 6-2#74Daria Kasatkina

5-3 ret.#51Anhelina Kalinina

7-5 6-1#75Anna Bondar

6-3 7-6(8)#113Elvina Kalieva

6-0 6-2#158Linda Fruhvirtova

7-5 6-1#270Xinxin Yao

6-1 6-4#33Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-4#42Talia Gibson

6-4 6-1#187Varvara Lepchenko

6-2 6-0#574Junhan Zhang

6-2 6-2#3Mirra Andreeva

7-5 6-0#74Daria Kasatkina

5-7 6-3 6-1#167Vendula Valdmannova

Kamilla Rakhimova

9W 6L

7-5 6-1#858Shiho Tsujioka

6-4 6-4#26Marie Bouzkova

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#120Tatiana Prozorova

6-2 6-4#103Dayana Yastremska

7-6(2) 6-1#177Han Shi

6-0 6-3#126Sofia Kenin

6-1 7-5#12Iva Jovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#129Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#73Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#105Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#100Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#45Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#70Maria Timofeeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ASAliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimovaKR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich carries the stronger recent form — Kamilla Rakhimova's route runs through break pts saved.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In63.6%+9.7pp53.9%

1st Serve Won65.0%+3.4pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+2.7pp45.9%

Aces / Match3.1+1.41.7

Double Faults / Match2.82.6 fewer5.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.8%+2.7pp46.1%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted47.8%+0.9pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved56.0%—55.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.7%+3.5pp50.2%

Serve · 5–0

63.6%1st Serve In+9.7pp53.9%

65.0%1st Serve Won+3.4pp61.6%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp45.9%

3.1Aces / Match+1.41.7

2.8Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer5.4

Return · 1–0

48.8%Return Pts Won+2.7pp46.1%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

47.8%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp46.9%

56.0%Break Pts Saved—55.8%

Points · 1–0

53.7%Total Pts Won+3.5pp50.2%

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Kamilla Rakhimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Under 20.5

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Kamilla Rakhimova

Stat Battle