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Predictions graded

Leylah Annie Fernandez #30Canada2Marie Bouzkova #26Czechia0

Sets 6-3 · 7-5Sat 24 Oct 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions8–280%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarie Bouzkova · 4 places

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Canada

A 23-year-old left-hander who reached a career-high No. 13 on August 8, 2022. She has won five WTA singles titles and was the 2021 US Open runner-up.

Current ranking: #30
Peak ranking: #13 · 2022
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 168 cm

Marie Bouzkova

Czechia

Right-handed and 1.80m, Bouzkova reached career-high No. 21 in July 2026. Her official profile records 2026 titles in Bogota and Nottingham but does not publish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #26
Peak ranking: #21 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 21:58 · Europe/Bucharest

A Ningbo semifinal for a place in the final: Fernandez's heavier, three-set week against Bouzkova's clean straight-set run.

Fernandez is the likelier winner, and 1.95 holds up, as do Fernandez by two games or more at 2.10, Fernandez to take the second set at 1.90, more than 22.5 games at 2.00 and a third set at 2.30. Bouzkova at 1.85 and 2.90 on Fernandez 2-0 do not.

Context

All six matches were played during Ningbo, with both quarterfinals . Fernandez has completed nine sets, including three deciding sets; Bouzkova has completed six sets with none extending to a decider. That difference gives the match unequal current-event workload context, although the supplied records do not provide match durations or medical information.
- Fernandez played three deciding sets in her first three Ningbo matches.
- Bouzkova won each of her first three Ningbo matches in straight sets.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 21:56 · Europe/BucharestTennis DB match recordtennis-db.com · 23 Oct 2026Tennis Temple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 23 Oct 2026
That second-set split is the clearest gap in her recent hard-court record: 12 wins in 15, with an average margin above two games. Bouzkova has won 9 of 14 second sets over the same surface, so the ground is not one-sided. If the semifinal reaches a second set, Fernandez's record makes her the likelier player to take it; it says nothing about the first.
- Home set evidence: 15 hard-court matches from 2026-08-30 to 2026-10-23; second sets won 12, lost 3; games won average 5.7, games lost average 3.4.
- Same sample: first sets won 10 of 15; seven matches finished 2-0 and five went to a deciding set.
The 2019 National Bank Open result is the only direct matchup reference in the supplied record. It establishes that Bouzkova has beaten Fernandez on hard court, the surface of Ningbo. It occurred seven years before this match and therefore does not describe their current standard or availability.
- The only listed prior meeting was a 6-0, 6-1 Bouzkova win on hard court at the 2019 National Bank Open.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 21:56 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 23 Oct 2026
Bouzkova's opening sets stretch: 10.4 games on average across 14 hard-court matches, with five of those matches containing a first-set tiebreak. That points to close opening exchanges rather than a fast start either way. Fernandez has won 10 of 15 first sets herself, so a tight opener would not by itself favour one player; the useful part of Bouzkova's pattern is how long the first set may run.
- Away set evidence: 14 hard-court matches from 2026-08-05 to 2026-10-23, one retirement excluded; first-set games won average 6.0, lost 4.4, total 10.4.
- Five of the 14 matches featured a tiebreak, all in the first set; first sets won 10, lost 4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Fernandez has the stronger current hard-court game and more complete recent results, while Bouzkova’s ranking edge is small.
- Fernandez is 12-3 on hard in her Last 15 and wins 57.7% of games.
- Bouzkova is 9-5 on hard but lacks serve and return metrics in the feed.
- Fernandez won three of her last four completed hard matches against top-35 opponents.
- Bouzkova lost to Chwalinska and Zheng in her last six matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeylah Annie FernandezEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova’s longer opening sets lift the over, though Fernandez’s shorter sets pull the other way.
- Bouzkova’s set1 matches average 10.4 games with five tiebreaks in 14.
- Fernandez’s set1 matches average 9.0 games with no tiebreaks in 15.
- Bouzkova has often gone past 9.5 set1 games by average, while Fernandez is below.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Fernandez has generally won more games than she has lost, but this handicap needs a two-game margin.
- Fernandez’s recent hard-court game margins: +7, +4, +1, -2, +5, +2.
- She wins by at least two games in four of those six matches.
- Bouzkova’s recent margins include a -5 loss to Chwalinska.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLeylah Annie Fernandez -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both players’ recent totals sit near the line, and Fernandez’s longer matches push the over slightly.
- Fernandez’s hard-court matches average 23.0 total games; Bouzkova’s average 22.3.
- Fernandez has played five of six recent matches above 22.5 games.
- Bouzkova’s set1 average is 10.4 games, with five tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Three of Fernandez’s last six matches went to a third set.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The set2 total is balanced, with Bouzkova slightly above the line and Fernandez slightly below.
- Fernandez’s set2 matches average 9.1 games.
- Bouzkova’s set2 matches average 9.8 games.
- Bouzkova has two tiebreaks in set2; Fernandez one.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Fernandez’s second-set record is the strongest split in the set evidence.
- Fernandez has won set two in 12 of 15 hard matches.
- Bouzkova has won set two in 9 of 14 hard matches.
- Fernandez’s set2 games average is 5.7 won and 3.4 lost.
- Bouzkova’s set2 average is 5.2 won and 4.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLeylah Annie FernandezEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bouzkova’s short match pattern makes under 2.5 sets the more probable side.
- Bouzkova has played 11 of 14 hard matches in two sets.
- Fernandez has played 7 of 15 hard matches in two sets.
- Bouzkova’s recent six matches include five straight-set finishes.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players start strongly, and Fernandez’s overall edge is only slight in the opening set.
- Fernandez has won set one in 10 of 15 hard matches.
- Bouzkova has won set one in 10 of 14 hard matches.
- Fernandez’s set1 games average is 4.8 won and 4.2 lost.
- Bouzkova’s set1 average is 6.0 won and 4.4 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLeylah Annie FernandezEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fernandez’s low tiebreak rate and short opening sets make no tiebreak more probable.
- Bouzkova has had a tiebreak in 5 of 14 hard matches.
- Fernandez has had a tiebreak in 1 of 15 hard matches.
- Bouzkova’s set1 has produced five tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Fernandez’s set1 has produced none in 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-0 6-1Leylah Annie Fernandez#30vMarie Bouzkova#26Aug 5, 2019

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Leylah Annie Fernandez

12W 3L

4-6 6-2 6-1#33Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-5 6-7(3) 6-3#122Aliaksandra Sasnovich

2-6 6-3 7-5#15Elise Mertens

6-1 1-6 6-4#24Jelena Ostapenko

6-3 6-4#177Han Shi

6-4 3-6 6-3#33Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-2 4-6 6-3#67Kamilla Rakhimova

7-5 6-0#42Talia Gibson

1-6 6-4 6-2#11Maja Chwalinska

6-2 7-5#3Mirra Andreeva

6-4 6-3#64Alycia Parks

6-2 6-3#246Kyoka Okamura

1-6 6-4 6-3#4Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#84Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#85Shuai Zhang

Marie Bouzkova

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#32Sara Bejlek

7-5 6-2#111Anastasia Zakharova

6-4 6-4#67Kamilla Rakhimova

1-6 6-1 6-1#11Maja Chwalinska

6-1 2-0 ret.#54Clara Tauson

7-6(3) 4-6 7-5#22Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-4#41Kimberly Birrell

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#49Sonay Kartal

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#9Iga Swiatek

6-2 6-2#117Harriet Dart

6-2 6-2#157Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 6-2#5Cori Gauff

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-4#107Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(4) 7-5#89Taylor Townsend

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LFLeylah Annie FernandezFernandez

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Marie BouzkovaBouzkovaMB

Marie Bouzkova carries the stronger recent form — Leylah Annie Fernandez's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1564.3%+2.8pp67.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.1%+1.0pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1546.0%—45.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.9+0.62.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.02.4 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1546.8%+1.9pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1550.3%+3.2pp53.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1563.7%+7.0pp56.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.1%—52.4%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

64.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp67.1%

66.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp67.1%

46.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—45.6%

2.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.62.3

5.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.4 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

46.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp44.9%

Pressure · 1–1

50.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp53.5%

63.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.0pp56.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—52.4%

Leylah Annie Fernandez #30Canada2Marie Bouzkova #26Czechia0

Player Profiles

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Marie Bouzkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez -1.5

Over 22.5

Over 2.5

Leylah Annie Fernandez 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Marie Bouzkova

Stat Battle