FranceRoanne - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jerome Kym #249Switzerland0Mika Brunold #261Switzerland2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Sat 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJerome Kym · 12 places

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander who reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 123 in May 2025. His official 2026 record shows most of his matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #249
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #261
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 23:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Two closely ranked players meet for a place in the Roanne final, and the tension is whether Kym's fresher legs and stronger serving outweigh Brunold's 12 wins in 14 matches and 3-0 week on this surface.

Kym is the likelier winner, but 1.48 asks too much for that. Brunold to win at 2.5 is the one quoted price that offers something; Kym to take the second set at 1.53 is similarly steep.

Context

Kym's last completed match was a straight-set win over Ugo Blanchet on 15 October, so he enters this semifinal with a two-day gap and none of the physical cost of a quarterfinal. Brunold played a full three-setter, roughly a day before this match, in what is already his third match of the week. That is a real, verifiable difference in recent workload for a best-of-three indoor match, although a walkover can also mean lost rhythm and Brunold has handled the schedule well, winning his last four matches.
- Stricker withdrew from the quarterfinal against Kym, giving Kym a walkover.
- Brunold beat Felix Balshaw 6-3 2-6 6-3 in the quarterfinals .
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Bonzi was the highest-ranked opponent on Brunold's Roanne route and a former ATP mainstay, so the three-set win is the strongest single result behind this semifinal run. It shows Brunold converting against a big-serving, higher-ranked player rather than only lower-ranked Challenger opposition. The limitation is that Bonzi was playing a home-country Challenger and had already been taken to three sets in the first round, so the result is a strong form data point rather than proof of a decisive edge in this match.
- Bonzi was the tournament's second seed and was ranked around No. 92 when they met.
- Brunold won 6-2 2-6 6-4 .
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Rather than a single-week spike, the sequence shows Brunold making the last eight or better at four straight Challenger events and reaching a third semifinal this season, which is more than his No. 261 ranking suggests. It explains why he arrives with match confidence and a settled game on the current swing. The counterpoint is that he has not converted any of these semifinal runs into a title in 2026, so the step from consistent Challenger contender to finalist remains untaken.
- Brunold reached a fourth consecutive ATP Challenger quarterfinal at Roanne.
- He reached his third semifinal of the year in Roanne.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest
The defending champion and the top three seeds are all out before the semifinals, which removes the most established names and leaves an unusually open Roanne draw. For this match it frames the occasion: the winner reaches a Challenger final against a similar-level opponent rather than a heavily favoured seed. It is tournament context rather than a direct pointer on the Kym-Brunold matchup, since both are unseeded and similarly ranked.
- Defending champion Otto Virtanen lost 7-5 5-7 6-3 to Dominic Stricker in the second round.
- Top seed Hugo Gaston lost 6-1 7-6(7) to Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the quarterfinals.
- Second seed Benjamin Bonzi lost to Mika Brunold in the second round.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Jerome Kym

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

−7.4ppshort

Kym has been strong in second sets on this surface, while Brunold has repeatedly lost the second set in Roanne.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym has the larger body of hard-court evidence, stronger serving numbers and clearly fresher legs after a walkover, while Brunold has played two long three-setters in three days.
- Kym is 6-2 on hard courts in this window with a 74.6% first-serve points won rate and 10.6 aces per match.
- Kym reached the semifinal via a walkover, so he has not played since 15 October.
- Brunold is 12-2 in his last 14 matches and 3-0 on this surface, but that surface sample is only three matches.
- Rankings are close (Kym 249, Brunold 261), and Brunold beat No. 92 Bonzi in Roanne.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJerome KymEstimated chance56%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have regularly gone deep into sets on this surface, and five of Kym's eight hard-court matches needed a third set.
- Kym's hard-court matches average 26.1 total games; Brunold's last three average 24.7.
- Kym's set1 and set2 each average 9.875 games on this surface.
- Brunold's last two matches finished 26 games apiece.
- Five of Kym's eight hard-court matches went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 25.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets have averaged close to ten games, and Kym has taken three tiebreak first sets.
- Kym's set1 averages 9.875 total games on this surface, with 3 tiebreaks in 8 matches.
- Brunold's set1 averages 10 total games over three matches.
- Kym's most recent completed match included a 7-6 set.
- Both players won set1 in a majority of their surface matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's second sets tend to run near ten games, and he has the larger surface sample.
- Kym's set2 averages 9.875 total games with only 1 tiebreak in 8.
- Brunold's set2 averages 8.33 total games over three matches.
- Kym's set2 win rate on this surface is 6 of 8.
- Brunold lost set2 twice by 2-6.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have repeatedly been taken to a deciding set on this surface this month.
- Kym's hard-court average is 2.625 sets per match, with five of eight going to a decider.
- Two of Brunold's three surface matches went to three sets.
- Both players have recent scorelines of 2-1.
- Brunold has played three sets in two matches this week.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Kym has been strong in second sets on this surface, while Brunold has repeatedly lost the second set in Roanne.
- Kym won set2 in 6 of 8 hard-court matches.
- Brunold lost set2 in 2 of 3 surface matches, averaging only 3.33 games won.
- Kym's set2 games average is 5.625 won, 4.25 lost.
- Brunold has dropped the second set 2-6 twice this week.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJerome KymEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym has the larger hard-court set1 sample and a clear rest advantage heading into the match.
- Kym won set1 in 5 of 8 hard-court matches.
- Brunold won set1 in all 3 surface matches.
- Kym has not played since 15 October after a walkover.
- Kym's set1 games average is 5.75 won, 4.125 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJerome KymEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kym's strong serving and close recent sets make a tiebreak a reasonable possibility.
- Four of Kym's eight hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
- One of Brunold's three surface matches featured a tiebreak.
- Kym's most recent completed match had a 7-6 first set.
- Kym averages 10.6 aces per match on this surface.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Jerome Kym: 6/8 recent winner projections matched

6 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Jerome Kym matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jerome Kym8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#198Jerome Kym1-2#294Philip Henning

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·62%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#198Jerome Kym1-2#294Philip Henning

Jerome Kym to win

62%probability

Philip Henning won

Missed

20 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#186Jerome Kym2-1#239Jay Clarke

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#186Jerome Kym2-1#239Jay Clarke

Jerome Kym to win

62%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#186Jerome Kym2-1#618Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·78%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#186Jerome Kym2-1#618Dylan Dietrich

Jerome Kym to win

78%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

10 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski1-2#196Jerome Kym

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·58%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski1-2#196Jerome Kym

Jerome Kym to win

58%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

8 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#196Jerome Kym2-0#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsJerome Kym to win·62%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#196Jerome Kym2-0#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Jerome Kym to win

62%probability

Jerome Kym won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jerome Kym

11W 4L

6-1 6-3#305Ugo Blanchet

7-6(6) 7-6(3)#146Clement Chidekh

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#199Edas Butvilas

6-2 4-6 6-2#100Toby Samuel

3-6 7-5 6-1#365Tiago Torres

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#227Remy Bertola

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#212Colton Smith

6-0 6-3#391Dan Added

6-4 7-6(4)#164Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(4)#181Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#216Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 7-6(4)#226Max Houkes

6-3 6-3#491Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-0#267Philip Henning

1-6 6-4 6-4#240Jay Clarke

Mika Brunold

13W 2L

6-3 2-6 6-3#198Felix Balshaw

6-2 2-6 6-4#92Benjamin Bonzi

7-6(2) 6-3—Mathys Domenc

6-0 3-6 6-4#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#336Francesco Forti

6-3 1-6 7-5#390Massimo Giunta

6-4 6-3#230Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-2#172Vitaliy Sachko

6-2 6-1#116Gustavo Heide

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#471Filip Misolic

6-3 4-0 ret.#349Miguel Damas

7-5 6-4#418Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#613Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#316Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#301Raphael Perot

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJerome KymKym

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Mika BrunoldBrunoldMB

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Jerome Kym's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In58.8%+7.6pp66.4%

1st Serve Won76.5%+6.5pp70.0%

2nd Serve Won50.7%+5.3pp56.0%

Aces / Match9.5+7.02.5

Double Faults / Match3.31.3 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.5%+3.4pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.6%+1.7pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+5.3pp65.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.7%+1.3pp54.0%

Serve · 2–3

58.8%1st Serve In+7.6pp66.4%

76.5%1st Serve Won+6.5pp70.0%

50.7%2nd Serve Won+5.3pp56.0%

9.5Aces / Match+7.02.5

3.3Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

39.5%Return Pts Won+3.4pp42.9%

Pressure · 0–2

43.6%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp45.3%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp65.3%

Points · 0–1

52.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp54.0%