ItalyWTA RoveretoFinished

Predictions graded

Teodora Kostovic #149Serbia0Martyna Kubka #166Poland2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Thu 15 Oct 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTeodora Kostovic · 17 places

Teodora Kostovic

Serbia

Serbian right-hander born 28 June 2007. Her recorded career-high ranking is No. 146, reached in July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #149
Peak ranking: #146 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players 17 ranking places apart meet in the Rovereto round of 16 on indoor hard courts, and little separates them.

Kostovic has the stronger first-set record and is the likelier winner; Kubka won their only meeting and has just beaten a top-100 seed 6-1 6-2. The match-winner prices — 1.85 on Kostovic and 1.95 on Kubka — are both shorter than this matchup justifies, so neither is worth taking.

Context

Charaeva arrived with a recent win over Elena Rybakina in Beijing, so Kubka's 6-1 6-2 scoreline against the fourth seed is a stronger signal than the ranking gap alone suggests. Kubka is No. 166 against Charaeva's No. 98, making the straight-sets margin a genuine upset rather than a routine seeding hold. It was only Kubka's second career top-100 win, which tempers any reading of a permanent step up. The result also gives Kubka a first win over a seeded opponent at this event.
- Kubka defeated fourth seed Alina Charaeva 6-1 6-2 in Rovereto .
- Charaeva, ranked No. 98, had beaten Elena Rybakina in Beijing about ten days earlier.
- It was Kubka's second career victory over a top-100 opponent.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 13 Oct 2026
The Ankara final was the deepest run of Kostovic's young career and shows a level she can sustain across a full 125-level week. Losing in three sets after taking the opening set also indicates she can build a lead against experienced opponents at this tier. The counterpoint is that the run finished nearly three weeks before Rovereto, so it is context for her development rather than direct evidence about this fixture. It does confirm she arrives having recently competed at the sharp end of a comparable event.
- Kostovic lost the WTA 125 Ankara final to Berfu Cengiz 2-6 6-4 7-5 .
- Kostovic won the first set 6-2 before Cengiz recovered.
- The run lifted her to a career-high ranking of No. 139.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest
The timeout came in the first set of a three-set loss, making it the most recent on-court fitness signal before Rovereto. Kostovic has since completed a straight-sets win over Elsa Jacquemot without a reported recurrence, so the leg is not currently confirmed as limiting. The limitation is that a single medical timeout is not evidence of an ongoing problem and no withdrawal or retirement followed. It is worth watching only if the leg is addressed again in Rovereto.
- Kostovic received treatment on her left leg during a medical timeout in her match against Antonia Ruzic.
- The treatment involved adjustment of a bandage on the left leg.
- Kostovic lost that match 4-6 6-4 6-2 and has since won her Rovereto opener .
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Kostovic has taken the opening set in 10 of her 13 hard-court matches in this window, while Kubka has won 7 of 15 first sets. That makes the start of this match the clearest separation between the two recent records. It does not settle the match, since Kubka has still won 10 of her 15 hard-court matches in that period. One retired match is excluded, so the sample covers completed matches only.
- Kostovic is 10-3 in first sets across 13 completed hard-court matches from 3 August to 13 October 2026.
- She averages 5.77 games won and 3.92 lost in first sets over that sample.
- Her second-set record in the same sample is 9-4, with 5.69 games won and 4.23 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Teodora Kostovic

1.85fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 54.1%

−2.1ppshort

The two are close in ranking and hard-court form, with Kostovic the stronger starter and Kubka carrying the head-to-head win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The two are close in ranking and hard-court form, with Kostovic the stronger starter and Kubka carrying the head-to-head win.
- Kostovic is 8-5 on hard in this window and 10-3 in first sets.
- Kubka is 10-5 on hard with 52.4% of games and 50.5% of points won.
- Kubka won the only previous meeting 7-6 2-6 6-1 on hard.
- Kostovic reached the WTA 125 Ankara final and a career-high No. 139.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTeodora KostovicEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average close to ten games in the opening set, with Kubka slightly above the line.
- Kostovic first-set games average is 9.69; Kubka's is 10.07.
- Kostovic has had one first-set tiebreak in 13 matches.
- Kubka's average first-set games total is 10.07.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic wins most matches in straight sets and both players sit just below the line.
- Kostovic total-games average is 23.23; Kubka 23.27.
- Kostovic won 2-0 in 7 of 13 matches.
- Kostovic's first-set games average is 9.69.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic wins most of her matches without dropping a set, and Kubka can lose quickly too.
- Kostovic won 2-0 in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Kostovic's three-set match rate is 38%; Kubka's is 47%.
- Kubka has lost 0-2 in five matches this window.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic wins opening sets far more often than Kubka, who tends to start slowly.
- Kostovic set1 record on hard is 10-3; Kubka 7-8.
- Kostovic averages 5.77 games won to 3.92 lost in first sets.
- Kubka averages 5.07 games won to 5.00 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTeodora KostovicEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kostovic has the better second-set record, while Kubka often drops the middle set before recovering.
- Kostovic set2 record on hard is 9-4; Kubka 6-9.
- Kostovic averages 5.69 games won to 4.23 lost in second sets.
- Kubka averages 4.27 games won to 4.73 lost in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTeodora KostovicEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually finish sets without reaching six games all.
- Kostovic has had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Kubka has had a tiebreak in 2 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Kostovic's average first-set games total is 9.69.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Teodora Kostovic

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(5)#158Elsa Jacquemot

4-6 6-4 6-2#93Antonia Ruzic

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#152Dalma Galfi

6-1 ret.#231Berfu Cengiz

2-6 6-4 7-5#231Berfu Cengiz

7-5 7-5#142Polina Iatcenko

6-0 7-5#246Fangran Tian

6-3 6-1#321Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-3 6-1#263Carolyn Ansari

6-3 6-4#76Kaitlin Quevedo

6-4 6-1#131Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#829Victoria Luiza Barros

4-6 6-4 6-4#256Arantxa Rus

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#166Martyna Kubka

6-4 6-0#234Vivian Wolff

Martyna Kubka

10W 5L

6-1 6-2#98Alina Charaeva

6-3 6-2#258Lois Boisson

6-3 4-6 6-4#560Ksenia Efremova

6-2 6-4#231Berfu Cengiz

6-3 6-3#328Manon Leonard

7-5 4-6 6-1#546Carson Tanguilig

6-2 7-5#479Jana Otzipka

6-4 6-0#116Kristina Liutova

6-3 6-2#129Marina Bassols Ribera

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#549Annika Penickova

7-5 6-4#180Mona Barthel

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#149Teodora Kostovic

5-7 6-3 6-3#239Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 4-6 6-4#357Kira Pavlova

4-6 6-1 7-5#217Han Shi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TKTeodora KostovicKostovic

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Martyna KubkaKubkaMK

Teodora Kostovic carries the stronger recent form — Martyna Kubka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.2%+3.9pp63.1%

1st Serve Won69.5%+6.2pp63.3%

2nd Serve Won50.7%—50.4%

Aces / Match4.2+1.05.2

Double Faults / Match3.51.2 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.3%+2.4pp41.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.3%+7.5pp43.8%

Break Pts Saved60.6%+3.1pp57.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.9%+2.4pp50.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

59.2%1st Serve In+3.9pp63.1%

69.5%1st Serve Won+6.2pp63.3%

50.7%2nd Serve Won—50.4%

4.2Aces / Match+1.05.2

3.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

44.3%Return Pts Won+2.4pp41.9%

Pressure · 2–0

51.3%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp43.8%

60.6%Break Pts Saved+3.1pp57.5%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won+2.4pp50.5%