ItalyWTA RoveretoFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Martyna Kubka #173Poland2Alina Charaeva #118Armenia0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Tue 13 Oct 2026, 11:26 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlina Charaeva · 55 places

Martyna Kubka

Poland

Reached career-high No. 185 on 20 July 2026 and is No. 192 on the 3 August list. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #173
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Alina Charaeva

Armenia

The WTA lists Charaeva at a career-high No. 112 in July 2026. The ITF identifies hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #118
Peak ranking: #112 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Charaeva, the fourth seed and No. 118, comes off a career-best Beijing week; Kubka, No. 173, arrives rested.

Charaeva should win, but her second serve and slow first sets leave the door ajar. Charaeva at 1.15 and Under 21.5 games at 1.55 do not justify the risk. Over 21.5 games at 2.3 and Kubka at 5.5 are the two prices with a case.

Context

Charaeva arrives at a WTA 125 straight from the strongest week of her career, with three wins at WTA 1000 level and a comeback against the world No. 1 from a set down. That result sets the current standard for a player ranked just outside the top 100 against an opponent ranked around No. 170. The elite-level sample behind it is very small, and the Beijing run included three three-set matches, so its clearest effect may be physical load rather than a settled jump in form.
- Beat Elena Rybakina 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the China Open second round on 3 October
- Also beat Yuliia Starodubtseva and Sonay Kartal 6-4 6-1 in Beijing
- Lost 6-1 2-6 6-4 to Zheng Qinwen in the round of 16
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Charaeva's recent scoreboard pattern is a slow start followed by a much stronger second set, which keeps the opening set live even when she is the higher-ranked player.
Charaeva has been the better player across this stretch yet has repeatedly given away the opening set, losing 8 of 12. That matters in a best-of-three first round, because a dropped set leaves her needing two strong sets and this run shows she can produce them. It also points to a match that is unlikely to be settled quickly.
- First sets on hard: 4-8 across 12 matches, 11 August to 7 October 2026
- Second sets on hard: 9-3 across the same 12 matches
- Three of those 12 matches included a second-set tiebreak
- Total games average 25.6 per match in that window
Charaeva's serve profile is high-variance: a first delivery that wins points and a second delivery that gives ground back.
The first serve is a genuine weapon at 62.3% of points won across the 15 matches, but the second serve returns only 42% and the 87 double faults in that window show what the shortfall costs. An opponent who returns reasonably well can keep pressure on those games and stretch the match, the opposite of the quick win Charaeva's ranking suggests. Kubka's 41.8% of return points won on hard courts is not exceptional, but it is enough to hold rallies on the second serve.
- 87 double faults in 15 matches (5.8 per match)
- Second-serve points won: 42.0% (218 of 519)
- First-serve points won: 62.3% (476 of 764)
- Record across those 15 matches: 9-6
Rovereto is a 125-level hard-court event in the week after the Asian swing, and Charaeva enters as one of the highest-ranked players in the draw. The fourth seeding reflects her ranking and places her directly against Kubka in a 32-player main draw without a bye. Seeding at this level is an entry marker rather than a playing advantage, so the surface and the immediate first-round opposition are the more relevant details.
- Charaeva seeded fourth at the RoveretOpen Città della Pace
- Hard-court WTA 125 event running 12-18 October in Rovereto, Italy
- First-round match scheduled for 13 October
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/BucharestWTASchedulewww.wtaschedule.com · 10 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva is the higher-ranked player and has just produced a far stronger level of hard-court results than Kubka's recent form.
- No. 118 and fourth seed; Kubka is No. 173
- Beat world No. 1 Rybakina, Kartal and Starodubtseva in Beijing before losing to Zheng in the last 16
- Hard-court last 12: 7-5, 46% of return points won, 64.8% of first-serve points won
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlina CharaevaEstimated chance64%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players routinely play long, close matches, with three-set rates at or above half, so a total above 21.5 games is the more likely outcome.
- Kubka's 15 hard-court matches average 23.3 total games
- Charaeva's 12 hard-court matches average 25.6 total games
- Charaeva averages 2.58 sets per hard match, Kubka 2.47
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have been settled by small game margins, so a four-game Charaeva win is less likely than a tight finish.
- Kubka's last six completed hard matches: 63 games won, 68 lost (-5)
- Charaeva's hard-court game margin is +11 across 12 matches
- Kubka won 52.3% of her hard-court games across 15 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMartyna Kubka +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's second sets regularly go past nine games and often reach tiebreaks, pulling the total up.
- Charaeva's second sets average 10.5 total games on hard
- Kubka's second sets average 9.0 total games on hard
- Three of Charaeva's 12 hard matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two players' first sets sit right around ten games on average, leaving the line close to a coin flip.
- Kubka's first sets average 10.1 total games on hard
- Charaeva's first sets average 9.4 total games on hard
- Charaeva has played no first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva has been markedly stronger in second sets than Kubka, who has lost more second sets than she has won.
- Charaeva's second-set record on hard is 9-3
- Kubka's second-set record on hard is 6-9
- Three of Charaeva's 12 hard matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlina CharaevaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva is the stronger player overall, but her repeated slow starts keep the opening set close.
- Charaeva's first-set record on hard is 4-8; Kubka's is 7-8
- Charaeva's second-set record on hard is 9-3
- Charaeva is ranked 118, Kubka 173
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlina CharaevaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players lose sets regularly and neither has dominated recent matches, making three sets a marginal favourite.
- Charaeva's hard-court matches went to a decider in 7 of 12 (58%)
- Kubka's hard-court matches went to a decider in 7 of 15 (47%)
- Combined, 14 of their last 27 hard matches went to three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' hard-court matches this season, so a match without one is much more likely.
- Kubka's hard-court matches contained a tiebreak in 2 of 15
- Charaeva's contained one in 3 of 12
- Combined tiebreak rate is 5 of 27 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' ace rates add up to just above the line for a match expected to run around 24 games.
- Kubka averages 5.3 aces per hard match
- Charaeva averages 3.4 aces per hard match
- Combined average is 8.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined double-fault average sits just under 8.5, so the under is marginally more likely.
- Charaeva's 73 double faults in 12 hard matches equals 6.1 per match
- Kubka's 35 double faults in 15 hard matches equals 2.3 per match
- Combined average is 8.4, just below the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Martyna Kubka

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#274Lois Boisson

6-3 4-6 6-4#577Ksenia Efremova

6-2 6-4#225Berfu Cengiz

6-3 6-3#328Manon Leonard

7-5 4-6 6-1#557Carson Tanguilig

6-2 7-5#483Jana Otzipka

6-4 6-0#119Kristina Liutova

6-3 6-2#131Marina Bassols Ribera

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#555Annika Penickova

7-5 6-4#186Mona Barthel

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#139Teodora Kostovic

5-7 6-3 6-3#246Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 4-6 6-4#342Kira Pavlova

4-6 6-1 7-5#231Han Shi

6-2 6-2#801Chloe Noel

Alina Charaeva

9W 6L

6-1 2-6 6-4#54Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-1#129Sonay Kartal

3-6 6-4 6-3#1Elena Rybakina

5-7 7-5 6-2#45Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-4 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#64Anna Bondar

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#107Sofia Kenin

6-4 7-5#89Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#155Elina Avanesyan

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#203Xiaodi You

6-4 6-4#141Susan Bandecchi

4-6 6-4 6-3#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 6-3#630Rebecca Marino

6-1 7-6(3)#64Anna Bondar

5-7 7-5 7-5#95Sinja Kraus

3-6 7-5 6-1#194Sara Sorribes Tormo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MKMartyna KubkaKubka

Last 15

6–1

9 core stats · 2 even

Alina CharaevaCharaevaAC

Martyna Kubka carries the stronger recent form — Alina Charaeva's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In63.2%+3.7pp59.5%

1st Serve Won63.6%+1.3pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+8.6pp42.0%

Aces / Match5.3+2.03.3

Double Faults / Match2.33.5 fewer5.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.8%+5.1pp46.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.5%—44.9%

Break Pts Saved57.5%+5.0pp52.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.6%—50.4%

Serve · 5–0

63.2%1st Serve In+3.7pp59.5%

63.6%1st Serve Won+1.3pp62.3%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+8.6pp42.0%

5.3Aces / Match+2.03.3

2.3Double Faults / Match3.5 fewer5.8

Return · 0–1

41.8%Return Pts Won+5.1pp46.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

44.5%Break Pts Converted—44.9%

57.5%Break Pts Saved+5.0pp52.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won—50.4%