SpainWTA MallorcaFinished

Predictions graded

Marina Bassols Ribera #129Spain1Francesca Curmi #233Malta2

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 3-6Wed 14 Oct 2026, 08:18 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions7–654%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarina Bassols Ribera · 104 places

Marina Bassols Ribera

Spain

Spanish right-hander born 13 December 1999. Reached a career-high No. 105 in February 2024; the WTA profile lists hard court as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: #105 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 165 cm

Francesca Curmi

Malta

Curmi, 24, is right-handed and lists hard as her preferred surface. She reached her highest singles ranking, No. 235, in July 2026.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: #235 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 15:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Marina Bassols Ribera, the fourth seed and world No. 129, meets No.

233 Francesca Curmi for the first time in Mallorca's second round, her 6-1 6-3 opener set against Curmi's three-set grind. Bassols Ribera looks the likelier winner and straight sets the likelier shape, but 1.85 to win gives away little, the 1.65 with a 1.5-game start is close to fair, and 1.5 on Under 2.5 sets asks more than the record supports. No quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Beating a seeded opponent in a WTA 125 draw shows Curmi can handle a higher-ranked player across three sets, which is the same task she faces against fourth seed Bassols Ribera. The result sits in the same clay swing as this event. It came in a three-setter and is a month old, so it is an upside reference rather than a current signal.
- Curmi defeated second seed Veronika Erjavec in three sets at the WTA 125 BBVA Open Internacional de Valencia on 14 September 2026.
- The result was her most notable win over a seeded opponent during this clay stretch.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:46 · Europe/Bucharest
The seed's service games are not the banked hold her ranking implies on clay: she won 56% of first-serve points and 44.7% of second-serve points, yet still took 54.3% of clay games (75 of 138) and 50.5% of total points. Her 48.7% of return points won points the same way. Curmi's serve and return numbers are unavailable, so that half of the comparison stays open.
- Bassols Ribera's last-15 record includes a clay split with serve metrics tracked over 6 matches, 16 July to 13 October 2026.
- 68.1% first serves in (282 of 414), 56% first-serve points won (158 of 282) and 44.7% second-serve points won (59 of 132).
- 4.5 double faults (27 in 6 matches) and 0.3 aces (2 in 6 matches) per match.
- 48.7% return points won (200 of 411) and 54.3% of clay games won (75 of 138).
Bassols Ribera's straight-sets win over qualifier Ida Wobker kept her on court for the minimum, while Curmi had to absorb a first-set loss and a third set before closing out Eva Vedder. On clay, where rallies lengthen, that extra set is the clearest workload difference between them going into this meeting. Curmi finished by taking the third set 6-0, so the longer match may reflect a slow start rather than accumulated fatigue.
- Bassols Ribera, ranked No. 129 and seeded fourth, defeated qualifier Ida Wobker 6-1 6-3 .
- Curmi, ranked No. 233, beat Eva Vedder 4-6 7-5 6-0 .
- Both opening matches were played on clay at the Mallorca Women's Championships.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:46 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 13 Oct 2026
No prior meeting means neither player has a tactical book on the other and there is no historical result to weight. The matchup instead rests on the ranking gap and the differing opening-round loads already established this week. That absence of precedent is the reason this fixture cannot be framed by a known stylistic or historical pattern.
- The two players had no recorded head-to-head before this match.
- Both reached this round on clay in the same October swing.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:46 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 13 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

−1.7ppshort

Straight-set finishes dominate both players' clay samples.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The higher-ranked seed has a small but real edge on clay despite modest serving numbers.
- Ranked No. 129 and seeded fourth, 104 places above Curmi
- Clay record 4-3 in the last-15 window with 50.5% of total points won
- Her clay games-won share is 54.3% (75 of 138)
- Won her opener 6-1 6-3 while Curmi needed three sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarina Bassols RiberaEstimated chance56%

Games5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Backing the seed to avoid a heavy game defeat covers most of her winning and narrow losing outcomes.
- Match-winner share of 56%
- Clay set scores rarely fall by more than two games
- Curmi's recent clay losses were by three and four games
- Bassols Ribera's only recent clay defeat was 13-15
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMarina Bassols Ribera +1.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average sits below the line.
- Bassols Ribera's clay first sets average 8.1 games
- Curmi's clay first sets average 9.1 games
- Combined first sets average about 8.6 games
- Bassols Ribera has not played a clay tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals for both players usually stay under ten games.
- Bassols Ribera's clay second sets average 8.1 games
- Curmi's clay second sets average 9.0 games
- No second-set tiebreaks recorded in either sample
- Bassols Ribera averages 5.0 games won and 3.1 lost in clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Her recent clay matches have been tight enough that a two-and-a-half-game cushion covers most outcomes.
- Only two of six recent clay matches lost by three or more games
- Recent clay margins of +6, -3, +8, +11, -4 and +5
- Clay matches average 21.1 games
- Match-winner share of 44%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesca Curmi +2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A one-game margin essentially follows her match-win chance, which the ranking and seeding support.
- Match-winner share of 56% on the evidence
- Clay games won 75 of 138 (54.3%)
- Only one of her seven clay matches was a straight-set loss
- Recent clay margins of +8 and +6 in wins
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMarina Bassols Ribera -0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Curmi has kept almost every recent clay match within one game, so a one-and-a-half-game cushion is a slight favourite.
- Recent clay margins of +6, -3, +8, +11, -4 and +5
- Four of six recent clay matches won
- Match-winner share of 44%
- Averages 4.9 and 5.0 games won in clay first and second sets
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFrancesca Curmi +1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two players' recent clay totals sit either side of the line, with Curmi's matches trending slightly longer.
- Curmi's clay matches average 21.1 games
- Bassols Ribera's clay matches average 19.7 games
- Curmi has played two clay tiebreaks
- Curmi's recent clay margins per match average nearly four games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' clay samples.
- Nine of Curmi's fourteen clay matches ended in straight sets
- Four of Bassols Ribera's seven clay matches ended in straight sets
- Combined clay set average is about 2.4
- Bassols Ribera won her opener in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The seed's strong second-set record supports a modest edge.
- Bassols Ribera is 5-2 in clay second sets
- Curmi is 8-6 in clay second sets
- Bassols Ribera averages 5.0 second-set games won and 3.1 lost
- Curmi won her recent second set 7-5
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMarina Bassols RiberaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The seed's slightly better first-set record and clean opening round give her a small edge.
- Bassols Ribera is 4-3 in clay first sets
- Curmi is 7-7 in clay first sets
- Bassols Ribera took her opener 6-1
- Curmi lost her opener 4-6
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarina Bassols RiberaEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay sets have generally finished without reaching 6-6.
- Two tiebreaks across both players' combined clay sets
- Bassols Ribera has not played a clay tiebreak
- Curmi's two tiebreaks came in fourteen matches
- First sets average 8.1 to 9.1 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance87%

Prediction history

Marina Bassols Ribera: 4/6 recent winner projections matched

4 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Marina Bassols Ribera matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marina Bassols Ribera6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Toronto

#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva2-1#130Marina Bassols Ribera

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·62%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

WTA Toronto

#120Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva2-1#130Marina Bassols Ribera

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

62%probability

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva won

Missed

17 Jul·WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#218Maria Lourdes Carle

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·58%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#218Maria Lourdes Carle

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

58%probability

Marina Bassols Ribera won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#227Anna-Lena Friedsam

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·65%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Kitzbuhel

#144Marina Bassols Ribera2-0#227Anna-Lena Friedsam

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

65%probability

Marina Bassols Ribera won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#147Lola Radivojevic1-2#143Marina Bassols Ribera

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·58%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#147Lola Radivojevic1-2#143Marina Bassols Ribera

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

58%probability

Marina Bassols Ribera won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA Modena

#144Marina Bassols Ribera1-2#102Darja Semenistaja

BetBugsMarina Bassols Ribera to win·60%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#144Marina Bassols Ribera1-2#102Darja Semenistaja

Marina Bassols Ribera to win

60%probability

Darja Semenistaja won

Missed

Previous match context available

Marina Bassols Ribera

7W 8L

6-1 6-3#539Ida Wobker

6-4 7-6(2)#69Kamilla Rakhimova

6-4 6-4#201Xiaodi You

6-1 6-1#1027Olivia Nicholls

6-3 3-6 6-4#148Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-4 6-2#284Eva Bennemann

6-2 6-1#148Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-3 6-2#166Martyna Kubka

4-6 7-6(0) 6-3#174Darya Astakhova

6-4 6-3#75Sinja Kraus

6-0 2-6 6-3#211Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-2 3-6 6-4#90Darja Vidmanova

3-6 6-4 6-1#75Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-1#238Maria Lourdes Carle

0-6 6-1 6-1#256Arantxa Rus

Francesca Curmi

9W 6L

4-6 7-5 6-0#176Eva Vedder

7-6(4) 6-4#311Alisa Oktiabreva

6-3 6-1#350Miriam Bianca Bulgaru

6-1 6-0#762Maayan Laron

6-7(6) 6-3 6-4#283Joelle Steur

6-1 2-6 6-2#144Veronika Erjavec

6-4 7-5#232Nuria Brancaccio

6-3 2-6 6-4#231Berfu Cengiz

6-3 1-6 4-4 ret.#457Emma Lene

6-1 6-4#443Carmen Gallardo Guevara

6-1 6-1#209Francisca Jorge

6-1 7-5#301Martina Trevisan

5-7 6-3 6-2#441Katerina Tsygourova

6-2 6-2#493Pia Lovric

6-3 6-2#295Nastasja Mariana Schunk

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMarina Bassols RiberaRibera

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Francesca CurmiCurmiFC

Francesca Curmi carries the stronger recent form — Marina Bassols Ribera's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.5%+13.2pp75.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1560.9%+3.0pp57.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1542.5%—42.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/150.8+0.30.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/155.63.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1545.5%+4.4pp49.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1545.1%+8.9pp54.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.2%+3.3pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.7%+2.4pp52.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+13.2pp75.7%

60.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp57.9%

42.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—42.9%

0.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.30.5

5.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

45.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.4pp49.9%

Pressure · 1–1

45.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.9pp54.0%

56.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp52.1%

Marina Bassols Ribera

Francesca Curmi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marina Bassols Ribera +1.5

Marina Bassols Ribera

Under 2.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games5 of 7 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Marina Bassols Ribera

Francesca Curmi

Stat Battle