Jinan - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Keegan Smith #202United States2Vit Kopriva #68Czechia1

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 6-3Wed 14 Oct 2026, 07:25 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions0–10%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVit Kopriva · 134 places

Keegan Smith

United States

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the structured ranking and form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 201 cm

Vit Kopriva

Czechia

Reached career-high No. 55 in May 2026 after his first Masters 1000 fourth round in Madrid. ATP lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #68
Peak ranking: #55 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 15:42 · Europe/Bucharest

A second-round first meeting in Jinan between a No. 68 who has been losing to top-50 opposition and a lower-ranked opponent with the bigger serve and a 2024 Jinan semifinal behind him.

Kopriva, fresher after a 47-minute opener, is the likelier winner, but 1.45 asks for far more than his 4-11 run supports. Smith at 2.6 is the one quoted price that offers anything.

Context

Kopriva's opening match lasted only 47 minutes: he led Pavel Kotov 6-1, 4-1 when Kotov retired, so he reaches this round with minimal competitive court time in Jinan. Smith was on court for 119 minutes the same day, winning 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 over Stefanos Sakellaridis, a three-set path that included a tight opening tiebreak. On a Challenger schedule where the second round can follow on the next day, that gap in physical load is the clearest asymmetry between the two. The counterpoint is that the short opener also gave Kopriva less time to find timing on the venue's hard courts, having lost his previous hard-court match in straight sets.
- Kopriva led Pavel Kotov 6-1, 4-1 when Kotov retired, ending the match after 47 minutes.
- Smith beat Stefanos Sakellaridis 7-6, 3-6, 6-3 in a 119-minute opening-round match .
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 13 Oct 2026
Smith's serve is the clearest weapon on the evidence: 68.8% of first serves in and 9.3 aces a match over 15 tracked matches, plus 71.9% of first-serve points won and 68.6% of break points saved. The counterpoint is that it has not turned into results — 6 wins in those 15 matches, 47.8% of games and 49.4% of total points won. It is a small sample, but the service gap is why this match looks closer than the ranking suggests.
- Over 15 tracked matches to 6 October 2026, Smith landed 843 of 1,226 first serves (68.8%) and averaged 9.3 aces.
- He won 71.9% of first-serve points (606/843) and saved 68.6% of break points (72/105) in the same 15-match window.
- He also won only 47.8% of games (185/387) and 49.4% of total points (1,213/2,453).
Smith's single previous visit to Jinan, in 2024, produced a semifinal run that ended against Yibing Wu, who then won the title. That is the only evidence of him handling this venue, and it frames his return as a player with a positive reference point here. The limitation is the two-year gap and a field that has changed since; nothing from 2024 sets his level for this second-round match.
- Smith's only previous Jinan appearance ended in the 2024 semifinals against Yibing Wu, who went on to win the tournament.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 13 Oct 2026
There is no shared match history between Smith and Kopriva, so neither player carries a known matchup pattern into this fixture. The contrast in their profiles is the more useful guide: Kopriva reached a career-high No. 55 in May 2026 and prefers clay, while Smith is a 201-cm hard-court player ranked outside the top 200. With no head-to-head to lean on, the opening rounds' contrasting workloads and current form carry more weight than any historical pattern.
- Smith and Kopriva have no previous head-to-head record.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 13 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kopriva is much higher ranked and has been competing against stronger opponents than Smith, and his light opening workload leaves him fresher for this match.
- Kopriva ranked No. 68, Smith No. 202; first career meeting
- Kopriva 4-11 in last 15, but all recent opponents ranked 84 or higher, including No. 31, 39 and 42
- Kopriva converted 37% of break points and saved 53.8%; Smith saved 68.6%
- Kopriva needed only 47 minutes in his Jinan opener; Smith 119 minutes
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVit KoprivaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players give away double faults at a steady rate, and their combined average lands slightly above the line.
- Kopriva averages 3.4 double faults per match across 15 matches
- Smith averages 2.3 double faults per match across 15 matches
- Combined per-match average of 5.7 sits just above the 5.5 line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's serve produces a heavy ace count and Kopriva adds a modest share of his own, putting the combined expectation right around the line.
- Smith averages 9.3 aces per match across 15 tracked matches
- Kopriva averages 4.3 aces per match across 15 tracked matches
- Combined per-match average of 13.6 sits just above the 13.5 line
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Vit Kopriva: 5/8 recent winner projections matched

5 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Vit Kopriva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Vit Kopriva8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jun·ATP Mallorca

#105Damir Dzumhur0-2#64Vit Kopriva

BetBugsVit Kopriva to win·62%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

ATP Mallorca

#105Damir Dzumhur0-2#64Vit Kopriva

Vit Kopriva to win

62%probability

Vit Kopriva won

Matched

4 Jun·Prostejov - Czech Republic

#210Vitaliy Sachko2-1#66Vit Kopriva

BetBugsVit Kopriva to win·72%

Missed

4 Jun 2026

Prostejov - Czech Republic

#210Vitaliy Sachko2-1#66Vit Kopriva

Vit Kopriva to win

72%probability

Vitaliy Sachko won

Missed

2 Jun·Prostejov - Czech Republic

#444Andrej Martin0-2#66Vit Kopriva

BetBugsVit Kopriva to win·78%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

Prostejov - Czech Republic

#444Andrej Martin0-2#66Vit Kopriva

Vit Kopriva to win

78%probability

Vit Kopriva won

Matched

28 May·ATP Roland Garros

#69Martin Landaluce3-2#66Vit Kopriva

BetBugsVit Kopriva to win·58%

Missed

28 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#69Martin Landaluce3-2#66Vit Kopriva

Vit Kopriva to win

58%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

8 May·ATP Rome

#33Ugo Humbert2-0#55Vit Kopriva

BetBugsVit Kopriva to win·58%

Missed

8 May 2026

ATP Rome

#33Ugo Humbert2-0#55Vit Kopriva

Vit Kopriva to win

58%probability

Ugo Humbert won

Missed

Keegan Smith

6W 9L

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#505Hiroki Moriya

6-4 7-6(4)#340Mitchell Krueger

6-4 3-6 7-5#576Bryce Nakashima

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#580Kaylan Bigun

6-2 7-6(4)#264Dylan Dietrich

6-3 4-6 6-2#350Edward Winter

7-6(1) 6-7(2) 6-4#340Mitchell Krueger

7-6(4) 6-3#184Alexis Galarneau

4-6 6-3 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 7-6(3)#207Luka Pavlovic

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(4)#597Paul Inchauspe

6-4 6-2#648Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

7-6(4) 6-4#530Digvijaypratap Singh

6-1 6-3#491Niels Mcdonald

6-4 6-4#114Zsombor Piros

Vit Kopriva

4W 11L

6-3 6-1#39Zizou Bergs

7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(8)#84Alex Molcan

6-2 6-3#42Denis Shapovalov

6-4 7-5—Jia Hu

6-3 6-4 6-0#31Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-5 6-4#110Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#168Gauthier Onclin

7-6(5) 6-4#48Quentin Halys

6-4 6-2#19Jiri Lehecka

6-4 6-4#184Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-7(3) 6-1#36Ignacio Buse

6-1 6-3#97Dino Prizmic

6-3 7-5 6-2#91Jan Choinski

5-7 7-5 6-3#66Ethan Quinn

7-5 6-1#36Ignacio Buse

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KSKeegan SmithSmith

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Vit KoprivaKoprivaVK

Keegan Smith carries the stronger recent form — Vit Kopriva's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In68.8%+9.5pp59.3%

1st Serve Won71.9%+3.1pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won50.7%+4.2pp46.5%

Aces / Match9.3+5.04.3

Double Faults / Match2.31.1 fewer3.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won33.7%—33.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted30.1%+6.9pp37.0%

Break Pts Saved68.6%+14.8pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.4%+2.7pp46.7%

Serve · 5–0

68.8%1st Serve In+9.5pp59.3%

71.9%1st Serve Won+3.1pp68.8%

50.7%2nd Serve Won+4.2pp46.5%

9.3Aces / Match+5.04.3

2.3Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

33.7%Return Pts Won—33.6%

Pressure · 1–1

30.1%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp37.0%

68.6%Break Pts Saved+14.8pp53.8%

Points · 1–0

49.4%Total Pts Won+2.7pp46.7%