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Predictions graded

Ilya Ivashka #237Belarus0Marat Sharipov (RUS) #234Russia1

Sets 3-4Wed 14 Oct 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarat Sharipov · 3 places

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #234
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 22:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifiers meet five weeks after Ivashka beat Sharipov in a Shanghai Challenger final settled by a tiebreak, and both arrive in Jinan off straight-set qualifying wins.

Ivashka's hard-court record makes him the marginal pick, but the match sits close to a coin flip. The quoted prices do offer something: 2.2 on Ivashka to win the match and 2.05 on him to take the first set.

Context

Their only completed meeting came in a Challenger final five weeks before this fixture, on the same Chinese hard-court swing, and the deciding set went to a tiebreak. Sharipov won the second set and forced that decider, so the result is a close reference rather than a one-sided one. The final's stakes and context differ from a first-round match at this event, so the scoreline identifies the matchup without settling it.
- Ivashka won the Shanghai Challenger final 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9-7).
- It was the pair's only recorded meeting and decided a Challenger 100 title.
- Ivashka beat Luca Castelnuovo 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals; Sharipov beat Pavel Kotov 6-3, 7-5 to reach the final.
- Defending champion Giulio Zeppieri did not defend the title.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Shanghai Challenger – Singlesen.wikipedia.org · 13 Sep 2026
This is his first title at Challenger level and it came on the same Chinese hard-court swing as this fixture, so it is the most direct evidence of his current level. The straight-sets final over a player then ranked near No. 190 shows he can close out a full week at this tier. He has not won another title since, so the open question is consistency rather than peak level.
- Sharipov won the Guangzhou Challenger title with a 6-0, 6-3 final win over Pavel Kotov.
- The result put him inside the Top 250 for the first time.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest
A mid-match retirement six days before this event is the only recent interruption to his schedule and makes his physical state a reasonable question for a hard-court match. He answered the immediate part of it by completing two qualifying wins without dropping a set. Because he has played and won since, the retirement is worth monitoring rather than treating as an active problem.
- Sharipov retired against Omar Jasika at 6-3, 3-0 .
- He returned the next week to win two straight-sets Jinan qualifying matches.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Sharipov's recent hard-court run has been built on the second set, where he has lost only once.
Sharipov has won 13 of his 14 second sets in this hard-court sample and closed 10 of the 14 matches in straight sets. That makes the second set the stage where he is hardest to break, though the sample covers little more than a month and excludes one retirement. Ivashka won 8 of 15 second sets in his own sample, so the edge is real without being overwhelming.
- 13 of 14 second sets won across 14 completed hard-court matches, 12 September to 13 October 2026, with one retirement excluded
- 10 of those 14 matches finished 2-0 in Sharipov's favour and he lost only twice in the window

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 Winnernot gradableUncertainty band: Slight lean

Marat Sharipov

1.65fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 60.6%

−6.6ppshort

Sharipov has been notably strong in second sets, winning 13 of 14, which gives him a small edge when the match reaches that stage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Ivashka has the better hard-court record over this stretch and won the pair's only meeting, a three-set final decided by a tiebreak, arriving sharp after qualifying without losing a set.
- 12-3 on hard in Last-15, winning 24 of 35 sets and 53.8% of total points
- Beat Sharipov 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9-7) in their only meeting, the Shanghai Challenger final
- Came through Jinan qualifying without dropping a set (6-0 6-4, 6-2 6-4)
- Held serve on 53.1% of break points saved; converted 40.3% of break points
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableIlya IvashkaEstimated chance52%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent matches finish in two sets, keeping the game count below 21.5 more often than not.
- Sharipov has finished 10 of his 12 wins in straight sets
- Ivashka's 22.1 average includes five three-set matches
- Straight-set outcomes account for the majority of both recent records
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have mostly been settled around 9-10 games and the combined average sits just below the line.
- Ivashka's 15 first sets average 9.3 games
- Sharipov's 14 first sets average 9.6 games
- Combined first-set average sits near the line
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-set averages for both players sit at or just above the line, so a total over 9.5 is marginally more likely.
- Ivashka's second sets average 9.7 games
- Sharipov's second sets average 9.5 games
- Two second-set tiebreaks in Sharipov's 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players close out most of their matches in straight sets, especially Sharipov, whose wins have come in two sets 10 times in 12.
- Sharipov's 14 hard-court matches produced a straight-set result 11 times
- Ivashka has won 7 of 15 matches 2-0 and lost 3 of 15 0-2
- Sharipov's second-set record is 13-1
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Sharipov has been notably strong in second sets, winning 13 of 14, which gives him a small edge when the match reaches that stage.
- 13 of 14 second sets won on hard in Last-14
- He dropped only one second set in that span
- He won his most recent match 6-3 6-2
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableMarat SharipovEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Ivashka has started strongly in this stretch, winning 11 of 15 opening sets, though against a near-even opponent the edge is small.
- 11 of 15 first sets won on hard in Last-15
- He took the opening set 6-4 in the pair's only meeting
- He opened qualifying with 6-0 and 6-2 first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Winnernot gradableIlya IvashkaEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' short samples show tiebreaks in only a minority of matches, so no tiebreak is more likely.
- Ivashka had 4 of 15 matches with a tiebreak
- Sharipov had 5 of 14 matches with a tiebreak
- Combined samples show more matches without a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Ilya Ivashka

12W 3L

6-2 6-4#386Kaichi Uchida 6-0 6-4#503Beibit Zhukayev

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-4#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-3#277Yi Zhou

6-4 4-6 6-2#185Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-3#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(5) 6-4#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 4-6 6-1#324Akira Santillan

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#277Yi Zhou

7-6(4) 6-4#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#656Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#811Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#323Gonzalo Villanueva

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

12W 3L

6-3 6-2#357Jake Delaney

6-1 6-0—Zhe Jiang

6-3 3-0 ret.#422Omar Jasika

7-5 6-4#432Semen Pankin

6-2 7-6(5)#194Andre Ilagan

3-6 6-3 6-1#126Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-3#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(11) 6-2#607Naoya Honda

6-0 6-3#187Pavel Kotov

7-5 6-3#278Petr Bar Biryukov

7-6(4) 6-3#192Elias Ymer

4-6 7-6(6) 6-3#110Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-3#697Thomas Fancutt

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#237Ilya Ivashka

6-3 7-5#187Pavel Kotov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IIIlya IvashkaIvashka

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)M(

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Ilya Ivashka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.2%+1.0pp61.2%

1st Serve Won77.7%+2.4pp80.1%

2nd Serve Won53.2%+3.3pp56.5%

Aces / Match4.5+6.110.6

Double Faults / Match2.71.3 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.7%+1.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.3%+3.3pp43.6%

Break Pts Saved53.1%+19.1pp72.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won53.8%+1.0pp54.8%

Serve · 1–4

62.2%1st Serve In+1.0pp61.2%

77.7%1st Serve Won+2.4pp80.1%

53.2%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp56.5%

4.5Aces / Match+6.110.6

2.7Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.4

Return · 1–0

40.7%Return Pts Won+1.0pp39.7%

Pressure · 0–2

40.3%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp43.6%

53.1%Break Pts Saved+19.1pp72.2%

Points · 0–1

53.8%Total Pts Won+1.0pp54.8%

Ilya Ivashka

Marat Sharipov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov (RUS) 2-0

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Ilya Ivashka

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

Stat Battle