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Predictions graded

Ilya Ivashka #237Belarus2Beibit Zhukayev #503Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-0 · 6-4Sun 11 Oct 2026, 07:21 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlya Ivashka · 266 places

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Beibit Zhukayev

Kazakhstan

ATP's Kazakhstan rankings listing showed Zhukayev aged 25 and ranked No. 316 in the latest indexed update. Reliable public sources in these searches did not confirm a career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #503
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 05:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Ivashka, ranked 237 and a Shanghai Challenger champion on 13 September, meets the 503rd-ranked Zhukayev, whose only previous meeting with him went to a final-set tiebreak.

Ivashka should win, and his recent hard-court scorelines make a three-set win a live possibility. At 1.29 to win and 1.36 for the first set there is nothing to take; the 3.75 on Ivashka winning 2-1 is the one quoted price that offers anything.

Context

Ivashka arrives with a hard-court title from four weeks earlier in the same region, ending a six-year wait for a Challenger trophy and lifting his ranking back toward the top 230. That run required five matches in Shanghai, so he carries more recent winning form on outdoor hard than his qualifying draw position suggests. The margins were thin, though: both championship points he saved came in the final-set tie-break, and he has not competed at tour level since, so the title is a form marker rather than proof of a current level.
- Won the Shanghai Challenger title
- Defeated Marat Sharipov 6-4 3-6 7-6(7), saving two championship points
- Fifth career ATP Challenger title and first since Ortisei in 2020
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 05:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Zhukayev lost in straight sets to a player outside the top 650 in the Wuning 3 first round, so he arrives at Jinan without a singles win in more than a month. The result is a direct form signal for this fixture because it is his only completed match in the current Chinese hard-court swing. His two August matches show he has played little, so the loss may reflect rust rather than a settled level, but there is no current evidence of a better recent baseline.
- Lost 6-4 6-4 to Yaroslav Demin at Wuning 3
- Demin was ranked 653, far below Zhukayev's ranking
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 05:18 · Europe/BucharestFlashscorewww.flashscore.com · 5 Oct 2026
Zhukayev's serve is the part of his game most likely to keep this qualifying tie competitive.
A serve producing double-figure aces per match shortens points and can hold sets together even against a higher-ranked returner, so a one-way scoreline is not the only plausible shape here. It also makes any straight-sets read riskier, since a single break can decide a set. The counterweight is that the same 15-match sample shows him converting only 31 of 96 break points, 32.3%, so the serve has to carry the scoreboard.
- Averaged 10.0 aces per match across 15 recorded matches, 150 aces in total
- Sample runs through his most recent completed match on 5 October 2026
Ivashka's recent hard-court record has produced deciding sets almost as often as quick finishes.
Seven of those 15 matches reached a deciding set and the matches averaged 24.1 games, so a long, tight contest is a familiar shape rather than an outlier. That matters in a best-of-three qualifying tie, where one break can swing a set. The other side is that five of the 15 ended in a 2-0 win and 10 of 15 first sets went his way, so a quick finish is also within his recent record.
- Hard-court record of 11-4 across 15 matches from 18 July to 13 September 2026
- Scorelines: six 2-1 wins, five 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss
- Average 24.1 total games and 2.47 sets per match in that window

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilya Ivashka

1.29fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 77.5%

−0.5ppshort

Ivashka has much stronger ranking and recent hard-court results, so he is clearly favored.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilya Ivashka

1.36fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 73.5%

−4.5ppshort

Ivashka has a much better first-set record on hard, so he is favored to take the opener.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Ivashka has much stronger ranking and recent hard-court results, so he is clearly favored.
- Ivashka is ranked 237, Zhukayev 503.
- Ivashka is 11-4 on hard in his last 15; Zhukayev is 4-5 on hard in his last 9.
- Ivashka won the Shanghai Challenger on 13 Sep, saving two championship points in the final.
- Zhukayev lost his latest match 4-6 4-6 to Yaroslav Demin, ranked 653, on 5 Oct.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance77%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average is just above 9.5, so over is slightly favored.
- Ivashka's first sets average 9.93 total games on hard.
- Zhukayev's first sets average 10.0 total games on hard.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.96 games.
- 5 of 24 combined first sets reached a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just above 23.5, so over is slightly more likely than under.
- Ivashka's hard-court matches average 24.13 total games.
- Zhukayev's hard-court matches average 23.22 total games.
- Combined average is about 23.8 total games, just above the line.
- Their combined three-set rate is 10 of 24 matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is just above 9.5, so over is slightly more likely.
- Ivashka's second sets average 9.4 total games on hard.
- Zhukayev's second sets average 9.78 total games on hard.
- Combined second-set average is about 9.54 games.
- Only 2 of 24 combined second sets reached a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Ivashka has a much better first-set record on hard, so he is favored to take the opener.
- Ivashka is 10-5 in first sets on hard in his last 15.
- Zhukayev is 3-6 in first sets on hard in his last 9.
- Ivashka has the higher ranking and stronger recent form.
- Zhukayev lost his most recent match in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight sets are the more common outcome in their hard-court record, so under 2.5 is favored.
- 14 of 24 combined hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
- Ivashka's hard-court scorelines include five 2-0 wins.
- Zhukayev's hard-court scorelines include three 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses.
- Combined average sets per match is about 2.4.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka is the stronger player overall, but second sets have been less dominant for him.
- Ivashka is 7-8 in second sets on hard in his last 15.
- Zhukayev is 6-3 in second sets on hard in his last 9.
- Ivashka's overall hard-court record is 11-4, much stronger than Zhukayev's 4-5.
- Zhukayev's second-set record is better than his first-set record.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double-fault numbers on hard, so under 7.5 is favored.
- Combined hard-court average is 5.9 double faults per match.
- Ivashka averages 3.0 double faults per match on hard.
- Zhukayev averages 2.9 double faults per match on hard.
- Ivashka averages 3.0 double faults in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their combined hard-court matches did not feature a tiebreak, so no is favored.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 9 of 24 hard-court matches.
- Ivashka had no tiebreak in 9 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Zhukayev had no tiebreak in 6 of 9 hard-court matches.
- Many of their sets end with a single break.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court average is below the line, so under is slightly favored.
- Combined hard-court average is 13.8 aces per match.
- Ivashka averages 4.6 aces per match on hard.
- Zhukayev averages 9.2 aces per match on hard.
- Zhukayev's overall average is 10.0 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 14.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W3-6 6-3 7-6(5)Ilya Ivashka#237vBeibit Zhukayev#503Aug 1, 2023

1 total meetings

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-4#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-3#277Yi Zhou

6-4 4-6 6-2#185Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-3#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(5) 6-4#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 4-6 6-1#324Akira Santillan

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#277Yi Zhou

7-6(4) 6-4#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#656Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#811Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#323Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#153Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#339Tiago Pereira

Beibit Zhukayev

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#653Yaroslav Demin

6-3 6-4#317Mert Alkaya

6-3 6-4#618Amir Omarkhanov

7-6(7) 6-7(4) 6-2#727Yusuke Takahashi

6-2 6-1#213Liam Broady

7-6(7) 6-4#505Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-2#412Masamichi Imamura

6-3 4-6 7-6(4)#109Sho Shimabukuro

4-6 6-4 6-4#757Uisung Park

4-6 6-3 6-4#64James Duckworth

7-5 7-6(5)#477Corentin Denolly

6-1 6-4—Alejandro Hayen

6-2 6-3#64James Duckworth

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-4#646Dan Martin

7-6(7) 1-6 6-4#586Robin Catry

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IIIlya IvashkaIvashka

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Beibit ZhukayevZhukayevBZ

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Beibit Zhukayev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.7%—61.0%

1st Serve Won76.0%+1.7pp74.3%

2nd Serve Won54.3%+6.8pp47.5%

Aces / Match4.6+5.410.0

Double Faults / Match3.01.8 fewer4.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.9%+3.3pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.8%+7.5pp32.3%

Break Pts Saved54.8%+13.1pp67.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+2.7pp49.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.7%1st Serve In—61.0%

76.0%1st Serve Won+1.7pp74.3%

54.3%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp47.5%

4.6Aces / Match+5.410.0

3.0Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer4.8

Return · 1–0

38.9%Return Pts Won+3.3pp35.6%

Pressure · 1–1

39.8%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp32.3%

54.8%Break Pts Saved+13.1pp67.9%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+2.7pp49.8%

Ilya Ivashka

Beibit Zhukayev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilya Ivashka 2-1

Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Ilya Ivashka

Beibit Zhukayev

Stat Battle