Lilli Tagger #61Austria11 – 2Nikola Bartunkova #34Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Bartunkova is the higher-ranked player and has by far the better recent results, including straight-sets wins over Sabalenka and Muchova.

• Last 15 hard matches: 10-5, 59.5% of sets won, 55.2% of games won
• Beat No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 6-3 and No. 8 Karolina Muchova 6-3 6-0 in Beijing
• Ranked No. 34 against No. 61, at a career high reached this month
• Five matches in Beijing, the last a 6-2 6-2 semi-final loss on 10 October

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tagger has been competitive in almost every recent match, keeping the margin inside six games far more often than not.

• Tagger has won 55.7% of games over 15 hard matches
• Only two of her recent six matches were decided by more than five games
• Bartunkova's recent defeats came by -8 and -5 games
• Tagger won her last completed win 6-3 6-1 against Robin Montgomery

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Tagger's hard-court game numbers match Bartunkova's, which points to a close match with a small final margin.

• Tagger's recent winning margins: +8 against Montgomery, +7 against Korpatsch
• Her four recent defeats came by -6, -5, -5 and -5 games
• Both players have won 55-56% of their games in this window
• Bartunkova's most recent match ended 2-6 2-6

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets are usually settled inside ten games, with Tagger's opponents rarely getting past four games.

• Tagger loses only 3.73 games per second set
• Bartunkova loses 4.33 games per second set
• Tiebreaks are rare in the second set for both players
• Only one of Tagger's 15 second sets reached a tiebreak

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Bartunkova starts matches at a slightly higher level and has the better first-set game difference of the two.

• Bartunkova has won the first set in 9 of 15 hard matches
• She averages 5.33 games won and 4.07 lost in first sets
• Tagger has won the first set in 9 of 15 hard matches
• Tagger's first-set averages are 5.07 won and 4.00 lost

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player serves at a rate that suggests ten or more aces in a match that will often last two sets.

• Tagger: 72 aces in 15 hard matches (4.8 per match)
• Bartunkova: 68 aces in 15 hard matches (4.5 per match)
• Combined expectation of about 9.3 aces
• Bartunkova's low first-serve rate of 50.6% limits free points

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players give away double faults regularly and their combined average is already above the line.

• Bartunkova averages 3.7 double faults per match over 15 hard matches
• Tagger averages 3.1 double faults per match
• Combined per-match average is about 6.8
• Bartunkova lands only 50.6% of first serves