Peyton Stearns #63United States11 – 2Nikola Bartunkova #46Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Bartunkova's superior recent grass form and higher-quality wins give her a clear edge, supported by her strong serve and return stats on the surface.

• Bartunkova has a 6-3 grass record in 2026, including a Birmingham 125 final run, while Stearns is 1-1 on grass this year with a loss to Birrell (rank 73).
• Bartunkova's recent form includes wins over top-30 players Mertens (26) and Shnaider (16) on grass, and a tight loss to world #1 Sabalenka.
• Stearns' last 5 matches: 2 wins (Appleton 449, Snigur 78) and 3 losses (Birrell 73, Bencic 12, Kasatkina 68), with the grass loss to Birrell being a straight-set defeat.
• Bartunkova holds a higher career win percentage (67.6% vs 57.9%) and a stronger deciding-set win rate (60% vs 48%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their break-point efficiency point to a longer match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Bartunkova's last 5 matches averaged 25.6 games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5 games.
• Stearns' last 5 matches averaged 19.8 games, but her grass match had 18 games and her losses to top players often exceed 20 games.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Bartunkova 49.5%, Stearns 48.7%) and moderate hold rates, suggesting multiple breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players indicate a competitive start likely to exceed 9.5 games.

• Bartunkova's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 — averaging 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Stearns' last 5 first sets: 5-7, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 — averaging 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, suggesting a tight opening set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Bartunkova's trend of winning first sets against quality opponents, combined with Stearns' recent first-set struggles, makes Bartunkova the likely set 1 winner.

• Bartunkova has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches, including against Sabalenka and Mertens.
• Stearns lost the first set in her only grass match this year (vs Birrell) and in 3 of her last 5 overall.
• Bartunkova's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Bartunkova's high double-fault rate, combined with Stearns' moderate rate, makes over 7.5 double faults likely.

• Bartunkova has a high double-fault rate of 9.8% (career), averaging ~6.4 double faults per match.
• Stearns has a double-fault rate of 5.3%, averaging ~3.5 per match.
• Combined, they average nearly 10 double faults per match, and Bartunkova's aggressive second serve often leads to more errors.