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Predictions graded

Elias Ymer #192Sweden0Mattia Bellucci #86Italy2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Tue 13 Oct 2026, 08:58 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMattia Bellucci · 106 places

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Former world No. 105. Public results indexed for 2026 show retirements in March, but no current-tournament or last-30-days fitness report was found.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #105
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Italian left-hander whose ATP career-high ranking is No. 63, achieved in July 2025. Official player profiles list hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 09:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Ymer and Bellucci meet again seven days after Bellucci won their Shanghai qualifier in two tie-break sets, and Bellucci, the higher-ranked eighth seed, is the likely winner.

The quoted prices point to the other side: Ymer to win at 4.75, to take the first set at 3.5 and the second at 3.8 are the three selections that offer value, while Bellucci at 1.15 for the match and 1.25 and 1.22 for the sets asks more than his record justifies.

Context

The Shanghai meeting went to two tie-break sets after Bellucci lost the opener, so the most recent contest between these two was settled by the smallest margins. It is the only current head-to-head sample available and it warns against treating the ranking difference as decisive. Seven days is enough time for form and conditions to change, so the result is a reference point rather than a direct read on the rematch.
- Bellucci won 5-7 7-6(4) 7-6(3)
- First qualifying round of the Shanghai Masters
- Played
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 09:07 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 5 Oct 2026
Bellucci came through qualifying and beat Yanki Erel 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal to reach his second Challenger final of the season. It is the strongest recent body of work either player brings into Jinan, showing him winning matches at the level just below the main tour. The run ended in defeat to Harris, who saved two championship points, so it is a form signal rather than a title.
- Reached his second ATP Challenger final of the season
- Beat Yanki Erel 6-4 6-4 in the semifinal
- Lost the final 1-6 6-3 7-6(4) after Harris saved two championship points
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 09:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Bellucci is protected in the draw as the eighth seed, while Ymer needed a withdrawal to enter the field as an alternate, which maps the ranking gap between them. The seed line also reflects the different levels of opposition each has faced recently. It does not change either player's tennis, so it frames the matchup rather than deciding it.
- Bellucci seeded eighth in the Jinan singles main draw
- Ymer entered the main draw as an alternate
- Rankings used were those of 5 October 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 09:07 · Europe/BucharestWikipedia – 2026 Jinan Openen.wikipedia.org · 10 Oct 2026
Ymer's set records in that sample are 6-7 in first sets and 4-9 in second sets, so the opener has been his better phase. Six straight-set defeats in 13 completed matches show how rarely he has pulled a match back once behind. The same sample excludes two retirements, so these are completed-match results only.
- 13 completed hard-court matches from 25 July to 5 October 2026, excluding two retirements
- scorelines: 0-2 six times, 1-2 three times, 2-0 three times, 2-1 once
- first sets 6-7; second sets 4-9 across the same 13 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The higher-ranked player has won more hard-court matches, holds serve far more securely, and beat the same opponent a week ago.
- No. 86 Bellucci is 9-6 on hard in the tracked window; No. 192 Ymer is 4-9
- Bellucci on hard: 55.2% games won, 75.5% first-serve points won, 8.3 aces per match
- Bellucci won their Shanghai qualifying meeting 5-7 7-6(4) 7-6(3) seven days ago
- Bellucci is seeded eighth in Jinan; Ymer entered as an alternate
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance69%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players tend to run longer than the line, especially on Ymer's side.
- Bellucci's second sets average 9.5 total games on hard
- Ymer's second sets average 10.8 total games
- Four second-set tiebreaks across the two players' 26 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' matches sit right around the line, and their head-to-head and recent outings have run long.
- Bellucci's hard matches average 23.9 games, Ymer's 24.3
- Their Shanghai meeting produced 35 games
- Bellucci's most recent match produced 32 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's opening sets tend to be settled before a tiebreak, which keeps the games count modest.
- Bellucci's first sets average 9.2 total games on hard
- Bellucci has had no first-set tiebreak in 13 hard matches
- Ymer's first sets average 10.1 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's second-set record on hard is clearly stronger and Ymer's drops off noticeably.
- Bellucci is 9-4 in second sets on hard
- Ymer is 4-9 in second sets on hard
- Bellucci won the second set in each of his last three completed matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci has started sets better than Ymer across the tracked window and leads on serve.
- Bellucci is 9-4 in first sets on hard
- Ymer is 6-7 in first sets on hard
- Bellucci won the first set in two of his last three completed matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are the single most common result for both players, so under three sets is the more likely shape.
- Bellucci's average is 2.46 sets per hard match, Ymer's 2.31
- Straight-set results account for 16 of the 26 combined hard scorelines
- Bellucci won 2-0 six times in 13, Ymer lost 0-2 six times in 13
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks on hard, and their head-to-head went to tiebreaks twice.
- Bellucci had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard matches
- Ymer had a tiebreak in 7 of 13 hard matches
- Their Shanghai meeting contained two tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance54%

Prediction history

Mattia Bellucci: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mattia Bellucci matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mattia Bellucci5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·58%

Matched

14 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#157Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·72%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#78Mattia Bellucci2-0#303Mikhail Kukushkin

Mattia Bellucci to win

72%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Matched

2 Jun·Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·62%

Missed

2 Jun 2026

Birmingham - Great Britain

#73Mattia Bellucci0-2#152Alex Bolt

Mattia Bellucci to win

62%probability

Alex Bolt won

Missed

24 May·ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

24 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#88Quentin Halys3-0#72Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Quentin Halys won

Missed

11 May·ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

BetBugsMattia Bellucci to win·55%

Missed

11 May 2026

ATP Rome

#80Mattia Bellucci0-2#94Martin Landaluce

Mattia Bellucci to win

55%probability

Martin Landaluce won

Missed

Elias Ymer

5W 10L

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#86Mattia Bellucci

3-6 6-3 6-4#147Federico Cina

4-6 7-5 5-5 ret.#99Terence Atmane

7-5 7-6(5)#184Alexis Galarneau

7-6(4) 6-3#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(6) 6-4#455Luca Castelnuovo

5-7 7-5 6-3#432Semen Pankin

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#187Pavel Kotov

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-2 7-6(5)#131Cristian Garin

6-4 6-3#265Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-3#178Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-4#440Paul Jubb

6-3 7-5#147Federico Cina

6-0 7-6(5)#486Trevor Svajda

Mattia Bellucci

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#277Yi Zhou

6-4 6-2#133Alexandre Muller

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#192Elias Ymer

1-6 6-3 7-6(4)#110Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#300Yanki Erel

7-5 6-2#98Adam Walton

6-0 6-3#133Alexandre Muller

6-2 6-2#550Keisuke Saitoh

6-2 6-4#661Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-4#70Kamil Majchrzak

6-0 6-1 6-1#12Taylor Fritz

6-4 6-2 6-0#114Zsombor Piros

2-6 6-4 6-2#21Luciano Darderi

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#73Martin Landaluce

7-5 2-6 7-6(5)#15Jakub Mensik

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EYElias YmerYmer

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Mattia BellucciBellucciMB

Mattia Bellucci carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.1%—61.8%

1st Serve Won68.6%+6.9pp75.5%

2nd Serve Won51.8%+1.6pp53.4%

Aces / Match6.5+1.88.3

Double Faults / Match3.00.6 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won34.2%+4.7pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.6%+1.6pp37.0%

Break Pts Saved65.2%+1.5pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.5%+3.9pp52.4%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

61.1%1st Serve In—61.8%

68.6%1st Serve Won+6.9pp75.5%

51.8%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp53.4%

6.5Aces / Match+1.88.3

3.0Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

34.2%Return Pts Won+4.7pp38.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.6%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp37.0%

65.2%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

48.5%Total Pts Won+3.9pp52.4%