FranceRoanne - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #189France2Liam Broady #213United Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Mon 12 Oct 2026, 14:39 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSascha Gueymard Wayenburg · 24 places

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #189
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

British left-hander, 32, ranked No. 203 with hard courts listed as his preferred surface. He has spent 2026 largely on the Challenger and qualifying circuit, with four wins in his last 15 matches.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 01:59 · Europe/Bucharest

Gueymard Wayenburg's indoor hard run meets Broady's one win in nine on the surface at Roanne.

The home player is the likelier winner, most plausibly in straight sets. None of the quoted prices is worth taking: 1.33 on the match winner sits on the form, 1.43 on the first set and 1.88 on a 2-0 win ask more than it supports, and 1.43 on the second set carries no clear advantage.

Context

Gueymard Wayenburg carries the stronger current form into this match, and the run was built on the same indoor hard surface used at Roanne. The 6-2 6-0 defeat to Chidekh in the Mouilleron-le-Captif final is the limitation: against a higher-ranked opponent his level dropped sharply, so the nine-match streak reflects Challenger-level consistency rather than a guaranteed edge. Broady, ranked No. 213, has won only three of his last 15 matches.
- Gueymard Wayenburg beat Harold Mayot 4-6 6-3 7-5 in the Rennes final for his second career Challenger title
- He reached a second consecutive ATP Challenger final at Mouilleron-le-Captif before losing 6-2 6-0 to Clement Chidekh
- The Rennes title moved him from No. 332 to No. 217 in the ATP rankings
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Droguet was the highest-ranked opponent Gueymard Wayenburg beat during the run, and the win required recovering from a set down and erasing three match points. It shows the streak contained at least one hard-fought win over a top-100 player rather than only comfortable results against lower-ranked opposition. The limitation is that it is a single match from mid-September and does not by itself indicate how he handles a left-handed opponent.
- Gueymard Wayenburg saved three match points to upset second seed Titouan Droguet 4-6 7-6(8) 6-3
- Droguet was the second seed in Rennes and was ranked inside the top 100 at the time
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 01:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Broady has stretched opponents in games even while winning only one of nine hard-court matches in that window.
That 25.3-game average sits above the 22.1 Gueymard Wayenburg has produced across his own hard-court sample, and four of the nine went the distance. He still dropped seven of nine opening sets, so the longer matches have not put him in winning positions.
- Broady's nine hard-court matches from 29 June to 30 September 2026 averaged 25.3 total games
- Scorelines in that sample: four 1-2 losses, four 0-2 losses and one 2-0 win
- He won two of nine first sets and four of nine second sets
Second sets have been his strongest stretch in that window: 12 wins from 15, averaging 5.27 games to 3.80. Two-set wins are his most common recent result rather than an occasional one, though Broady has taken a set in four of his own nine hard-court matches.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's 15 hard-court matches from 31 August to 4 October 2026 produced eight 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses
- He won 26 of 36 sets on the surface (72.2%)
- Set 2 record: 12-3, averaging 5.27 games to 3.80

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

1.33fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 75.2%

−0.2ppshort

Gueymard Wayenburg has been winning consistently on hard this past month while Broady has lost eight of nine on the surface.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

1.43fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 69.9%

−0.9ppshort

Gueymard Wayenburg starts hard-court matches strongly while Broady has consistently lost opening sets this season.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg 2-0

1.88fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 53.2%

−5.2ppshort

Gueymard Wayenburg's recent hard-court wins have usually come in straight sets, and Broady has often been beaten without taking a set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg has been winning consistently on hard this past month while Broady has lost eight of nine on the surface.
- Hard-court last 15: 12-3, 72.2% of sets won, 56.2% of games won and 52.7% of total points
- Won the Rennes Challenger and reached the Mouilleron-le-Captif final in the weeks before Roanne
- Saved 65.4% of break points and converted 50.6% on this surface
- Broady is 1-8 on hard in the same window, winning 27.3% of sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance75%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If the favourite wins as his form suggests, the match is likely to finish below the line in two reasonably quick sets.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's hard-court matches average 22.1 total games
- Broady's hard-court matches average 25.3 total games
- Combined scoreline mix favours short straight-set results
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's weak first-set game count points to a shorter opening set, keeping the total below the line more often than not.
- Home first-set games average 9.07; away 9.67
- Gueymard Wayenburg has won 10 of 15 first sets, often with a break
- Broady's first sets average 4.44 games won
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's second sets have been long and even, which pushes the total above the line slightly more often than not.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's second sets average 9.07 games
- Broady's second sets average 10.89 games
- Broady's second-set games are 5.44 for and 5.44 against
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg's second sets have been his strongest stretch, while Broady has been close to even at best there.
- Won the second set in 12 of 15 hard-court matches
- Second-set games 5.27 to 3.80 on average
- Broady's second-set record on hard is 4-5
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg starts hard-court matches strongly while Broady has consistently lost opening sets this season.
- Won the first set in 10 of 15 hard-court matches
- First-set games 5.07 to 4.00 on average
- Broady has won only 2 of 9 first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two-set finishes have been the most common shape for both players, particularly when the favourite is on form.
- Gueymard Wayenburg: eight 2-0 results in 15 hard-court matches
- Broady beaten 0-2 in four of nine hard-court matches
- Straight sets account for 9 of 24 combined recent scorelines
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both players have generally been settled without tiebreaks.
- 13 of Gueymard Wayenburg's 15 hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- 6 of Broady's 9 hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Combined hard-court tiebreak rate is near one set in ten
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With Broady serving few aces and the favourite's matches often short, the combined total is more likely to fall short.
- Gueymard Wayenburg 119 aces in 15 hard-court matches
- Broady 33 aces in 9 hard-court matches
- Gueymard Wayenburg averages 93.6 minutes per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's low first-serve percentage and high double-fault rate make the over the slightly better-supported side.
- Broady averages 4.3 double faults per match on hard
- Gueymard Wayenburg averages 2.5 per match on hard
- Broady's first-serve-in rate on hard is 56.3%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg1-2#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·55%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg1-2#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

55%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Missed

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-1#528Alexander Donski

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-1#528Alexander Donski

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

62%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Matched

22 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-0#609Gabriel Ghetu

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-0#609Gabriel Ghetu

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

65%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Matched

29 Apr·Aix-en-Provence - France

#93Roberto Bautista-Agut2-0#262Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·60%

Missed

29 Apr 2026

Aix-en-Provence - France

#93Roberto Bautista-Agut2-0#262Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

60%probability

Roberto Bautista-Agut won

Missed

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

12W 3L

6-2 6-0#146Clement Chidekh

6-4 6-2#176Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-3 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-4#168Gauthier Onclin

6-4 7-5#296Pierre-Hugues Herbert

4-6 6-3 7-5#186Harold Mayot

4-6 7-6(8) 6-3#72Titouan Droguet

6-0 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 6-4#305Ugo Blanchet

6-4 6-3#640Maxime Janvier

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#149Mark Lajal

6-0 6-1#789Mae Malige

3-6 6-2 6-2#282Michele Ribecai

6-4 6-1#522Sergio Callejon Hernando

3-6 6-4 6-4#428Izan Almazan Valiente

Liam Broady

3W 12L

6-4 3-6 6-1#263Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#163Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-5#369Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#408Ozan Baris

7-5 5-7 6-4#260Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-5#393Yuta Shimizu

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#115Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 7-6(6)#35Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#194Andre Ilagan

7-6(4) 6-3#115Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#401Jack Kennedy

6-1 6-2#247Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#236August Holmgren

7-5 6-2#82Zachary Svajda

6-2 6-4#231Raul Brancaccio

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SWSascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburg

Last 15

9–0

9 core stats · 0 even

Liam BroadyBroadyLB

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg carries the stronger recent form — Liam Broady's route runs through double faults / match.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In61.2%+3.0pp58.2%

1st Serve Won75.4%+4.6pp70.8%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+2.2pp48.7%

Aces / Match7.9+4.03.9

Double Faults / Match2.50.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.5%+2.7pp35.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.6%+20.0pp30.6%

Break Pts Saved65.4%+3.7pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.7%+4.2pp48.5%

Serve · 5–0

61.2%1st Serve In+3.0pp58.2%

75.4%1st Serve Won+4.6pp70.8%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp48.7%

7.9Aces / Match+4.03.9

2.5Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

38.5%Return Pts Won+2.7pp35.8%

Pressure · 2–0

50.6%Break Pts Converted+20.0pp30.6%

65.4%Break Pts Saved+3.7pp61.7%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won+4.2pp48.5%