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Predictions graded

Alejandro Tabilo #301Pablo Carreno-Busta #65Spain2

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 4-6Sat 10 Oct 2026, 06:36 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Tabilo · 35 places

Alejandro Tabilo

Reached career-high No. 19 in July 2024 and lists clay as his preferred surface. The left-hander has also won ATP titles on hard and grass.

Current ranking: #30
Peak ranking: #19 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 10 on 11 September 2017. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #65
Peak ranking: #10 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Tabilo arrives in Shanghai on a first-round bye, while Carreno-Busta spent two hours 50 minutes winning a three-set opener on 8 October.

Tabilo is the likelier winner, though his hard-court record in this window is only 7-6 and he lost his last match. The two prices worth a look are over 23.5 games at 2.10 and Tabilo covering a 0.5-game handicap at 1.60; his plain match win at 1.55 is no bargain.

Context

Carreño Busta spent two hours 50 minutes on court in the opening round and had two days to recover, while Tabilo arrives with no completed match at this event and no accumulated court time at the venue. The trade-off is freshness against rhythm: the longer this match runs, the more the 35-year-old's heavier recent load tends to matter, while Tabilo has to find the court and the conditions without a competitive outing. Carreño Busta's opening round also shows he held up physically in a long contest, saving six break points in the first game of the deciding set against Navone.
- Carreño Busta lost the first set before winning 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in the Shanghai first round.
- The first-round match lasted two hours 50 minutes.
- Carreño Busta saved six break points in the opening game of the deciding set, while Navone converted none of his eight break points in that set.
- Tabilo, seeded for the tournament, received a first-round bye and begins in the second round.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/BucharestADN Radiowww.adnradio.cl · 8 Oct 2026
Hard courts are the surface on which both players have played most of their recent matches, but each lists clay as his preferred surface, so neither arrives at a venue built around his natural game. Carreño Busta has already had a full competitive outing on the courts, whereas Tabilo's first appearance at the site comes in this match, which puts his adjustment and the early exchanges among the practical questions. The Saturday slot follows a rest day for both players, so the only preparation difference lies in the first-round bye rather than the scheduling itself.
- The tournament is played on outdoor hard courts at the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena.
- First-round play at the venue began on Wednesday .
- The second-round match is scheduled for the early hours of Saturday 10 October in Chilean time.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/BucharestRedGolredgol.cl · 8 Oct 2026
The section immediately above this match is unresolved, with Camilo Ugo Carabelli and the fourth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime meeting for the right to play the second-round winner. That makes the following round a step into either a player outside the top 50 or one of the leading seeds in the draw, so what a win here is worth depends on the other result. For Carreño Busta, unseeded and ranked 65th, it defines the size of the opportunity: a seeded opponent or a lower-ranked one for a place in the last 32 of a Masters 1000.
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli plays fourth seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the first round.
- The winner of that match meets the winner of Tabilo against Carreño Busta in the third round.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/BucharestADN Radiowww.adnradio.cl · 8 Oct 2026
The Chile-Spain Qualifier in Santiago was Tabilo's most recent appearance for his country and came three weeks before this match, ending with a loss to a Spanish opponent, the same nation Carreño Busta represents. He has played three tour matches since, winning one, so the Davis Cup weekend marks the start of the run that leads into Shanghai. He won the opening set 7-5 before losing the next two 6-3, 6-3, the most recent full-length look at where his level sat.
- Tabilo lost the opening singles rubber to Daniel Mérida 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 .
- Spain took a 2-0 lead on the first day, after Rafael Jódar beat Cristian Garín 6-0, 6-2.
- Tabilo was listed to partner Tomás Barrios in the Sunday doubles against Pedro Martínez and Jaume Munar.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Tabilo is higher-ranked, has been in better hard-court form, and should be fresher after a bye while Carreno-Busta had a long match two days ago.
- Tabilo is ranked 30th and holds a 7-6 record on hard courts over his last 13 matches.
- Carreno-Busta is ranked 65th and has a 4-4 hard-court record in his last 8 matches.
- Tabilo received a first-round bye and last played on 3 October, while Carreno-Busta played a three-set match lasting two hours 50 minutes on 8 October.
- Tabilo won the most recent head-to-head 6-2 6-1 in May 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlejandro TabiloEstimated chance66%

Games5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in these players' recent hard-court matches have averaged around 10 games, making over 9.5 the more likely outcome.
- Tabilo's set1 average games on hard courts is 10.1.
- Carreno-Busta's set1 average games on hard courts is 10.0.
- Both players have had tiebreaks in first sets this period (Tabilo 2, Carreno-Busta 1).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Carreno-Busta is competitive on hard courts and Tabilo does not often win by large margins, so a handicap of +4.5 games is likely to cover.
- Carreno-Busta has won three of his last five hard-court matches, with margins of +3, +5, and +5.
- Tabilo's straight-set wins account for 42% of matches, leaving 58% either three-set or Carreno-Busta wins, where margins are often smaller.
- Tabilo has won only two of his last five hard-court matches, and one was by just two games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPablo Carreno-Busta +4.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
This handicap is equivalent to Tabilo winning the match, and he is favored for the reasons above.
- Tabilo is ranked 30th and holds a 7-6 hard-court record in his last 13 matches.
- Carreno-Busta is ranked 65th and has a 4-4 hard-court record in his last 8 matches.
- Tabilo received a bye and is fresher than Carreno-Busta, who played a long three-setter on 8 October.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlejandro Tabilo -0.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
This handicap covers Carreno-Busta wins plus many narrow Tabilo wins, giving it a solid chance.
- Carreno-Busta's match-win probability is 34%, and Tabilo wins by three or fewer games are also possible.
- Tabilo's three-set wins often have margins of one or two games.
- Carreno-Busta's recent hard-court losses were by six games, but he has kept wins close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPablo Carreno-Busta +3.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tabilo is favored and most of his wins will be by two or more games, though a one-game margin is possible.
- Tabilo's match-win probability is 66%, and only a fraction of his wins are by exactly one game.
- Tabilo has won two of his last five hard-court matches, both by at least two games.
- Carreno-Busta's recent hard-court wins were by three, five, and five games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlejandro Tabilo -1.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Tabilo's matches on hard courts have averaged 24.3 total games, and Carreno-Busta's recent three-setter suggests a longer match is slightly more likely.
- Tabilo's hard-court set evidence shows an average of 24.3 total games per match.
- Carreno-Busta's hard-court set evidence shows an average of 21.9 total games per match.
- Carreno-Busta's most recent match had 31 games, and Tabilo's last three hard-court matches had 31, 15, and 20 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabilo's second sets tend to go slightly longer, while Carreno-Busta's are shorter, leaving a modest lean to over 9.5.
- Tabilo's set2 average games on hard courts is 10.2.
- Carreno-Busta's set2 average games on hard courts is 9.4.
- The combined average is near the line of 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both players have a majority of straight-set matches in their recent best-of-three hard-court evidence, favoring under 2.5 sets.
- Tabilo's hard-court set evidence shows 60% of his matches ended in straight sets.
- Carreno-Busta's hard-court set evidence shows 71% of his matches ended in straight sets.
- Tabilo has won two of his last five hard-court matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Tabilo has a slight edge in overall quality and freshness, but first sets are often close.
- Tabilo's set1 record on hard courts is 5-5 in his last 10 matches.
- Carreno-Busta's set1 record on hard courts is 4-3 in his last 7 matches.
- Tabilo is ranked 30th and received a bye, while Carreno-Busta is ranked 65th and played a long match two days ago.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlejandro TabiloEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
The second set should follow a similar pattern, with Tabilo slightly favored due to overall form.
- Tabilo's set2 record on hard courts is 5-5 in his last 10 matches.
- Carreno-Busta's set2 record on hard courts is 4-3 in his last 7 matches.
- Tabilo's overall hard-court form is slightly better than Carreno-Busta's.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlejandro TabiloEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Based on recent evidence, tiebreaks are relatively uncommon in these players' hard-court matches.
- Tabilo has had a tiebreak in only 4 of his last 10 hard-court matches.
- Carreno-Busta has had a tiebreak in only 1 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
- Most of their recent hard-court sets did not reach a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-2 6-1Alejandro Tabilo#30vPablo Carreno-Busta#65May 6, 2026

L6-4 7-6(4)Alejandro Tabilo#30vPablo Carreno-Busta#65Jan 1, 2022

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Alejandro Tabilo

7W 8L

7-5 3-6 6-4#42Denis Shapovalov

6-1 6-2#17Tommy Paul

6-4 6-4#83Adrian Mannarino

5-7 6-3 6-3#44Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-2 7-6(2) 6-2#2Alexander Zverev

2-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-2#129Alexei Popyrin

6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3#57Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-1#13Rafael Jodar

6-3 6-4#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-4 7-6(4)#34Hubert Hurkacz

6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#13Rafael Jodar

4-6 7-5 6-4#4Ben Shelton

6-3 7-6(6)#99Terence Atmane

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#58Tallon Griekspoor

6-4 6-4#365Tiago Torres

Pablo Carreno-Busta

7W 8L

4-6 7-5 6-3#47Mariano Navone 6-4 6-2#5Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-4#83Adrian Mannarino

7-5 6-3#277Yi Zhou

6-1 7-6(5) 4-6 6-2#19Jiri Lehecka

6-4 3-0 ret.#52Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(5) 6-1#23Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#75Tomas Machac

1-6 7-5 6-2#105Valentin Royer

6-3 4-6 6-2#45Luca Van Assche

6-1 6-3#141Vilius Gaubas

3-6 7-5 7-5#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-4 6-2#174Matej Dodig

3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4#13Rafael Jodar

6-3 7-6(7) ret.#42Denis Shapovalov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ATAlejandro TabiloTabilo

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-BustaPC

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.5%+2.0pp65.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1574.4%+6.5pp67.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.0%+1.5pp50.5%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/156.9+3.83.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.40.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1534.2%+4.2pp38.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1538.2%+1.6pp39.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1557.7%+6.7pp64.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.3%—50.4%

Serve · 4–1

63.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.0pp65.5%

74.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.5pp67.9%

52.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.5pp50.5%

6.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.83.1

2.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.4 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

34.2%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.2pp38.4%

Pressure · 0–2

38.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp39.8%

57.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.7pp64.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—50.4%

Alejandro Tabilo

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Alejandro Tabilo -0.5

Alejandro Tabilo

Over 23.5

Under 2.5

Alejandro Tabilo

Alejandro Tabilo

Result0 of 1 landed

Games5 of 7 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Tabilo

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Stat Battle