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Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #368Switzerland0Max Alcala Gurri #138Spain2

Sets 1-6 · 0-6Thu 8 Oct 2026, 09:18 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions9–0100%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMax Alcala Gurri · 230 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #368
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

Born 11 September 2002. His ranking rose from No. 417 at year-end 2025 to No. 171 in the Hamburg draw, and he won the Cordenons Challenger on 19 July 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #138
Peak ranking: #171
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 21:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Second seed Max Alcala Gurri against qualifier Patrick Schoen pits the ranking gap against the form book: Alcala Gurri is 8-3 on clay and usually wins in straight sets, while Schoen has won 14 of his last 15.

Alcala Gurri is the likelier winner, but his 1.4 match price and 1.44 opening-set price both ask for more than his record supports. Neither is worthwhile.

Context

Schoen's 14-1 record is the main reason this looks closer than a 230-place ranking gap suggests, and it includes three straight-set clay wins in the first week of October. The caveat is the level of opposition: the beaten opponents in those recent matches were ranked 244 to 681, while Alcala Gurri sits at 138 as the second seed.
- 14 wins from 15 tracked matches, latest 7 October 2026.
- 4-1 across five completed clay matches from 31 August to 7 October 2026.
- Three straight-set clay wins in October 2026: 6-1 7-6(1) v Nedic (244), 6-1 6-2 v Misolic (471), 6-1 6-3 v Barroso Campos (681).
- Recent beaten opponents ranked 244 to 681.
Alcala Gurri's clay record is built on quick, two-set wins, and he has taken the opening set in eight of 11 matches in this window. That makes a straight-sets night for the second seed the most plausible shape of this match, though he also dropped two of the 11 in straight sets himself.
- 8-3 in 11 completed clay matches, 23 July to 7 October 2026; three retirements were excluded from the sample.
- Six of the 11 ended 2-0, two ended 2-1, and he lost two in straight sets.
- Won the opening set in 8 of 11 and the second set in 7 of 11, with no tiebreak in any of his 11 clay second sets.
, Schoen completed a 6-1, 7-6(1) win after qualifying, whereas Alcala Gurri began as the No. 2 seed and beat Dali Blanch 6-1, 6-2. That gives this second round a qualifier-versus-seed context rather than a meeting between two direct entrants. Schoen has already negotiated qualifying in Braga before reaching this stage. Their lack of a previous meeting leaves no matchup-specific result to add to the tournament context.
- Schoen qualified for the main draw before his 6-1, 7-6(1) first-round win over Nedic .
- Alcala Gurri entered as the second seed and beat Blanch 6-1, 6-2 in the first round.
- The players have no prior recorded meeting.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 21:51 · Europe/BucharestMatchstat Braga Challenger 2026matchstat.com · 7 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Max Alcala Gurri

1.40fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 71.4%

−7.4ppshort

Alcala Gurri has been beating better-ranked clay opponents than Schoen has faced and holds a clear ranking and seeding advantage.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Max Alcala Gurri

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

−9.4ppshort

Alcala Gurri has started clay matches strongly and usually takes the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Alcala Gurri has been beating better-ranked clay opponents than Schoen has faced and holds a clear ranking and seeding advantage.
- Ranked 138 against 368, and seeded second in Braga
- 8-3 in 11 completed clay matches, with recent wins over players ranked 287-384
- Won set one in 8 of 11 clay matches and set two in 7 of 11
- Six of his 11 clay matches finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance64%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players win most of their clay matches in straight sets with fairly one-sided scorelines, which keeps total games short.
- Schoen's five clay matches average 19.4 total games
- Alcala Gurri's 11 clay matches average 20.5 total games
- Alcala Gurri's straight-set wins in the sample finished at 15-19 games, Schoen's at 13-16
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 19.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players have usually ended around 6-2 or 6-3, keeping the game count below 9.5.
- Schoen's clay first sets average 8.2 games
- Alcala Gurri's clay first sets average 8.9 games
- No tiebreak in Schoen's 5 clay first sets and only one in Alcala Gurri's 11
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set game counts for both players sit just below the 9.5 line on average.
- Schoen's clay second sets average 9.2 games
- Alcala Gurri's clay second sets average 8.9 games
- Alcala Gurri has no tiebreak in any of his 11 clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have repeatedly closed clay matches in two sets during this window.
- Schoen's clay set average is 2.2 per match
- Alcala Gurri's clay set average is 2.27 per match
- Straight-set scorelines account for 9 of the 16 combined clay matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Alcala Gurri has started clay matches strongly and usually takes the opening set.
- Won set one in 8 of 11 completed clay matches
- Averages 5.5 games won against 3.4 lost in set one
- Only one of his 11 clay set-one contests reached a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Alcala Gurri's second-set record on clay is positive and he has closed matches without a decider more often than not.
- Won set two in 7 of 11 completed clay matches
- Schoen won set two in 3 of 5 clay matches
- No tiebreak in any of Alcala Gurri's 11 clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMax Alcala GurriEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay matches for both players have been decided with margins well clear of a tiebreak.
- 2 of 16 combined clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Schoen's clay first sets have averaged 8.2 games
- Alcala Gurri's clay first sets have averaged 8.9 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Patrick Schoen

14W 1L

6-1 7-6(1)#244Andrej Nedic 6-1 6-2#471Filip Misolic 6-1 6-3#681Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#470Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#649Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#396Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#594Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#728Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

7-6(3) 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-1 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

6-4 6-2#197Facundo Mena

6-4 2-6 6-4#592Matyas Fuele

Max Alcala Gurri

10W 5L

6-1 6-2#325Dali Blanch

6-4 6-2#343Jonas Forejtek

6-4 6-3#361Carlos Taberner

5-2 ret.#215Pol Martin Tiffon

6-3 6-2#335Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-4 6-2#384Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 3-0 ret.#148Dusan Lajovic

6-1 5-7 6-3#287Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(6)#410Pavel Lagutin

6-1 7-5#449Gerard Campana Lee

0-6 6-0 6-2#197Facundo Mena

4-6 6-4 3-0 ret.#310Sean Cuenin

6-2 6-1#114Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-4#346Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-3#264Dylan Dietrich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Max Alcala GurriGurriMG

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Max Alcala Gurri's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.5%+19.6pp76.1%

1st Serve Won70.9%+8.2pp62.7%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+8.9pp44.9%

Aces / Match3.6+2.90.7

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.6%+2.3pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.0%+4.3pp46.3%

Break Pts Saved64.7%+9.4pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.1%+3.3pp51.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

56.5%1st Serve In+19.6pp76.1%

70.9%1st Serve Won+8.2pp62.7%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+8.9pp44.9%

3.6Aces / Match+2.90.7

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.5

Return · 1–0

47.6%Return Pts Won+2.3pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

42.0%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp46.3%

64.7%Break Pts Saved+9.4pp55.3%

Points · 1–0

55.1%Total Pts Won+3.3pp51.8%