PortugalBraga - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #362Switzerland2Alberto Barroso Campos #705Spain0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:29 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Schoen · 343 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #362
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alberto Barroso Campos

Spain

Barroso Campos, 30, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 316 in August 2024; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #705
Peak ranking: #316 · 2024
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 09:06 · Europe/Bucharest

A clear ranking gap, but on clay: Schoen (No. 362) has won 12 of his last 15 completed matches, though his six most recent wins all came on hard courts, and Barroso Campos (No. 705) is 6-9 with one clay match on record, a 1-6 5-7 loss.

Schoen is the likely winner. At 1.3 the price asks about 77% and the evidence does not reach it, so no quoted price here is worth backing.

Context

Schoen's clay sample sits level at 2-2 with fewer than half the games won, so his recent hard-court run does not carry across in the record.
Four completed clay matches is a thin base, but they show Schoen winning under half the games and losing both recent clay outings in straight sets, so this surface narrows a ranking gap of more than 300 places rather than widening it.
- Schoen's four same-surface best-of-three clay matches (19 July to 1 September 2026) produced 2 wins and 2 losses, 42 of 87 games won (48.3%) and 4 of 9 sets (44.4%).
- Scorelines in that sample: two 0-2 defeats, one 2-1 win and one 2-0 win, with no tiebreaks; set one averaged 10.0 games and set two 9.25 games, for 21.75 games per match.
- Across the same four matches his average match length was 97.1 minutes and he won 48.8% of total points (274 of 562).
The 10:30 Court 1 listing fixes the immediate setting for this qualifying fixture. It is relevant fixture context because it identifies the match's place in the day's court sequence. The listing does not provide a player-specific preparation, fitness, or court-condition factor.
- The Court 1 order of play lists Schoen versus Barroso Campos at 10:30, between the Esculcas-Misolic and Nijboer-Hipfl matches.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 09:04 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple match listingen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026
The Schwaerzler loss was Barroso Campos's most recent recorded match before Braga. It gives the fixture a concrete short-term competitive reference immediately before this qualifying appearance. The result contains no retirement, walkover, medical timeout, or other availability issue.
- Barroso Campos's qualifying match against Joel Schwaerzler ended 6-3, 7-5.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 09:04 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore player resultswww.flashscore.com · 29 Sep 2026
Barroso Campos has a single completed clay match on file, a 6 September 2026 defeat to Jonas Forejtek (No. 337).
One match is far too small a sample to treat as a surface pattern, but it is the only clay reference for him here, and it ended 1-6 5-7 with six games won, leaving his level on the surface genuinely uncertain going into this qualifying round.
- Barroso Campos's only completed same-surface best-of-three clay match in the sample was on 6 September 2026, a 1-6 5-7 loss to Jonas Forejtek (No. 337).
- In that match he won 6 of 19 games (31.6%), 0 of 2 sets, saved 1 of 6 break points and hit 5 double faults.
- The clay sample covers one match only, so it cannot establish a stable surface rate.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Patrick Schoen

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Schoen is the higher-ranked, better-performing player over the last 15 matches and has far more recent clay evidence, even if that clay record is only level.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Schoen is the higher-ranked, better-performing player over the last 15 matches and has far more recent clay evidence, even if that clay record is only level.
- Schoen 12-3 in his last 15 with 53.3% of total points won; Barroso Campos 6-9 with 49.5%
- Ranking gap: 362 against 705
- On clay Schoen is 2-2 with 42 of 87 games (48.3%); Barroso Campos 0-1 with 6 of 19 games
- Schoen arrived on six straight completed wins, all on hard court
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most likely scorelines here are straight-set wins, and short sets would keep the match total under the line.
- Schoen's clay matches average 21.75 total games; 2 of 4 were straight sets
- Barroso Campos' clay match had 19 games
- Schoen's hard-court wins this month averaged roughly 13-14 games conceded per match
- Set totals in the clay samples: 10.0 games in set one, 9.25 in set two
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's clay first sets have averaged exactly at this line, and clay sets without tiebreaks still commonly reach 10 games through breaks.
- Schoen's clay first sets average 10.0 total games
- Barroso Campos' only clay first set had 7 games
- Neither player has a tiebreak in a clay set in the sample
- Schoen's clay first sets: 5.25 games won, 4.75 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets in the clay sample have been competitive, with Barroso Campos' only one reaching 12 games and Schoen losing most of his.
- Schoen's clay second sets average 9.25 total games
- Barroso Campos' only clay second set had 12 games (5-7)
- Schoen lost 3 of 4 clay second sets
- Barroso Campos' recent matches include several 7-5 and 7-6 sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's overall quality and ranking advantage make him the likely first-set winner, and Barroso Campos was well beaten in his only clay opening set.
- Schoen is 2-2 in first sets on clay in the window
- Barroso Campos is 0-1 in first sets on clay, losing it 1-6
- Schoen's clay first sets average 10.0 games
- Schoen won 12 of his last 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen remains the stronger player across a full match, and Barroso Campos has not won a clay set in this sample.
- Schoen is 1-3 in second sets on clay in the window
- Barroso Campos lost his only clay second set 5-7
- Schoen's clay second sets average 9.25 games
- Barroso Campos' overall last-15 set win rate is 45.7%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate the limited clay evidence for both players, and the ranking gap points to a shorter match.
- Schoen's clay sample contains 2 straight-set losses and 1 straight-set win from 4 matches
- Barroso Campos' single clay match was 0-2
- Set-one record on clay 2-2 for Schoen, 0-1 for Barroso Campos
- Average sets per match 2.25
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The clay evidence shows sets decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks, so a match without one is the more likely case.
- Zero tiebreaks across Schoen's 4 clay matches
- Zero tiebreaks in Barroso Campos' clay match
- Clay sets in the sample average 10.0 and 9.25 games
- Most recent clay scorelines were 6-4, 7-5 and 6-3 types
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined clay ace rates point to a modest total, particularly if the match ends in two sets.
- Schoen averages 4.5 aces per clay match; Barroso Campos averages 3.3 overall
- Barroso Campos hit no aces in his one clay match
- Schoen averages 1.5 double faults per clay match
- Clay reduces free points on serve
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's low double-fault rate offsets Barroso Campos' higher one, keeping the combined total around the line.
- Schoen averages 1.5 double faults per clay match
- Barroso Campos averages 3.4 per match over his last 15
- Barroso Campos' clay sample is one match with 5 double faults
- Combined per-match average sits near the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance54%

Patrick Schoen

12W 3L

6-2 6-2#478Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#643Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#387Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#652Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#724Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

7-6(3) 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-1 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

6-4 6-2#190Facundo Mena

6-4 2-6 6-4#583Matyas Fuele

6-2 6-3#1576Boris Arias

7-5 7-5#293Mili Poljicak

6-1 3-6 6-3#290Carl Emil Overbeck

Alberto Barroso Campos

6W 9L

6-3 7-5#185Joel Schwaerzler

5-7 6-4 6-2#367Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-2#481Thijs Boogaard

5-7 7-6(1) 6-1#654Alec Deckers

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 7-5#850Kenny de Schepper

6-1 7-5#337Jonas Forejtek

7-5 6-2#874Andrea Colombo

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-1—Alexander Bravo

6-4 6-7(4) 6-4#339Tiago Pereira

6-1 6-2—Salvador Monteiro

6-2 7-5#419Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-7(1) 6-3 6-3#388Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-3#177Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#632Guillaume Dalmasso

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Alberto Barroso CamposCamposAC

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Alberto Barroso Campos's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In57.7%+2.2pp59.9%

1st Serve Won71.7%+1.0pp72.7%

2nd Serve Won52.5%+3.4pp49.1%

Aces / Match4.3+1.03.3

Double Faults / Match1.91.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.9%+7.3pp36.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted40.1%+1.0pp39.1%

Break Pts Saved64.5%+13.3pp51.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.3%+3.8pp49.5%

Serve · 3–2

57.7%1st Serve In+2.2pp59.9%

71.7%1st Serve Won+1.0pp72.7%

52.5%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp49.1%

4.3Aces / Match+1.03.3

1.9Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

43.9%Return Pts Won+7.3pp36.6%

Pressure · 2–0

40.1%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp39.1%

64.5%Break Pts Saved+13.3pp51.2%

Points · 1–0

53.3%Total Pts Won+3.8pp49.5%