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Predictions graded

Olle Wallin #423Sweden0Lukas Neumayer #180Austria2

Sets 2-6 · 2-6Thu 8 Oct 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLukas Neumayer · 243 places

Olle Wallin

Sweden

The Swedish right-hander reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in July 2026. No reliable public source identified a declared preferred surface.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #368 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

Born 6 September 2002 in Salzburg. His ATP-provided profile lists a career-high singles ranking of No. 157, reached in August 2025.

Current ranking: #180
Peak ranking: #157 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Wallin, 423rd, meets Neumayer, 180th, in the Braga second round on clay, with Wallin carrying the better recent clay results and Neumayer the stronger ranking and opposition.

Neumayer is the more likely winner, but 1.33 demands roughly a 75% chance, far more than this match warrants, so the price on him is one to leave. Wallin at 3 is the one quoted price with a positive edge.

Context

Wallin's Braga week includes two qualifying matches before his straight-sets main-draw win, while Neumayer's first appearance was a three-set recovery against Broska. The fixture therefore follows different immediate workloads and routes through the event. The available match record gives set results but no duration, medical, or recovery information, so it establishes the schedule difference rather than either player's physical condition.
- Wallin defeated Cecchinato 2-0 in the Braga first round .
- Neumayer defeated Broska 2-1 in the Braga first round .
- Wallin and Neumayer are listed to play a Braga round-of-16 match on clay on 8 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger match detailwww.tennisexplorer.com · 7 Oct 2026
Second sets have been Wallin's most productive phase on clay this autumn, ahead of his 7-6 first-set record in the same 13-match sample.
If this match goes to a second set, Wallin's record there is the strongest part of his clay profile and gives him a route back into the contest after a slow start. The counterweight is in the same sample: his first sets are only 7-6, so he has been just as likely to begin a match behind. The window covers 13 completed matches, so this is a short-run pattern rather than a settled strength.
- Wallin has won 9 of 13 second sets in completed clay matches tracked from 9 August to 7 October 2026.
- He averages 5.31 games won and 3.77 games lost in second sets over that 13-match sample.
- His first sets in the same sample are 7-6, and his overall clay record is 9-4 from 13 completed matches.
Neumayer's clay meeting with world No. 39 Zizou Bergs shows the level he was tested at in mid-September, taking the first set before going down in three.
It is a single match rather than a form trend, but it shows Neumayer has traded sets with a top-40 player on clay this autumn, while Wallin's recent clay wins in Braga came against opponents ranked outside the top 160. The same month also brought a straight-sets loss to Luka Mikrut on 25 September, so the level has not been consistent. That is why the ranking gap frames the match without settling it.
- On 18 September 2026 Neumayer lost 6-2 4-6 2-6 to Zizou Bergs, ranked 39, on clay.
- Neumayer won the opening set of that match 6-2 before losing the next two 4-6 and 2-6.
This is a new recorded pairing at Braga, with no prior match between the players to frame the encounter. Their current routes through the tournament are therefore the direct shared reference for this fixture. The available record does not establish any previous matchup-specific pattern on clay.
- No prior head-to-head match is recorded for Wallin and Neumayer.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestBraga Challenger match detailwww.tennisexplorer.com · 7 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neumayer's higher ranking and stronger recent opponent level give him a slight edge on clay.
- Neumayer is ranked 180, 243 places above Wallin.
- Neumayer is 7-5 in 12 completed clay matches.
- Neumayer pushed top-40 Zizou Bergs to three sets on clay.
- Wallin lost to a player ranked 418 in his recent clay sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLukas NeumayerEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set game averages for both players sit around the 10-game mark, with tiebreaks a regular feature.
- Wallin's first sets average 10.15 total games on clay.
- Neumayer's first sets average 9.83 total games on clay.
- Wallin has two first-set tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Neumayer has two first-set tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players often go the distance, and their combined clay average sits just above the line.
- Wallin's clay matches average 24.2 total games.
- Neumayer's clay matches average 22.9 total games.
- Wallin has played six three-set matches in 13 clay matches.
- Neumayer has played five three-set matches in 12 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neumayer's second sets tend to be longer, pulling the combined average just above 10 games.
- Neumayer's second sets average 10.08 total games on clay.
- Wallin's second sets average 9.08 total games on clay.
- Neumayer has two second-set tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Wallin has one second-set tiebreak in 13 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's second-set record on clay is clearly stronger than Neumayer's, making him the more likely second-set winner.
- Wallin has won 9 of 13 second sets on clay.
- Neumayer has won 6 of 12 second sets on clay.
- Wallin averages 5.31 games won in second sets.
- Neumayer averages 5.0 games won in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostOlle WallinEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are slightly more common than three-set matches for both players on clay.
- Wallin's clay scorelines include five 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses.
- Neumayer's clay scorelines include three 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- Wallin's clay matches average 2.46 sets.
- Neumayer's clay matches average 2.42 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's first-set record is slightly better than Neumayer's, giving him a small early edge.
- Wallin has won 7 of 13 first sets on clay.
- Neumayer has won 5 of 12 first sets on clay.
- Wallin averages 5.0 games won in first sets on clay.
- Neumayer averages 4.83 games won in first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOlle WallinEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' clay matches finished without a tiebreak, making no the more likely outcome.
- Wallin's clay matches had no tiebreak in 9 of 13.
- Neumayer's clay matches had no tiebreak in 8 of 12.
- Wallin's clay matches average 24.2 total games.
- Neumayer's clay matches average 22.9 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Prediction history

Lukas Neumayer: 9/15 recent winner projections matched

9 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Lukas Neumayer matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Lukas Neumayer15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#149Francesco Maestrelli2-0#172Lukas Neumayer

BetBugsLukas Neumayer to win·62%

Missed

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#149Francesco Maestrelli2-0#172Lukas Neumayer

Lukas Neumayer to win

62%probability

Francesco Maestrelli won

Missed

14 Jul·ATP Umag

#162Lukas Neumayer0-2#173Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

BetBugsLukas Neumayer to win·55%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#162Lukas Neumayer0-2#173Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

Lukas Neumayer to win

55%probability

Juan Carlos Prado Angelo won

Missed

12 Jul·ATP Umag

#167Lukas Neumayer0-2#350Marko Topo

BetBugsLukas Neumayer to win·65%

Missed

12 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#167Lukas Neumayer0-2#350Marko Topo

Lukas Neumayer to win

65%probability

Marko Topo won

Missed

11 Jul·ATP Umag

#167Lukas Neumayer2-1#347Mili Poljicak

BetBugsLukas Neumayer to win·72%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#167Lukas Neumayer2-1#347Mili Poljicak

Lukas Neumayer to win

72%probability

Lukas Neumayer won

Matched

10 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#167Lukas Neumayer0-2#235Henri Squire

BetBugsLukas Neumayer to win·58%

Missed

10 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#167Lukas Neumayer0-2#235Henri Squire

Lukas Neumayer to win

58%probability

Henri Squire won

Missed

Previous match context available

Olle Wallin

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-0#163Marco Cecchinato 7-5 7-6(1)#649Tiago Cacao 1-6 6-2 7-5#633Pedro Rodenas

6-3 7-5#418Matthew William Donald

6-1 6-4#225Chun Hsin Tseng

3-6 6-2 7-5#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 7-5#196Zdenek Kolar

7-6(4) 6-4#355Norbert Gombos

7-5 6-2—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 3-6 6-4#399Johan Nikles

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)#853Andrea Colombo

4-6 6-0 6-3#893Niccolo Catini

5-7 6-2 6-3#361Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#758Niklas Guttau

6-2 1-6 7-5—Christopher Papa

Lukas Neumayer

8W 7L

4-6 6-3 6-2#334Florian Broska

6-3 6-4#167Luka Mikrut

0-6 6-4 6-1#382Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-3 7-6(4)#724Stefano D'Agostino

2-6 6-4 6-2#39Zizou Bergs

7-6(4) 6-4#230Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-5 6-7(9) 6-1#285Juan Manuel La Serna

6-4 6-2#572Svyatoslav Gulin

6-3 6-3#101Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-1 6-4#259James McCabe

5-1 ret.#224Alex Barrena

4-6 7-5 6-0#256Daniel Michalski

6-2 6-4#624Alexander Weis

6-4 6-0#171Francesco Maestrelli

7-6(5) 6-4#57Yannick Hanfmann

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OWOlle WallinWallin

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Lukas NeumayerNeumayerLN

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 13/1558.4%+6.1pp64.5%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 13/1570.7%+5.6pp65.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 13/1546.3%+13.2pp59.5%

Aces / Match13/15 · 13/155.2+2.52.7

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 13/152.51.3 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 13/1542.3%+3.8pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 13/1541.5%+1.5pp43.0%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 13/1558.2%+18.6pp39.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won13/15 · 13/1551.3%—50.6%

Serve · 2–3

58.4%1st Serve In13/15 · 13/15+6.1pp64.5%

70.7%1st Serve Won13/15 · 13/15+5.6pp65.1%

46.3%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 13/15+13.2pp59.5%

5.2Aces / Match13/15 · 13/15+2.52.7

2.5Double Faults / Match13/15 · 13/151.3 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

42.3%Return Pts Won13/15 · 13/15+3.8pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

41.5%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 13/15+1.5pp43.0%

58.2%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 13/15+18.6pp39.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 13/15—50.6%