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Predictions graded

Olle Wallin #407Sweden2Pedro Rodenas #630Spain1

Sets 1-6 · 6-2 · 7-5Sun 4 Oct 2026, 10:37 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions7–558%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOlle Wallin · 223 places

Olle Wallin

Sweden

The Swedish right-hander reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in July 2026. No reliable public source identified a declared preferred surface.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #368 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Pedro Rodenas

Spain

The Spanish left-hander is ranked outside the top 600 and plays almost exclusively on clay. Limited reliable public profile information identified for age, career-high ranking or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #630
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Wallin is ranked 215 places higher and has the better clay wins, but Rodenas owns the sharper recent clay record — 9-5 with 10 of 14 first sets and 11 of 14 second sets won.

Wallin should edge it. The 3.5 on Rodenas is the one price worth taking: it implies a 28.6% chance against a 46% reading. Wallin at 1.25, needing an 80% win rate, is one to leave.

Context

Rodenas, ranked 630, is the lower-ranked player but has been the faster starter of the two on clay in this window.
These are the most one-sided set numbers in either player's clay record, and they explain why the set-level reads lean his way despite Wallin's higher ranking. The record came largely against opponents ranked outside the top 600, and one retired match is excluded from the 14-match sample, so it is recent form rather than a settled trait. Wallin has split his own clay sets 6-6, so an early Rodenas lead is a reasonable expectation, not a certainty.
- 18 August to 1 October: 10-4 in first sets and 11-3 in second sets over 14 completed clay matches.
- Set averages: 5.6 games to 4.1 in the first, 6.0 to 3.8 in the second.
- One retired match is excluded from the sample; eight of his nine clay wins were 2-0.
Wallin, ranked 415, holds the higher ranking but has not pulled clear of clay opponents at set level.
Wallin won 53.3% of sets and 51.6% of games in the sample, so his edge on the surface has been narrow and his matches have mostly been settled before 6-6. That points to a tight contest rather than a comfortable one against Rodenas, who has taken 10 of 14 clay first sets and 11 of 14 second sets. The window is short, late July to late September, so this describes recent form rather than a long-running pattern.
- 29 July to 29 September: 12 completed clay matches, 6-6 in first sets and 6-6 in second sets.
- Tiebreaks appeared in 2 of the 12 matches; his set-one and set-two tiebreak counts were 1 and 0.
- Average 24.1 total games and 2.5 sets per match.
Rodenas, ranked 630, has the stronger recent clay record but was beaten in his last completed match.
The result shows his 9-5 clay record since 18 August includes defeats alongside the straight-set wins that built it, and it came against an opponent with no ranking listed rather than a higher-ranked one. It says nothing about his fitness for the Braga qualifier; a completed three-set match is simply a completed three-set match. It does argue against treating his win-loss column as untroubled form going into this one.
- 1 October: lost 6-4, 6-7, 4-6 to Nicolas Ifi, who has no ranking listed, in a completed clay match.
- Games in that single match: 16 won, 17 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin holds the higher ranking and has recently beaten stronger clay opposition than Rodenas has faced.
- Clay sample: 7-5 in 12 completed matches, 53.3% of sets and 51.6% of games won.
- Ranked 415, against an opponent ranked 630.
- Recent clay wins over opponents ranked 295 and 349.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOlle WallinEstimated chance54%

Games4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The extra 1.5 games protects against the narrow defeats that make up part of Wallin's clay record.
- Covers unless Rodenas wins by two games or more.
- Wallin's clay record is 7-5, with three of the five losses in straight sets.
- Rodenas cleared a two-game margin in three of his last six clay matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOlle Wallin +1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The recent clay totals for both players sit just below the line.
- Recent clay averages of about 24.1 and 23.2 total games per match.
- Only about 42% of the combined 26 clay matches went to three sets.
- Rodenas's straight-set clay wins were often 12-6 or 12-8.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 25.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's steady clay game share means he seldom finishes a match behind on games.
- Covers if Wallin wins at least as many games as Rodenas.
- Wallin has won 51.6% of clay games across 12 matches.
- Rodenas's narrow three-set defeats came with negative game margins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOlle Wallin +0.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Finishing ahead on games is close to simply winning the match, which the ranking edge slightly favours.
- Covers if Wallin wins more games than Rodenas.
- Wallin is 7-5 on clay with a 51.6% game-win rate.
- His two recent clay wins came by +3 (13-10) and +6 (13-7) games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOlle Wallin -0.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two first-set averages sit fractionally above the line.
- Wallin's clay first sets average 9.9 total games.
- Rodenas's clay first sets average 9.7 total games.
- One first-set tiebreak each across 12 and 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wallin's shorter second sets keep the combined average under the line.
- Wallin's clay second sets average 9.2 total games.
- Wallin's second sets have produced no tiebreaks in 12 clay matches.
- Rodenas's clay second sets average 9.8 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rodenas in particular has been closing out his clay wins in straight sets.
- Straight-set finishes: 6 of 12 for Wallin, 9 of 14 for Rodenas.
- Eight of Rodenas's 14 clay matches ended 2-0.
- Rodenas's average clay match lasted 2.36 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rodenas's second-set record is the strongest single split in the evidence.
- Rodenas has won 11 of 14 clay second sets, with three tiebreaks.
- He averages 6.0 games to 3.8 in second sets.
- Wallin has won 6 of 12 clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPedro RodenasEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rodenas has been the stronger starter of the two on clay.
- Rodenas has won 10 of 14 opening sets on clay.
- He averages 5.6 games to 4.1 in first sets.
- Wallin has split his 12 clay opening sets 6-6.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPedro RodenasEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these clay sets have been decided before reaching 6-6.
- Tiebreaks featured in 7 of the 26 combined clay matches.
- Wallin's clay set1 and set2 tiebreak counts are 1 and 0.
- Rodenas's clay set1 and set2 tiebreak counts are 1 and 3.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Olle Wallin

8W 7L

6-3 7-5#460Matthew William Donald

6-1 6-4#221Chun Hsin Tseng

3-6 6-2 7-5#295Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 7-5#189Zdenek Kolar

7-6(4) 6-4#349Norbert Gombos

7-5 6-2—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 3-6 6-4#391Johan Nikles

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)#874Andrea Colombo

4-6 6-0 6-3#893Niccolo Catini

5-7 6-2 6-3#376Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#755Niklas Guttau

6-2 1-6 7-5—Christopher Papa

6-1 6-4#164Andrea Guerrieri

6-4 7-5#89Jan Choinski

6-3 1-6 6-1#252Roberto Carballes Baena

Pedro Rodenas

9W 6L

4-6 7-6(6) 6-4—Nicolas Ifi

6-3 6-3#700Oscar Jose Gutierrez

6-1 2-6 7-6(2)#427Ioannis Xilas

6-4 6-4#785Michiel De Krom

7-5 6-4#548Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-2 6-4#1149Alejandro Garcia

5-7 6-1 6-3—Nikola Djukic Valera

6-2 6-2—Sergi Fita Juan

2-6 7-6(0) 6-2#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-2 7-5#533Pedro Vives Marcos

7-5 7-6(3)#1149Alejandro Garcia

6-3 6-1—Maxi Carrascosa Diaz

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#584Alejandro Juan Mano

6-4 6-1#895Tomas Curras Abasolo

6-4 4-6 3-0 ret.#631Carlos Lopez Montagud

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OWOlle WallinWallin

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Pedro RodenasRodenasPR

Pedro Rodenas carries the stronger recent form — Olle Wallin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1558.4%+7.5pp65.9%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1569.4%+5.7pp63.7%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1545.5%+1.4pp46.9%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/155.4+3.51.9

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.51.8 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1539.6%+6.7pp46.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1537.3%+1.5pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1559.8%+4.3pp55.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.8%+2.2pp52.0%

Serve · 3–2

58.4%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+7.5pp65.9%

69.4%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+5.7pp63.7%

45.5%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp46.9%

5.4Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+3.51.9

2.5Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.8 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

39.6%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+6.7pp46.3%

Pressure · 1–1

37.3%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+1.5pp38.8%

59.8%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+4.3pp55.5%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+2.2pp52.0%