Kimmer Coppejans #232Belgium00 – 2Stefanos Tsitsipas #43Greece2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas has been competing against and beating much stronger opposition than Coppejans, who has spent the week in qualifying at a lower level.

• Tsitsipas is 8-5 on hard in the tracked window and has won 52.2% of games on that surface; Coppejans is 2-2 on hard.
• Coppejans is ranked 232 and this is his first ATP Masters 1000 main draw, reached through qualifying wins over players ranked 112 and 139.
• Tsitsipas has won 74.9% of first-serve points and 34.8% of return points on hard in the same window.
• Tsitsipas's most recent hard matches include wins over Etcheverry (31), Hijikata (85) and Nishioka (218).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Against a player ranked 232, Tsitsipas's serving and baseline level should produce a margin of four games or more.

• Tsitsipas has won 52.2% of games on hard (190 of 364) in the tracked window.
• Coppejans's hard-court losses include a 1-6 4-6 defeat to Rodionov (140).
• Tsitsipas won 74.9% of first-serve points on hard.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Coppejans keeps sets competitive enough that a six-game margin is a demanding ask for Tsitsipas.

• Coppejans has conceded 5.25 games per first set on hard, keeping most sets within reach.
• Tsitsipas converted only 38.5% of break points on hard.
• Tsitsipas's set-1 games won and lost are level at 5.33 each.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas's second sets have consistently gone past nine games in the tracked hard-court sample.

• Tsitsipas's second sets on hard average 11.22 total games.
• Three second sets in his nine hard matches featured a tiebreak.
• Coppejans's second sets average 8.25 games on hard.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas starts as the stronger player on this surface, though his opening sets have been evenly contested.

• Tsitsipas has won the opening set in 5 of 9 completed hard matches.
• His set-1 games average is 5.33 won and 5.33 lost on hard.
• Coppejans is 2-2 in opening sets across his four hard matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Both players' recent hard-court records point to straight-set finishes far more often than three-set matches.

• Tsitsipas's hard-court set sample averages 2.22 sets per match.
• Two of his nine completed hard matches went to a third set.
• Coppejans's four hard-court matches all finished in straight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas's second-set numbers are his stronger set on this surface and he holds a clear ranking edge.

• Tsitsipas has won 5 of 9 second sets on hard, averaging 6 games won and 5.22 lost.
• Coppejans is 2-2 in second sets on hard, averaging 4 games won and 4.25 lost.
• Three of Tsitsipas's nine hard matches had a tiebreak in the second set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

A straight-set Tsitsipas win is the single most common outcome shape in both players' recent hard-court records, against a lower-ranked opponent.

• Four of Tsitsipas's nine completed hard-court matches in the set sample finished 2-0 in his favour.
• Only two of those nine matches went to a deciding set (total sets average 2.22).
• Coppejans's four hard-court matches all finished in straight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Straight-set wins with breaks on both sides often finish without a tiebreak, as Coppejans's week has shown.

• Three of Coppejans's four hard matches had no tiebreak.
• Coppejans won qualifying sets 6-3, 6-2, 7-6 and 6-3.
• Tsitsipas has played four hard matches without a tiebreak.