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Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #368Switzerland2Andrej Nedic #244Bosnia & Herzegovina0

Sets 6-1 · 7-6Wed 7 Oct 2026, 14:11 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 124 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #368
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Age 21 and currently ranked No. 246, with a published career high of No. 237. Most of his recorded matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #244
Peak ranking: #237
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 02:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Schoen brings a 14-1 run and a straight-sets qualifying pass on this Braga clay into a first-round meeting with the higher-ranked Nedic, whose latest completed match was a 4 September defeat.

Schoen is the likelier winner. At 2.1 he is the one reviewed price carrying value; Nedic at 1.65 asks for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Across the 4 and qualifiers, Schoen conceded only nine games in four sets on Braga clay. This fixture is his third match at the venue, so the route supplies direct current-event court time before he meets Nedic. Barroso Campos and Misolic were both ranked outside the top 450, while Nedic is No. 244, so the wins establish recent conditions and rhythm rather than success against comparable opposition.
- Schoen beat Barroso Campos 6-1, 6-3 in Braga qualifying .
- Schoen beat Misolic 6-1, 6-2 in Braga qualifying .
- The two wins placed Schoen in the Braga main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:47 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore - Patrick Schoenwww.flashscore.com · 5 Oct 2026
Schoen is ranked No. 368 but arrives on the best run of the two players.
Schoen's winning run is the main reason he starts ahead of a higher-ranked opponent, and it includes a 4-1 record in his five-match clay sample. The caveat is the level of opposition: his six most recent listed wins came against players ranked No. 396 or lower, or unranked, and Nedic is No. 244. The run describes a strong few weeks rather than proven form at this ranking level.
- Schoen's last 15 tracked matches: 14 wins, 1 loss (sample: 15 matches).
- He won 28 of 33 sets (84.8%) and 187 of 300 games (62.3%) across that sample.
- His five clay matches in the current-surface sample produced a 4-1 record.
Nedic has the larger recent clay sample of the two and it is full of close sets.
Schoen's five clay matches averaged 18.8 games with no tiebreaks, so the two records pull in opposite directions on how long this match could run. Five of Nedic's 14 clay matches went to a third set and five contained a tiebreak. One retired match is excluded from the 14-match sample, and the stretch ends on 4 September, so this is a tendency from a modest sample rather than current form.
- Nedic's 14 completed clay matches, 1 July to 4 September 2026, averaged 21.8 total games (one retirement excluded).
- Five of those 14 matches went to a third set and five contained a tiebreak.
- Nedic won eight of 14 opening sets, with two first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
The M25 Sintra final ended 6-2, 6-2 over Fausto Tabacco, and it formed part of Schoen's four-title ITF season. The sequence gives this Braga appearance a recent tournament-winning backdrop, but every title came on hard courts rather than Braga clay. Those events were at ITF level, so they show competitive continuity rather than direct evidence against a top-250 Challenger opponent.
- Schoen won four ITF singles titles in 2026: two at M25 Sintra and two at M15 Kayseri.
- All four titles were won on hard courts.
- Schoen beat Fausto Tabacco 6-2, 6-2 in the M25 Sintra final .
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:47 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore - Patrick Schoenwww.flashscore.com · 5 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Schoen arrives in much stronger form and has handled the Braga clay well, while Nedic has been .500 on the surface.
- Schoen is 14-1 in his last 15 matches and 4-1 on clay in the current-surface sample.
- He won both Braga qualifying rounds in straight sets, dropping only three and four games.
- Nedic is 7-7 on clay in his last 14 completed matches.
- Nedic's most recent match was a three-set loss to Johan Nikles.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set game average sits below the 9.5 line.
- Schoen's clay first sets average 8.4 total games.
- Nedic's clay first sets average 9.1 total games.
- Schoen has played no first-set tiebreaks in five clay matches.
- Nedic has played two first-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-set games average below the line.
- Schoen's clay second sets average 8.4 total games.
- Nedic's clay second sets average 9.4 total games.
- Schoen has played no second-set tiebreaks in five clay matches.
- Nedic has played two second-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's dominant qualifying form suggests a shorter match, though Nedic's three-set tendencies create risk.
- Schoen has won his two Braga qualifying matches 6-1 6-2 and 6-1 6-3.
- Schoen's clay matches average 18.8 total games.
- Nedic's clay matches average 21.8 total games.
- Nedic has played five tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance56%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both players' recent clay records.
- Schoen has played two three-set matches in his five clay matches.
- Nedic has played five three-set matches in 14 clay matches.
- Schoen's clay scorelines include three 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss.
- Nedic's clay scorelines include nine straight-set results and five three-set results.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's first-set record is stronger, though Nedic's larger sample shows he often starts well.
- Schoen has won the first set in four of five clay matches.
- Nedic has won the first set in eight of 14 clay matches.
- Schoen's clay first sets average 5.6 games won to 2.8 lost.
- Nedic's clay first sets average 4.9 games won to 4.3 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen has a slight edge in second-set results, but both players are close on this split.
- Schoen has won the second set in three of five clay matches.
- Nedic has won the second set in seven of 14 clay matches.
- Schoen's clay second sets average 4.4 games won to 4.0 lost.
- Nedic's clay second sets average 4.7 games won to 4.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's recent clay matches have been decided without tiebreaks, and he is favored.
- Schoen has played no tiebreaks in five clay matches.
- Nedic has played five tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Schoen's two Braga qualifying wins had no tiebreaks.
- Nedic has two first-set and two second-set tiebreaks on clay.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance78%

Previous match context available

Patrick Schoen

14W 1L

6-1 6-2#471Filip Misolic 6-1 6-3#681Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#470Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#649Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#396Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#594Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#728Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

7-6(3) 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-1 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

6-4 6-2#197Facundo Mena

6-4 2-6 6-4#592Matyas Fuele

6-2 6-3#1576Boris Arias

Andrej Nedic

7W 8L

4-6 6-2 6-1#399Johan Nikles

7-6(6) 6-3#270Kilian Feldbausch

2-6 6-3 7-6(2)#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-3 6-3#348Laurent Lokoli

6-0 6-0—Filippo Francesco Garbero

2-6 6-4 6-3#360Juan Estevez

6-7(5) 6-4 3-0 ret.#361Carlos Taberner

3-6 6-4 6-4#656Ergi Kirkin

7-6(3) 6-2#288Hynek Barton

4-6 6-2 6-0#164Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(2)#253Sumit Nagal

6-3 6-4#319Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-3#180Lukas Neumayer

6-1 7-6(3)#202Keegan Smith

6-3 6-4#265Franco Roncadelli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Andrej NedicNedicAN

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Andrej Nedic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.1%+4.1pp61.2%

1st Serve Won71.9%+9.3pp62.6%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+2.9pp50.9%

Aces / Match4.1+2.51.6

Double Faults / Match1.70.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.1%+8.1pp39.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.8%+0.9pp41.9%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+5.4pp61.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.3%+6.4pp48.9%

Serve · 4–1

57.1%1st Serve In+4.1pp61.2%

71.9%1st Serve Won+9.3pp62.6%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp50.9%

4.1Aces / Match+2.51.6

1.7Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

47.1%Return Pts Won+8.1pp39.0%

Pressure · 2–0

42.8%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp41.9%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+5.4pp61.3%

Points · 1–0

55.3%Total Pts Won+6.4pp48.9%