ChinaATP ShanghaiFinishedFeatured

Pavel Kotov #187Russia2Aleksandar Vukic #115Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Tue 6 Oct 2026, 10:26Q3Hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAleksandar Vukic · 72 places

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Vukic, 30, is a right-hander who lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 48 in August 2023.

Current ranking: #115
Peak ranking: #48 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 02:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Vukic's stronger first-two-set record against Kotov's better recent win-loss column shapes Shanghai's final qualifying round, where a main-draw place is at stake.

Vukic is the likelier winner, most probably in straight sets. Four quoted prices offer something: Vukic to win the match at 2.25, the first set at 2.2, the second set at 2.2, and 2-0 at 3.5. Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 does not.

Context

No injuries, availability items or head-to-head meetings were returned, and research coverage is limited, so the sporting picture rests on small hard-court samples. Both players came through three-set qualifying openers on 5 October, so the immediate workload is shared rather than lopsided.

The 13-match window is short, so the split is a direction rather than a settled pattern.
Vukic has been steadier after the first set than within it, which matters in a match where his opponent also wins most of his second sets. Four of Vukic's 13 hard-court results were 1-2 defeats, the risk attached to expecting a straight-sets finish.
- Vukic's set-2 record is 10 wins and 3 losses over 13 completed hard-court matches (25 July–5 October).
- His set-1 record in the same sample is 9 wins and 4 losses.
- His hard-court scorelines in the sample are seven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, four 1-2 losses and one 0-2 loss.
The results explain why this is a final qualifying-round meeting with a main-draw place at stake. Both players had to complete three-set matches in their Shanghai openers, so the immediate tournament-stage workload is broadly shared. Vukic won two tiebreak sets and Kotov recovered after losing the second set, but the available material does not identify an availability issue from either match.
- Kotov defeated Martin Damm Jr. in three sets .
- Vukic defeated Jie Cui in three sets .
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 02:23 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 5 Oct 2026
Kotov has won 10 of his last 14 tracked matches, and the hard-court set data behind that run shows his defeats stopping short of a third set.
If Kotov is beaten on this surface in the recent window, it has been in straight sets, which is the pattern that sits against a long, three-set match here. The sample is 12 matches with one retirement excluded, so it is a direction rather than a settled habit.
- Kotov's 12 completed hard-court matches (8 September–5 October) show five 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins and three 0-2 losses.
- One retirement is excluded from that set sample.
- His set-1 record in the sample is 6-6 and his set-2 record is 8-4.
Despite the long first sets, Kotov has split them 6-6 in this sample, so the length has not translated into an early lead.
Tight opening sets are the norm in his recent hard-court matches, with tiebreaks appearing in two thirds of them, which shapes how quickly either player can settle. A 12-match window with one retirement excluded is a small base for the rate.
- Kotov's set-1 games average is 10.58 over 12 completed hard-court matches (8 September–5 October).
- Five of those matches included a first-set tiebreak, and eight included a tiebreak in either set.
- His total-games average in the same hard-court sample is 24.83.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Vukic's higher ranking and stronger first-two-set record give him a slight edge, though Kotov's recent match wins are more frequent.
- Vukic is ranked 115, 72 places above Kotov.
- Vukic has won 9 of 13 first sets and 10 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Vukic's hard-court set1 win rate is 69%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerAleksandar VukicMarket price2.25Estimated chance52%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players regularly go beyond nine games, often with tiebreaks.
- Kotov's first sets average 10.58 games.
- Vukic's first sets average 10.54 games.
- Combined average is above 10.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets still trend over the line, driven by Kotov's longer sets.
- Kotov's second sets average 10.83 games.
- Vukic's second sets average 9.77 games.
- Combined average is about 10.3.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits right at the line, with Kotov's matches slightly longer and Vukic's slightly shorter.
- Kotov's hard-court matches average 24.83 total games.
- Vukic's hard-court matches average 24.23 total games.
- Combined average is about 24.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 24.5Estimated chance51%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent hard-court records.
- Kotov has five 2-0 wins in 12 hard matches.
- Vukic has seven 2-0 wins in 13 hard matches.
- Both players finish most matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Vukic has been the more reliable first-set player in recent hard-court matches.
- Vukic wins 9 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Kotov wins 6 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Vukic's first-set win rate is 69%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerAleksandar VukicMarket price2.20Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Vukic has been excellent in second sets, though Kotov also wins most of his.
- Vukic wins 10 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Kotov wins 8 of 12 second sets on hard.
- Vukic's second-set win rate is 77%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerAleksandar VukicMarket price2.20Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in their recent hard-court matches.
- Kotov has 8 tiebreak matches in 12 hard matches.
- Vukic has 7 tiebreak matches in 13 hard matches.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 60%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Aleksandar Vukic: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Aleksandar Vukic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Aleksandar Vukic11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#138Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·62%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#138Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Aleksandar Vukic to win

62%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

29 Jul·ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic1-2#15Lorenzo Musetti

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·55%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic1-2#15Lorenzo Musetti

Aleksandar Vukic to win

55%probability

Lorenzo Musetti won

Missed

28 Jul·ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#76Zachary Svajda

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#105Aleksandar Vukic2-0#76Zachary Svajda

Aleksandar Vukic to win

72%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

26 Jul·ATP Washington

#102Aleksandar Vukic2-0#167Alex Bolt

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·72%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

ATP Washington

#102Aleksandar Vukic2-0#167Alex Bolt

Aleksandar Vukic to win

72%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

19 Jul·Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#192August Holmgren

BetBugsAleksandar Vukic to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#192August Holmgren

Aleksandar Vukic to win

58%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

Matched

Previous match context available

Pavel Kotov

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#104Martin Damm

7-5 6-3#123Shintaro Mochizuki

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-0 6-3#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#185Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(2)#221Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(4)#324Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-1#123Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 7-5#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

3-6 6-1 6-1#184Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#357Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#192Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#383Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#710Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#711Franco Ribero

Aleksandar Vukic

8W 7L

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#420Jie Cui

6-3 4-2 ret.#479Evan Zhu

6-4 6-4#620Ryan Seggerman

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#76Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4 3-6 6-4#137Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(5) 6-1#76Kyrian Jacquet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#149Mark Lajal

6-3 7-6(4)#159Darwin Blanch

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-4#67Daniel Altmaier

7-6(4) 6-2#132Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 5-7 6-3#25Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-1#82Zachary Svajda

6-0 6-1#170Alex Bolt

6-3 6-3#430Aziz Dougaz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPavel KotovKotov

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Aleksandar VukicVukicAV

Aleksandar Vukic carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Kotov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In65.0%+6.9pp58.1%

1st Serve Won73.0%+2.8pp75.8%

2nd Serve Won55.1%+1.5pp53.6%

Aces / Match6.6+2.89.4

Double Faults / Match1.60.3 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+2.0pp37.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.8%+1.4pp36.4%

Break Pts Saved62.2%+1.2pp63.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.9%+0.8pp51.7%

Serve · 3–2

65.0%1st Serve In+6.9pp58.1%

73.0%1st Serve Won+2.8pp75.8%

55.1%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp53.6%

6.6Aces / Match+2.89.4

1.6Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+2.0pp37.1%

Pressure · 1–1

37.8%Break Pts Converted+1.4pp36.4%

62.2%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp63.4%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.7%

Pavel Kotov

Aleksandar Vukic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic 2-0

Under 2.5

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Pavel Kotov

Aleksandar Vukic

Stat Battle