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Predictions graded

Omar Jasika #422Australia2Martin Borisiouk #869Belarus1

Sets 4-6 · 6-3 · 7-5Tue 6 Oct 2026, 02:09 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOmar Jasika · 447 places

Omar Jasika

Australia

Jasika, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded professional match volume has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #422
Peak ranking: #155 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Martin Borisiouk

Belarus

Belarusian right-hander, born 4 July 2000. Available profile data shows his strongest body of results has come on hard courts; no current injury concern was verified in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #869
Peak ranking: #736 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Oct 2026, 23:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Jasika, ranked No. 422, has not played since 30 September, while No.

869 Borisiouk arrives off two qualifying wins. The higher-ranked Australian still looks the likelier winner, and both players' hard-court records point to a short match. At 1.9, Jasika is the one quoted price worth backing; Borisiouk at 1.8 asks more of him than his results against stronger opposition support.

Context

Borisiouk arrives with competitive match play on these courts earned inside the last 48 hours, while Jasika has not competed since 30 September, a six-day gap that is the clearest preparation difference between the two. That gap is the main reason a player ranked outside the top 850 can be treated as the more rhythm-ready of the two, though it was earned against a qualifying field and does not show how he handles main-draw opposition.
- Borisiouk beat Jumpei Yamasaki 6-4 6-2 in the opening qualifying round .
- Borisiouk beat Kristjan Tamm 6-4 6-4 in the second qualifying round .
- It is Borisiouk's third successful qualifying campaign of 2026 to end in main-draw qualification.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Jasika's recent hard-court matches have tended to resolve quickly in one direction or the other.
His sets average 9.5 games in the first and 9.0 in the second, and 12 of the 13 matches ended in straight sets. That points to matches resolving quickly rather than grinding, though the four 0-2 defeats in the same sample show the quick finish has gone against him as often as in his favour.
- Jasika's 13 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches between 26 August and 30 September 2026 produced eight 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses and one 2-1 result.
- His sets averaged 9.5 total games in the first set and 9.0 in the second, with two tiebreaks in the sample.
- One retirement was excluded from the sample.
Borisiouk has been far harder to break in second sets than in first sets this year on hard courts.
The second-set record is the standout in a 14-match hard-court sample, and it points to a player who has often pulled clear after a closer opening set. His first-set record in the same window is 8-6, so the strength is concentrated in the middle of matches rather than from the start; one retirement was excluded from the sample.
- Borisiouk won the second set in 12 of his 14 completed hard-court matches between 12 July and 5 October 2026.
- He averaged 6.0 games won to 2.9 lost in second sets across that sample.
- His first-set record in the same 14 matches was 8-6, with one retirement excluded.
Wuning 3 is the third Challenger played at this Chinese venue in 2026, and the first-round winner is drawn straight into a second-round match with the event's No. 2 seed. Sharipov already holds a main-draw win here and beat Jasika 6-4 6-4 at the Shanghai Challenger in September, so the Australian would face a quick rematch while Borisiouk would step up to a top-250 opponent after coming through qualifying. The ranking gap between the two players is wide, roughly No. 420 against No. 869, but the immediate reward for either is a seeded opponent who is already match-hardened on these courts.
- The Wuning 3 draw lists qualifier Martin Borisiouk against Omar Jasika in the first round.
- The winner of that first-round match faces No. 2 seed Marat Sharipov, who beat Sema Pankin 7-5 6-4 .
- Wuning 3 is a Challenger 50 with a $63,000 prize fund and is the third Wuning Challenger of the 2026 season.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Oct 2026, 23:43 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Jasika is the higher-ranked player and has been competing successfully against stronger opposition, so he holds the clearer claim on the match.
- ATP No. 422 against ATP No. 869
- 8-6 in his last 14 hard-court matches, including a win over No. 221 Rio Noguchi
- Won set 1 in 8 of 13 and set 2 in 9 of 13 hard-court matches
- Borisiouk's two Wuning qualifying wins came against opponents ranked 894 and 880
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets have usually been settled by a clear margin rather than a long grind.
- Jasika's second sets average 9.0 total games
- Borisiouk's second sets average 8.9 total games
- Borisiouk's average second-set margin is more than three games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players finish matches quickly most of the time, and a two-set result is the more likely shape here.
- Jasika's hard-court matches average 19.2 games
- 12 of Jasika's 13 hard-court matches finished in straight sets
- Borisiouk's second sets average only 8.9 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets sit right on this line, making the total close to an even split.
- Jasika's first sets average 9.5 total games
- Borisiouk's first sets average 9.6 total games
- Jasika has played two first-set tiebreaks, Borisiouk none
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' completed matches have usually ended inside two sets, often decisively.
- Jasika's average match length is 2.08 sets
- Borisiouk's average match length is 2.29 sets
- Jasika has lost 0-2 four times in 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jasika's ranking edge gives him a modest lean, but second sets have been strong for both players.
- Jasika has won set 2 in 9 of 13 hard-court matches
- Borisiouk has lost set 2 only twice in 14 matches
- Jasika's second sets average 9.0 games against Borisiouk's 8.9
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonOmar JasikaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets have been close to even for both, with Jasika's ranking advantage providing only a slight lean.
- Jasika has won the opening set in 8 of 13 hard-court matches
- Borisiouk has won the opening set in 8 of 14
- Jasika averages 5.1 games won and 4.5 lost in first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOmar JasikaEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both players have usually been settled by breaks rather than tiebreaks.
- Four of the 27 combined hard-court matches in the sample contained a tiebreak
- Most completed sets in the sample were decided by a break
- Neither player has a high tiebreak rate on recent evidence
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%

Previous match context available

Omar Jasika

8W 7L

6-2 3-6 6-3#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#505Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-1#595Chase Ferguson

6-4 6-3#170Alex Bolt

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 6-4#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 7-5#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-1#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(7) 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#324Akira Santillan

6-2 6-3#661Filip Peliwo

7-6(0) 6-2#891Aoran Wang

6-4 6-3#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-3 6-3#826Kousuke Ogura

6-7(5) 6-3 10-4#692Ryuki Matsuda

Martin Borisiouk

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-2#894Jumpei Yamasaki

6-3 7-6(3)#302Florent Bax

5-7 6-2 7-5#631Dominik Palan

6-4 6-3#748Dong Ju Kim

6-3 4-0 ret.#749Yuta Kawahashi

7-5 7-6(4)#481Koki Matsuda

6-3 6-2—Ethan Cook

6-4 6-2#615Takuya Kumasaka

6-4 3-6 6-3#452Karan Singh

7-5 1-6 7-5—Arnav Vijay Paparkar

6-3 6-1#885Egor Agafonov

6-0 6-2—Arseniy Trebukhin

6-1 6-0—Ahmad Nael Qureshi

2-6 6-4 6-1#679Arvid Nordquist

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OJOmar JasikaJasika

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Martin BorisioukBorisioukMB

Martin Borisiouk carries the stronger recent form — Omar Jasika's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1574.5%+18.0pp56.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1567.8%+13.8pp81.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1553.7%+5.4pp59.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.7+6.17.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.00.9 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.7%+2.5pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1548.1%+7.5pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.8%+9.3pp72.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.5%+4.3pp55.8%

Serve · 2–3

74.5%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+18.0pp56.5%

67.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+13.8pp81.6%

53.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.4pp59.1%

1.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+6.17.8

2.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.9 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

38.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.5pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

48.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.5pp40.6%

62.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+9.3pp72.1%

Points · 0–1

51.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp55.8%