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Predictions graded

Kristjan Tamm #880Estonia0Martin Borisiouk #744Belarus2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 02:09 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Borisiouk · 136 places

Kristjan Tamm

Estonia

Tamm, 28, is a 185 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand. His highest singles ranking was No. 625 in 2020.

Current ranking: #880
Peak ranking: #625 · 2020
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Martin Borisiouk

Belarus

Belarusian right-hander, born 4 July 2000. Available profile data shows his strongest body of results has come on hard courts; no current injury concern was verified in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #744
Peak ranking: #736 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 19:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Two hard-court qualifiers with little between their rankings meet in the final round of Wuning qualifying, where Borisiouk's 12-2 second-set record makes him the narrow favourite.

His 1.29 match price asks far more than that record supports, and 1.36 for the first set and 1.33 for the second are no better. The worthwhile prices are Tamm's: 3.3 to win, 2.9 for the opening set, 3.0 for the second.

Context

Tamm's serve has held up better than anything else in his recent hard-court record.
Tamm's 73.8% first-serve points won is a way to hold serve against a slightly higher-ranked opponent, and saving 58.7% of break points (44 of 75) has covered the gaps in his game. The catch is the sample: 13 matches with serve data between 12 August and 4 October is a short window, and Borisiouk's comparable serve figures are missing, so the two cannot be measured directly against each other.
- Tamm won 73.8% of first-serve points (392 of 531) across 13 hard-court matches with serve data, 12 Aug–4 Oct 2026.
- He took 51.1% of total points (937 of 1834) in the same 13-match sample.
- He averaged 7.2 aces and 2.7 double faults per match and saved 58.7% of break points (44 of 75).
Borisiouk tends to improve as matches go on rather than start quickly.
The split between Borisiouk's first and second sets is the sharpest pattern in either record: six first-set losses against only two second-set losses across 14 hard-court matches. It supports both the straight-sets lean and the second-set prices, though one retired match is excluded from those totals and 14 matches is a small base.
- Borisiouk is 12-2 in second sets across 14 hard-court matches, 11 Jul–4 Oct 2026, averaging 6.0 games won to 2.71 lost.
- He is 8-6 in first sets over the same 14 matches, averaging 5.21 games won to 4.57 lost.
- One retired match is excluded from those set totals.
Neither player has faced the other, so the closest link between them is a shared opponent.
One match each against the same opponent is a thin thread, and Kim's ranking of 743 puts him below both of these players. It remains a concrete, same-month comparison of how the two handled identical opposition, and Borisiouk's straight-sets win is the more convincing of the two results.
- Borisiouk beat Dong Ju Kim (ranked 743) 6-4 6-3 on 14 Sep 2026.
- Tamm lost to Kim 6-3 3-6 6-7 on 7 Sep 2026.
- These are two separate matches against a common opponent; the players themselves have not met.
Tamm's 4 October win is the strongest result in his recent six-match sample.
Beating a player ranked 601 in straight sets the day before is a useful marker for a player ranked 880, and Tamm needed a first-set tiebreak with only three games separating the two across the match. The six matches on record run from 28 August to 4 October, which is too few to treat as a trend.
- Tamm beat Naoya Honda (ranked 601) 7-6 6-4 on 4 Oct 2026, winning 13 games to 10.
- In the six most recent matches on record, 28 Aug–4 Oct 2026, his other wins came against unranked opponents.
- Tamm is ranked 880.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Borisiouk has the higher ranking, a better set-win rate and a recent straight-sets win over a player who beat Tamm.
- Borisiouk 10-4 last 15 on hard; 68.8% sets won
- Borisiouk set2 12-2 on hard
- Borisiouk beat Dong Ju Kim 6-4 6-3; Tamm lost to same opponent
- Borisiouk ranking 861 vs Tamm 880
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin BorisioukEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish second sets relatively quickly on average, favoring under 9.5.
- Tamm set2 total games avg 9.13
- Borisiouk set2 total games avg 8.71
- Borisiouk set2 games lost avg 2.71
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first set just exceeds 9.5 games for both players.
- Tamm set1 total games avg 10.07
- Borisiouk set1 total games avg 9.79
- Combined set1 avg ~9.93
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average just above the 21.5-game line on hard, so the match total should be close to the threshold.
- Tamm total games average 22.1
- Borisiouk total games average 21.4
- Tamm 3-set rate 26.7%; Borisiouk 28.6%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players win most matches in straight sets, making under 2.5 the stronger side.
- Tamm 3-set rate 4/15 (26.7%)
- Borisiouk 3-set rate 4/14 (28.6%)
- Tamm straight-set wins 10/15; Borisiouk 10/14
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Borisiouk has a clear edge in second-set results and game margin on hard courts.
- Borisiouk set2 record 12-2 on hard
- Tamm set2 record 11-4 on hard
- Borisiouk set2 games won avg 6.0 vs lost 2.71
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMartin BorisioukEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.90
The read
Tamm has a slightly better first-set record and game margin than Borisiouk.
- Tamm set1 record 9-6 on hard
- Borisiouk set1 record 8-6 on hard
- Tamm set1 games won avg 5.4 vs lost 4.67
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKristjan TammEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court matches finish without a tiebreak.
- Tamm matches with tiebreak 7/15
- Borisiouk matches with tiebreak 3/14
- Combined tiebreak rate 10/29
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%

Kristjan Tamm

10W 5L

7-6(3) 6-4#601Naoya Honda

3-6 6-3 7-6(7)#743Dong Ju Kim

7-6(3) 6-1#810Yuta Tomida

6-2 6-2—Zaharije-Zak Talic

4-6 7-6(2) 7-5—Reiya Komagata

6-4 6-2#278Matthew Dellavedova

7-5 6-4#405Arthur Weber

6-3 6-1#1909Ren Nakamura

6-2 7-6(5)—Noritaka Koizumi

6-3 6-1#835Kazuma Kawachi

6-3 2-6 6-4#428Omar Jasika

6-3 6-2#1852Yu Hsiang Chiu

7-6(4) 6-3—Hugo Hashimoto

6-3 6-1#807Oscar Weightman

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#821Arda Azkara

Martin Borisiouk

11W 4L

6-4 6-2#894Jumpei Yamasaki

6-3 7-6(3)#298Florent Bax

5-7 6-2 7-5#622Dominik Palan

6-4 6-3#743Dong Ju Kim

6-3 4-0 ret.#744Yuta Kawahashi

7-5 7-6(4)#475Koki Matsuda

6-3 6-2—Ethan Cook

6-4 6-2#608Takuya Kumasaka

6-4 3-6 6-3#486Karan Singh

7-5 1-6 7-5—Arnav Vijay Paparkar

6-3 6-1#885Egor Agafonov

6-0 6-2—Arseniy Trebukhin

6-1 6-0—Ahmad Nael Qureshi

2-6 6-4 6-1#806Arvid Nordquist

7-6(6) 6-2#846Hoyoung Roh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KTKristjan TammTamm

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Martin BorisioukBorisioukMB

Martin Borisiouk carries the stronger recent form — Kristjan Tamm's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 14/1558.4%+1.5pp56.9%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 14/1573.8%+8.0pp81.8%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 14/1549.7%+8.8pp58.5%

Aces / Match13/15 · 14/157.2+1.08.2

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 14/152.70.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 14/1538.6%+2.8pp41.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 14/1548.1%+10.0pp38.1%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 14/1558.7%+13.4pp72.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 14/1551.1%+4.6pp55.7%

Serve · 2–3

58.4%1st Serve In13/15 · 14/15+1.5pp56.9%

73.8%1st Serve Won13/15 · 14/15+8.0pp81.8%

49.7%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 14/15+8.8pp58.5%

7.2Aces / Match13/15 · 14/15+1.08.2

2.7Double Faults / Match13/15 · 14/150.3 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

38.6%Return Pts Won13/15 · 14/15+2.8pp41.4%

Pressure · 1–1

48.1%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 14/15+10.0pp38.1%

58.7%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 14/15+13.4pp72.1%

Points · 0–1

51.1%Total Pts Won13/15 · 14/15+4.6pp55.7%