ChinaWuning - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5442Sidharth Rawat #536India1

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 6-1Tue 6 Oct 2026, 06:22 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSidharth Rawat · 8 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Sidharth Rawat

India

ITF lists Rawat’s preferred surface as hard court. His career-best ATP singles ranking was No. 430 in January 2019.

Current ranking: #536
Peak ranking: #430 · 2019
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Leong arrives with the better hard-court record and a 1-0 head-to-head edge, while Rawat has lost 11 of 15.

Leong winning, probably in straight sets, is the likeliest shape of this first-round match, but 1.22 for him to win and 1.65 for a 2-0 win both demand more than his form supports, so neither quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Leong has taken the second set much more often than the first in this window, and Rawat lost 10 of his 15 second sets between 1 May and 28 September, so the later set has not usually been the one that decides these matches. The caveat is the sample itself: 12 completed matches, with three retirements excluded, and set outcomes follow scorelines rather than cause them. It still makes the second set the place where Leong's edge has shown up most regularly.
- Leong won 10 of 12 second sets across hard-court matches between 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-29, averaging 5.5 games won to 3.83 lost.
- In the same 12 matches he won 7 of 12 first sets, averaging 4.75 games won to 4.17 lost.
- Those 12 completed matches exclude 3 retirements and include four matches with at least one tiebreak.
Converting under a third of break points limits how often Rawat can turn a competitive return game into a lead, and his 46.8% share of total points over 15 matches points the same way. His 52.6% break-point save rate and 66.1% of points won on first serve show that holding has been less of a problem than breaking. The window covers 15 matches, 1,927 points and 95 break-point chances, which is enough to describe that run but not to promise the same pattern in a first-round match at a new event.
- Rawat converted 31 of 95 break points (32.6%) across 15 hard-court matches between 2026-05-01 and 2026-09-28.
- He won 901 of 1,927 total points (46.8%) and saved 60 of 114 break points (52.6%) in that window.
- He won 66.1% of points on his first serve (336 of 508) and averaged 96.8 minutes per match.
The only recorded meeting between the two was at the ITF M25 Bali 3 Men's event in 2022, and Leong won it, giving him the sole head-to-head reference point in this fixture. That result is a small historical edge for Leong rather than a current form signal. It carries limited weight because it was played on the lower ITF circuit about four years ago, well below the level and ranking both players now occupy. This match therefore rests mostly on present rankings and recent hard-court results rather than on that earlier encounter.
- Leong holds a 1-0 head-to-head record over Rawat.
- The only previous meeting took place at the ITF M25 Bali 3 Men's event in 2022.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:32 · Europe/BucharestLeong vs Rawat match pagescorego-app.com · 4 Oct 2026
Rawat's results in this window have been short and one-sided in both directions, which is why the sample contains no three-set win at all. Four of the 15 matches still reached a tiebreak, so not every set has been lopsided, and the record describes a five-month run rather than a fixed pattern. For this first round it means a Rawat win would most plausibly arrive in two sets if it arrives at all.
- Rawat's 15 hard-court matches between 2026-05-01 and 2026-09-28 produced scorelines of nine 0-2 defeats, four 2-0 wins and two 1-2 defeats.
- Across the same 15 matches he averaged 2.13 sets and 20.2 total games per match.
- Four of the 15 matches included at least one tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1.22fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

−6.0ppshort

Leong has the better hard-court record, the higher ranking and beat Rawat in their only prior meeting, while Rawat's wins have come only against much lower-ranked opponents.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 2-0

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

−5.6ppshort

Leong's most common recent result is a straight-sets win, and Rawat's most common result is a straight-sets defeat.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Leong has the better hard-court record, the higher ranking and beat Rawat in their only prior meeting, while Rawat's wins have come only against much lower-ranked opponents.
- Leong is 8-4 in his last 12 completed hard-court matches; Rawat is 4-11.
- Rankings: Leong 419, Rawat 658.
- Rawat has won only 10 of 32 hard-court sets (31%) and 129 of 303 games (42.6%).
- Leong won the pair's only previous meeting (ITF M25 Bali 2022).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance76%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent first sets for both players have finished at nine games or fewer, which is just under the line.
- Leong's first sets average 8.92 total games.
- Rawat's first sets average 9.53 total games.
- Rawat has lost 9 of 15 recent matches in straight sets, often by wide margins.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-set game averages for both players land just under the line, giving a narrow lean to the shorter outcome.
- Both players' second sets average 9.33 total games.
- Leong's second-set games average is 5.5-3.83.
- Rawat's second-set games average is 4.0-5.33.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches finish in straight sets most of the time, and Rawat's losses in particular are usually completed in two.
- Leong's 12 hard-court scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, two 1-2 losses, two 0-2 losses.
- Rawat's 15 hard-court scorelines: nine 0-2 losses, two 1-2 losses, four 2-0 wins.
- Rawat averages 2.13 sets per match, Leong 2.25.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's second-set record is his strongest recent statistic, and Rawat loses the second set in two-thirds of his matches.
- Leong has won the second set in 10 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Rawat has won the second set in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Leong's second-set games average is 5.5-3.83.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leong wins opening sets more often than he loses them, and Rawat has lost the first set in two-thirds of his recent matches.
- Leong has won the first set in 7 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Rawat has won the first set in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Leong's average first-set games score is 4.75-4.17.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Leong's most common recent result is a straight-sets win, and Rawat's most common result is a straight-sets defeat.
- Leong has won 2-0 in 7 of his 12 hard-court matches.
- Rawat has lost 0-2 in 9 of his 15 hard-court matches.
- Rawat has won only 42.6% of his games in that window.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMitsuki Wei Kang Leong 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent matches have finished without a tiebreak, and Rawat's games are often lost by wide margins.
- Leong has avoided a tiebreak in 8 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Rawat has avoided a tiebreak in 11 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Rawat has won only 42.6% of his games, limiting close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Dominik Palan won

Missed

19 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

62%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·60%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

60%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·55%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

55%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

11W 4L

6-2 6-3#238Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-4 6-4#692Thomas Fancutt

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#281Petr Bar Biryukov

6-2 6-3#462James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-1#289Sergey Fomin

2-6 6-1 4-0 ret.#822Hanyi Liu

6-0 6-1—Ye Hongyu

6-2 6-1#428Omar Jasika

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.—Thijmen Loof

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3—Takeru Yuzuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#152Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#462James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-2#475Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#281Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#622Dominik Palan

Sidharth Rawat

4W 11L

6-3 6-3#493Alexandr Binda

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#389Kasidit Samrej

6-2 6-4#312Mert Alkaya

7-5 7-6(4)#534Shunsuke Mitsui

6-3 6-3#682Aleksandre Bakshi

6-4 6-2#493Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-2#645Yaroslav Demin

6-3 6-1#244Max Basing

6-3 6-2#343Edward Winter

6-3 6-3#717Orel Kimhi

6-3 6-1#369Ognjen Milic

7-6(4) 6-2#428Omar Jasika

6-4 7-6(3)#487Maximus Jones

3-6 6-4 7-5#699Manish Sureshkumar

6-3 6-2#389Kasidit Samrej

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Sidharth RawatRawatSR

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — Sidharth Rawat's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.9%+10.3pp54.6%

1st Serve Won72.0%+5.9pp66.1%

2nd Serve Won54.9%+8.1pp46.8%

Aces / Match5.3+2.23.1

Double Faults / Match2.20.5 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.7%+3.9pp36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.9%+12.3pp32.6%

Break Pts Saved57.6%+5.0pp52.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+6.3pp46.8%

Serve · 4–1

64.9%1st Serve In+10.3pp54.6%

72.0%1st Serve Won+5.9pp66.1%

54.9%2nd Serve Won+8.1pp46.8%

5.3Aces / Match+2.23.1

2.2Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

40.7%Return Pts Won+3.9pp36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

44.9%Break Pts Converted+12.3pp32.6%

57.6%Break Pts Saved+5.0pp52.6%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+6.3pp46.8%