PortugalBraga - PortugalFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #492Switzerland2Filip Misolic #530Austria0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Mon 5 Oct 2026, 09:18 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Schoen · 38 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #492
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #530
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 19:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Two first-time opponents in Braga's third qualifying round: Schoen brings 13 wins from 15 completed matches, Misolic 4 from 13.

Schoen is the likelier winner, and his 2.6 price is the one reviewed quote that offers value; Misolic at 1.44 needs about 69% and is best left alone.

Context

Schoen, ranked 362, brings the stronger recent record into a first meeting with a player ranked 468.
The 15-match window runs to 4 October 2026 and covers several surfaces, so it is a form pointer rather than a measure of how he will play on clay in Braga. Within it he has won 26 of 33 sets, a sign of how rarely he has been dragged deep in this run.
- 13 wins and 2 losses from 15 completed matches tracked, latest entry 4 October 2026
- 26 sets won from 33 played across the same 15-match window (78.8%)
Misolic, ranked 468, has the weaker overall record but a clay file that reads more competitive than his recent win count.
Six clay matches is a small base and two retirements were removed from it, so this describes how his games have gone rather than proving a level. He won set two in five of six matches, averaging 6.0 games to 3.0, which suggests the second set is where he has been hardest to break; his clay wins were clean while every defeat went the distance.
- Six clay matches tracked from 8 September to 3 October 2026
- Scorelines: three 2-0 wins, three 1-2 defeats
- Set two won in 5 of 6, averaging 6.0 games won and 3.0 lost
- Two retirements excluded from this clay sample
There is no previous meeting to draw on, so neither player has a direct read on the other's serve patterns, rally shape or return positioning. Both men sit outside the top 350 and have come through the qualifying draw, so the ranking gap between them is narrow and the stored record of recent results is the main guide to the fixture. The absence of shared on-court history adds uncertainty to how the match will be patterned rather than pointing to a favourite.
- Career head-to-head between the two players is 0-0
- Fixture scheduled for 5 October 2026 in the third qualifying round at the Braga Challenger
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:44 · Europe/BucharestMatchstat head-to-head profilematchstat.com · 4 Oct 2026
The match is the opening fixture on Court 2, which places it at the start of the day's programme on an outside court rather than later in the session. Both players are assigned the same early slot, so the schedule itself does not separate them. The detail is useful mainly for setting the conditions under which the qualifying round will be played.
- Listed on Court 2 at 09:00
- Followed on the same court by two further matches
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:44 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple match listingen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Schoen has the better ranking and by far the stronger recent win rate, including a 6-1 6-3 clay win in his most recent match, while Misolic has lost more than he has won lately.
- Schoen: 13-2 in his last 15 completed matches; 3-2 in 5 current-surface (clay) matches
- Misolic: 4-9 in his last 15; 3-3 in 6 clay matches in the same window
- Ranking: Schoen 362, Misolic 468
- Schoen clay serve/return: 72.8% first-serve points won, 50.4% total points won
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Misolic's matches regularly run past 21 games and Schoen's average sits right at the line, so a slightly longer match is the marginally better-supported side.
- Misolic clay matches average 22.8 total games (6 matches)
- Schoen clay matches average 20.6 total games (5 matches)
- Misolic went to a third set in 3 of 6 clay matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally closed inside ten games in the available clay evidence.
- Schoen clay set-two average 9.2 games
- Misolic clay set-two average 9.0 games
- Only one set-two tiebreak across the combined 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both have tended to finish just short of ten games, making the under the marginally better-supported side.
- Schoen clay set-one average 9.4 games (5 matches)
- Misolic clay set-one average 9.3 games (6 matches)
- No set-one tiebreaks recorded for either player
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most matches in this small combined sample ended in two sets, and both players' wins have generally been straight-set.
- Schoen clay: 2.2 sets per match average
- Misolic clay: 2.5 sets per match average
- Misolic's three clay wins were all in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen is the marginal favourite for the match and starts well on clay, though the set-one records of the two are close.
- Schoen won set one in 3 of 5 clay matches
- Misolic won set one in 4 of 6 clay matches
- Schoen clay set-one games: 5.4 won, 4.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay sets have generally been decided by breaks rather than reaching 6-6.
- 10 of 11 combined clay matches had no tiebreak
- Schoen has played no tiebreaks in his last 5 clay matches
- Misolic has played one tiebreak in 6 clay matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%

Previous match context available

Patrick Schoen

13W 2L

6-1 6-3#705Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#478Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#643Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#387Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#652Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#724Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

7-6(3) 6-2#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-1 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

6-4 6-2#190Facundo Mena

6-4 2-6 6-4#583Matyas Fuele

6-2 6-3#1576Boris Arias

7-5 7-5#293Mili Poljicak

Filip Misolic

4W 11L

6-2 6-0—Tiago Esculcas

6-4 3-1 ret.#615Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 4-6 6-3#580Sebastian Gima

7-5 6-1#675Imanol Lopez Morillo

4-6 7-5 6-4#719Matyas Cerny

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#256Mika Brunold

6-4 6-0#242Henri Squire

6-4 6-3 7-5#22Francisco Cerundolo

6-1 1-1 ret.#73Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#210Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 6-3 6-3#28Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-3#109Alexander Shevchenko

7-5 6-4—Daniel Jovanovski

6-3 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

6-1 6-3#7Flavio Cobolli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Filip MisolicMisolicFM

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Filip Misolic's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.6%+1.4pp56.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1572.1%+5.8pp66.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.9%+8.7pp44.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.3+1.72.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.71.8 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1545.1%+5.3pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.0%+2.0pp44.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1567.4%+10.4pp57.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1554.3%+5.8pp48.5%

Serve · 5–0

57.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp56.2%

72.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp66.3%

52.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.7pp44.2%

4.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.72.6

1.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.8 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

45.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.3pp39.8%

Pressure · 1–1

42.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp44.0%

67.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+10.4pp57.0%

Points · 1–0

54.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp48.5%