PortugalBraga - PortugalFinished

Settling…

Olle Wallin #407Sweden2Tiago Cacao #676Portugal0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 09:10 Settling…Q3Clay

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOlle Wallin · 269 places

Olle Wallin

Sweden

The Swedish right-hander reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in July 2026. No reliable public source identified a declared preferred surface.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #368 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Tiago Cacao

Portugal

Portuguese right-hander whose career-high singles ranking was No. 394 on 17 December 2018. No reliable source in this search established a preferred surface or a current fitness restriction.

Current ranking: #676
Peak ranking: #394 · 2018
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 19:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Braga Challenger qualifying on clay pairs No.

415 Wallin with No. 643 Cacao, and the ranking gap overstates the difference: Cacao has won all four of his recent clay opening sets and converted 19 of 29 break points on the surface. Wallin's longer clay record makes him the likelier winner, but 1.6 implies 62.5% for a match that reads nearer 53%. No other reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Qualifying round at a Challenger with thin clay evidence on one side, no head-to-head and no availability news; the sporting question is whether Wallin's 12-match clay record outweighs Cacao's sharper four-match clay numbers.

Cacao's recent clay first sets have been settled by breaks rather than shootouts, with only one of the four reaching a tiebreak.
Taking the opening set in all four clay matches, including a 6-4 first set against Milos Karol on 2026-10-04, gives Cacao a reliable base in a best-of-three. Wallin's clay first sets have gone the other way, five wins against seven losses, so the opening set is where Cacao's case is strongest. Four matches is still a small base for a rate, and Cacao's wider 15-match record is only 8-7.
- Cacao clay set1: 4 wins, 0 losses across 4 matches (2026-08-30 to 2026-10-04)
- Clay set1 games average: 6.25 won, 3.75 lost
- One tiebreak across those four clay first sets
Cacao's clay serving and returning numbers are the sharper part of a 15-match window in which he stands 8-7.
If Cacao keeps taking roughly two of every three break points he creates, Wallin's serve will be tested whenever rallies extend. The caveat is the sample: four clay matches cannot establish a rate, and Cacao's wider 15-match record is only 8-7 with a 51.8% break-point conversion rate. It points to a competitive qualifying match rather than control for either player.
- Record over four tracked clay matches: 3-1
- Clay break points converted: 19 of 29 (65.5%)
- Clay total points won: 285 of 533 (53.5%)
- All 15 tracked matches: 8-7, break points converted 59 of 114 (51.8%)
Wallin and Cação are meeting in the qualifying second round at the Braga Challenger, an elimination step toward the main draw rather than a ranking-protected main-draw match. Wallin carries the higher position, No. 415 to No. 643, though both men are working through the same unseeded qualifying bracket, so the ranking gap is not decisive at this level. The tie is listed as the first Centre Court match at 09:00, opening the day session with the same conditions for both players.
- The Braga 2026 ATP Challenger 75 qualifying second-round match between Olle Wallin and Tiago Cação is listed on Centre Court at 09:00.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 19:38 · Europe/BucharestTennisTempleen.tennistemple.com · 4 Oct 2026
Only two of Wallin's 12 clay matches in the window included a tiebreak, so the extra games have come from breaks rather than shootouts.
Long sets mean more opportunities for the returner, and Wallin wins 40.4% of return points on clay across those 12 matches. Cacao converts break points at a notably higher rate on the surface, so a drawn-out match need not favour the higher-ranked player. The figures cover one clay season and mix wins with losses rather than describing current form.
- 12 clay matches tracked, 2026-07-31 to 2026-10-04
- Average total games per match: 24.4
- Scorelines: four 2-1 wins, three 0-2 losses, three 2-0 wins, two 1-2 losses
- Two of 12 matches featured a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Olle Wallin

1.60fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 62.5%

−9.5ppshort

Wallin has the longer clay sample and better ranking, though the two are closely matched.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Wallin has the longer clay sample and better ranking, though the two are closely matched.
- Clay 2026: 7-5 in 12 matches, 51.2% of games won
- Ranked 415 vs Cacao's 643
- Beat Rodenas 2-1 on 2026-10-04 on clay
BetBugs · Match WinnerOlle WallinMarket price1.60Estimated chance53%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cacao's second sets have ended quickly and neither player reaches many second-set tiebreaks.
- Cacao's clay second sets average 7.75 total games
- Wallin's clay second sets average 9.25 total games
- Zero tiebreaks across both players' recent clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay first sets have averaged close to or above ten games.
- Wallin clay set1 average: 4.58 games won, 5.17 lost (9.75 total)
- Cacao clay set1 average: 6.25 won, 3.75 lost (10.0 total)
- One tiebreak in 12 Wallin first sets, one in 4 Cacao first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's clay matches have regularly gone past 22 games and both players break often enough to extend sets.
- Wallin clay total games average 24.4 across 12 matches
- Cacao clay total games average 20.25 across 4 matches
- Both players win around 40% or more of return points on clay
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the most common single outcome across both players' recent clay results.
- Cacao won 3 of 4 clay matches in straight sets
- Wallin's 12 clay matches split 6 straight-set, 6 three-set
- Wallin clay scorelines include three 2-0 wins
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cacao has started every recent clay match strongly while Wallin has lost the opening set more often than he has won it.
- Cacao's clay set1 record: 4 wins, 0 losses
- Cacao averages 6.25 games to 3.75 in clay opening sets
- Wallin's clay set1 record: 5 wins, 7 losses
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerTiago CacaoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wallin's second-set record on clay is his stronger half and slightly better than Cacao's.
- Wallin won the second set in 7 of 12 clay matches
- Cacao won the second set in 3 of 4 clay matches
- Wallin averages 5.08 games to 4.17 in clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerOlle WallinEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sets in these players' recent clay matches have mostly been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks.
- Wallin: 2 matches with a tiebreak in 12 clay matches
- Cacao: 1 match with a tiebreak in 4 clay matches
- Wallin's clay second sets have produced no tiebreaks in 12 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's clay double-fault rate is high enough on its own to drive the total over the line.
- Combined clay double-fault averages: 2.2 + 2.8 = 5.0
- Wallin clay first-serve-in rate 58.5% over 12 matches
- Cacao clay first-serve-in rate 56.0% over 4 matches
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player serves at a high ace rate on clay, so the combined total sits just under the line.
- Combined clay ace averages: 4.9 (Wallin) + 2.5 (Cacao) = 7.4
- Cacao's overall ace rate is 2.3 per match
- Wallin has 59 aces in 12 clay matches
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Olle Wallin

8W 7L

1-6 6-2 7-5#630Pedro Rodenas

6-3 7-5#460Matthew William Donald

6-1 6-4#221Chun Hsin Tseng

3-6 6-2 7-5#295Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 7-5#189Zdenek Kolar

7-6(4) 6-4#349Norbert Gombos

7-5 6-2—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 3-6 6-4#391Johan Nikles

3-6 6-1 7-6(9)#874Andrea Colombo

4-6 6-0 6-3#893Niccolo Catini

5-7 6-2 6-3#376Carlos Taberner

6-2 7-5#755Niklas Guttau

6-2 1-6 7-5—Christopher Papa

6-1 6-4#164Andrea Guerrieri

6-4 7-5#89Jan Choinski

Tiago Cacao

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#576Milos Karol

4-6 6-4 6-4#313Anton Matusevich

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#387Robin Bertrand

7-5 7-5#362Patrick Schoen

6-7(6) 6-4 6-0#654Alec Deckers

6-4 6-4#359Tiago Torres

6-1 7-5#900Benjamin Thomas George

4-6 7-5 6-3#478Fausto Tabacco

6-1 6-1#807Oscar Weightman

6-4 6-3—Adrien Burdet

3-6 6-1 6-4#230Alejandro Moro Canas

7-6(8) 6-1#443Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-1—Rodrigo Duarte

7-5 6-1#523Fabrizio Andaloro

7-6(7) 7-5#652Goncalo Marques

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OWOlle WallinWallin

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Tiago CacaoCacaoTC

Tiago Cacao carries the stronger recent form — Olle Wallin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1558.6%+2.9pp55.7%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1568.9%—69.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1546.1%—46.8%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/154.8+2.52.3

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.40.7 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1539.9%+3.1pp43.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1537.5%+14.3pp51.8%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1558.0%+10.1pp68.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.8%+1.6pp51.4%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

58.6%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+2.9pp55.7%

68.9%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15—69.1%

46.1%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15—46.8%

4.8Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+2.52.3

2.4Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/150.7 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.1pp43.0%

Pressure · 0–2

37.5%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+14.3pp51.8%

58.0%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+10.1pp68.1%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.6pp51.4%