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Predictions graded

Joao Eduardo Schiessl #492Brazil2Alan Magadan #523Mexico0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Mon 5 Oct 2026, 13:11 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoao Eduardo Schiessl · 31 places

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

Brazil

Brazilian left-hander ranked No. 512 who entered the Curitiba main draw on a wildcard. He was a semifinalist at this event in 2025 and spent the weeks before it at ITF M15 level in Brazil.

Current ranking: #492
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Alan Magadan

Mexico

Mexican right-hander; ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. Public profile sources list a singles career-high of No. 554 in August 2026; no verified current injury or comeback context was found.

Current ranking: #523
Peak ranking: #554 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Oct 2026, 23:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Two near-identical 15-match records meet here: Schiessl and Magadan are both 9-6, half a percentage point apart on total points won, and both played three sets on 4 October.

Magadan's serve, at 4.9 aces and 68.3% of first-serve points won, is the one real separating number, and it is enough for a slight lean his way rather than a confident call. No reviewed selection carried a price, so nothing here is worth backing.

Context

Magadan, ranked 523, is a right-hander whose serve is the most distinctive number in an otherwise even statistical profile.
When his first serve lands, he wins those points at a 68.3% rate and his 4.9 aces a match add free points, which is the main reason this match has a slight favourite at all. The risk sits in the volume: at 60.3% of first serves in, plenty of points fall to a second serve that still wins 52.6%, and 2.4 double faults a match give returns away.
- 15 matches tracked through 2026-10-04: 4.9 aces per match (74 aces).
- Same window: 68.3% of first-serve points won (490 of 717) with 60.3% of first serves in (717 of 1190).
- Also in that window: 2.4 double faults per match (36) and 52.6% of second-serve points won (249 of 473).
Schiessl, a left-hander ranked 492, has a mixed recent log rather than a one-way run.
A three-of-fifteen games return against a player ranked 660 is the clearest warning in his recent record and shows how quickly his level can drop inside a match. It sits inside a mixed six-match log running from 23 September to 4 October, so it reads as a risk marker rather than an established pattern.
- 2026-09-25, clay: lost 2-6, 1-6 to Nicolas Zanellato, ranked 660.
- Games in that completed two-set match: 3 won, 12 lost.
Schiessl's most recent completed match came on 4 October 2026, the day before this fixture.
A three-set win over a player ranked 807 is a slow route into this match, though it ended as a win rather than a loss. Magadan also went three sets on 4 October, so on the available record neither player holds a recovery edge, and the quick turnaround is a note to carry rather than a proven effect.
- 2026-10-04, clay: beat Benjamin Torrealba, ranked 807, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
- Games in that completed three-set match: 17 won, 14 lost.
Magadan's last logged hard-court match came in August against the highest-ranked opponent in his recent record.
Taking a set 6-1 off a top-101 player and reaching a final-set tiebreak shows he can hold his level against better-ranked opposition than he usually meets. The result was still a loss, and his logged record then jumps from 20 August to 4 October, which may not capture every match he played, so that stretch of his form stays unknown.
- 2026-08-20, hard: lost 4-6, 6-1, 6-7 to Chak Lam Coleman Wong, ranked 101.
- Games in that completed three-set match: 16 won, 14 lost, including a 6-1 second set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Magadan's stronger serve numbers, especially first-serve points won and aces, give him a slight edge in a close matchup.
- Ranked 523 vs 492
- 9-6 in last 15 matches
- 4.9 aces per match, 68.3% first serve points won
- 51.5% total points won vs 51.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlan MagadanEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is 4.3, below the 4.5 line, favoring under.
- Schiessl 1.9 DF/match, Magadan 2.4 DF/match
- Combined average 4.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is below 7.5, making under the more likely outcome.
- Schiessl 2.5 aces/match, Magadan 4.9 aces/match
- Combined average 7.4 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

9W 6L

6-3 4-6 7-5#807Benjamin Torrealba

7-6(4) 7-5#603Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 7-5#634Samuel Heredia

6-2 6-1#660Nicolas Zanellato

7-6(7) 6-4—Giovanni Branchetti

6-2 6-3—Eduardo Lage

7-6(11) 6-2#806Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-2 6-2#806Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-3 6-1—Luiz Felipe Silva

6-2 1-6 6-3—Andre Souza Pinto De Camargo

6-1 6-3—Franco Marini

6-4 5-7 6-4#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 4-6 6-1—Pedro Albuquerque Dietrich

6-2 6-3#712Nicolas Villalon

6-4 7-5#807Benjamin Torrealba

Alan Magadan

9W 6L

3-6 6-3 7-6(5)#1557Nicolas Bruna

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#101Chak Lam Coleman Wong

4-6 6-0 6-4#484Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 7-6(6)#221Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(5)#193David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 7-5—Max Sheldon

6-3 7-6(6)#484Juan Alejandro Hernandez

2-6 6-1 6-1#441Garrett Johns

7-5 6-3#94Michael Zheng

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#290Stefan Kozlov

7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(4)#341Aidan Mayo

6-1 6-0—Owen Demuth

7-5 1-6 6-3#900Benjamin Thomas George

7-6(5) 6-3#252Matias Soto

7-5 7-5#844Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoao Eduardo SchiesslSchiessl

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Alan MagadanMagadanAM

Joao Eduardo Schiessl carries the stronger recent form — Alan Magadan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In69.1%+8.8pp60.3%

1st Serve Won63.7%+4.6pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won49.7%+2.9pp52.6%

Aces / Match2.5+2.44.9

Double Faults / Match1.90.5 fewer2.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.8%—41.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.8%+7.7pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved62.4%+2.2pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.0%—51.5%

Serve · 2–3

69.1%1st Serve In+8.8pp60.3%

63.7%1st Serve Won+4.6pp68.3%

49.7%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp52.6%

2.5Aces / Match+2.44.9

1.9Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.8%Return Pts Won—41.2%

Pressure · 2–0

44.8%Break Pts Converted+7.7pp37.1%

62.4%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp60.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won—51.5%