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Predictions graded

Nicolas Bruna #15571Alan Magadan #561Mexico2

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 6-7Sun 4 Oct 2026, 16:21 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlan Magadan · 996 places

Nicolas Bruna

Bruna, 27, is a Chilean right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 982, reached in December 2025.

Current ranking: #1557
Peak ranking: #982 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Alan Magadan

Mexico

Mexican right-hander; ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. Public profile sources list a singles career-high of No. 554 in August 2026; no verified current injury or comeback context was found.

Current ranking: #561
Peak ranking: #554 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 15:43 · Europe/Bucharest

A 1,000-place ranking gap says Alan Magadan should beat Nicolas Bruna, but Bruna has taken a set in seven of his 13 clay matches this season and won the second set five times.

Magadan is still the likely winner; his 1.08 match price and 1.18 first-set price ask more than that warrants. Bruna at 6.5 is the one reviewed price with something in it.

Context

Bruna has lost the opening set in 11 of his 13 clay matches, which leaves him chasing almost every week. He has still won the second set five times and pushed five defeats to a deciding set, so Magadan may need three sets to close this out. The sample covers one player's season on clay and says nothing about how either man serves, but it argues against a quick, clean win.
- 2-11 in 13 completed clay matches, 17 June to 21 September 2026
- Seven of the 13 went to a deciding set: five 1-2 losses, two 2-1 wins, six 0-2 losses
- Set 1 record 2-11, averaging 4.92 games won and 6.00 lost
- One retired match is excluded from the clay sample
Those three matches are the only clay evidence behind Magadan's favourite's tag, and they were close: both the first and second sets averaged more than ten games, with a tiebreak in two of the three. He won one and lost two, splitting his sets 3-4. His 8-7 record over the last 15 tracked matches is built mostly elsewhere, so his clay form is thin rather than poor.
- 3 clay matches tracked, 3-8 July 2026, record 1-2
- Total games average 25.33 per match
- Set 1 games average 10.67; set 2 games average 11.33
- Two of the three matches included a tiebreak
Magadan's most recent match came against Chak Lam Coleman Wong, ranked 100 and more than 400 places above him, and he took the second set 6-1 before losing the decider in a tiebreak. That suggests he can hold his level against stronger fields than he meets in this qualifying round, though the match was played on a hard court rather than clay. His only clay evidence remains the three matches from early July 2026.
- 20 August 2026: lost 4-6, 6-1, 6-7 to Chak Lam Coleman Wong, ranked 100
- Magadan won 16 games to 14 across the three sets
- Scoreline splits as a 6-1 set won and a decider lost in a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alan Magadan

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Bruna has lost the first set in nearly all his recent clay matches, making an early lead unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Magadan is ranked over 1,000 places higher and has a winning overall record, while Bruna has won only two of his last thirteen clay matches.
- Magadan ranked 514, Bruna 1557
- Magadan 8-7 in last 15 overall
- Bruna 2-12 in last 15 overall
- Bruna 2-11 on clay in last 13
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlan MagadanEstimated chance75%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets on clay tend to last more than nine games, often due to close early exchanges.
- Bruna set1 total games average 10.92
- Magadan set1 total games average 10.67
- Bruna set1 had 4 tiebreaks in 13 matches
- Magadan set1 had 1 tiebreak in 3 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on clay have often been close, with Magadan's small sample showing particularly long sets.
- Bruna set2 total games average 9.69
- Magadan set2 total games average 11.33
- Bruna set2 had 2 tiebreaks in 13 matches
- Magadan set2 had 1 tiebreak in 3 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches average just above 25 games, and Bruna's tendency to play three sets pushes the total up.
- Bruna clay total games average 25.62
- Magadan clay total games average 25.33
- Bruna's 13 clay matches: 7 went to three sets
- Magadan's 3 clay matches: 1 went to three sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 25.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Bruna has lost the first set in nearly all his recent clay matches, making an early lead unlikely.
- Bruna set1 record on clay: 2-11
- Bruna set1 games won average 4.92 vs 6.00 lost
- Magadan clay set1 record: 1-2
- Bruna lost first set in 11 of 13 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlan MagadanEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Magadan has a winning second-set record on clay and Bruna has lost most of his second sets.
- Magadan clay set2 record: 2-1
- Magadan set2 games average 5.67 vs 5.67
- Bruna clay set2 record: 5-8
- Bruna lost 8 of 13 second sets on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlan MagadanEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bruna frequently forces a deciding set, and his second-set wins suggest he can take one set from Magadan.
- Bruna's 13 clay matches: 7 went to three sets
- Magadan's 3 clay matches: 1 went to three sets
- Bruna total sets average 2.54
- Magadan total sets average 2.33
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown tiebreaks in a meaningful share of their clay matches, with Magadan's small sample especially high.
- Bruna had 5 of 13 clay matches with a tiebreak
- Magadan had 2 of 3 clay matches with a tiebreak
- Bruna set1 had 4 tiebreaks in 13 matches
- Magadan set1 had 1 tiebreak in 3 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance54%

Nicolas Bruna

3W 12L

6-4 4-6 6-2#454Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

7-6(7) 6-1—Rocco Valente

6-3 7-6(2)#347Carlos Maria Zarate

6-4 4-6 6-2#558Maximo Zeitune

3-6 7-5 6-2#708Nicolas Villalon

6-4 6-3#329Gonzalo Villanueva

5-7 6-3 6-3—Fantino Alberca De Las Casas

7-6(2) 6-3#886Fnu Nidunjianzan

6-3 2-6 7-5#1377Vladislav Melnic

7-6(0) 6-2—Matei Florin Breazu

6-4 7-6(2)#635Stefan Popovic

4-1 ret.#472Corentin Denolly

6-4 2-6 6-4—Henrik Bladelius

6-4 6-4—Vlado Jankanj

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-4#885Boris Butulija

Alan Magadan

8W 7L

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#100Chak Lam Coleman Wong

4-6 6-0 6-4#477Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 7-6(6)#216Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(5)#212David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 7-5—Max Sheldon

6-3 7-6(6)#477Juan Alejandro Hernandez

2-6 6-1 6-1#433Garrett Johns

7-5 6-3#92Michael Zheng

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#294Stefan Kozlov

7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(4)#356Aidan Mayo

6-1 6-0—Owen Demuth

7-5 1-6 6-3#900Benjamin Thomas George

7-6(5) 6-3#248Matias Soto

7-5 7-5#834Johan Alexander Rodriguez

6-1 6-7(4) 6-4#270Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNicolas BrunaBruna

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Alan MagadanMagadanAM

Alan Magadan carries the stronger recent form — Nicolas Bruna's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In56.1%+2.6pp58.7%

1st Serve Won66.3%+2.7pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won45.6%+5.2pp50.8%

Aces / Match4.1+1.05.1

Double Faults / Match3.81.0 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.9%+3.0pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted30.4%+6.2pp36.6%

Break Pts Saved63.5%+4.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.5%+3.5pp51.0%

Serve · 0–5

56.1%1st Serve In+2.6pp58.7%

66.3%1st Serve Won+2.7pp69.0%

45.6%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp50.8%

4.1Aces / Match+1.05.1

3.8Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

37.9%Return Pts Won+3.0pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

30.4%Break Pts Converted+6.2pp36.6%

63.5%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp59.0%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won+3.5pp51.0%