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Predictions graded

Iva Jovic #16United States2Kamilla Rakhimova #83Uzbekistan0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Mon 5 Oct 2026, 05:17 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions6–460%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIva Jovic · 67 places

Iva Jovic

United States

Reached a career-high No. 16 in March 2026. Her stated favorite surface is grass, and she won her first WTA title at Guadalajara in 2025.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Jovic, ranked 13th, has the stronger hard-court record and beat Rakhimova already this year, but Rakhimova is 8-6 on the surface and took a set in that February meeting.

Jovic should come through, most likely in two sets. Rakhimova to win at 4.25, Rakhimova 2-1 at 7.5, Rakhimova to take the first set at 3.3 and Over 2.5 sets at 2.75 carry value; Jovic at 1.22 does not.

Context

Jovic leads this head-to-head 1-0, but the middle set went to Rakhimova 6-1.
The scoreline holds both halves of this matchup: Jovic won two sets by five games each while Rakhimova took the second 6-1. It is a single match from February 2026, so it says little about current form, but it is the only direct evidence between the two. Rakhimova has since won 8 of 14 hard-court matches in the tracked window, which is why the rematch is not a formality.
- Jovic beat Rakhimova 6-1 1-6 6-1 on 16 February 2026 in their only recorded meeting.
Rakhimova arrives off a three-set win over a top-30 player.
That Fernandez result is the strongest single win in her recent run and came two days after she edged Marina Bassols Ribera 6-4 7-6. Her hard-court form in this window also includes straight-set defeats by Katie Volynets and Aryna Sabalenka, so the picture is mixed rather than a steady climb. One win does not close a 63-place ranking gap, and the 14-match base behind her record is small.
- Rakhimova beat 26th-ranked Leylah Fernandez 6-2 4-6 6-3 on 3 October 2026 in her most recent completed match.
- She had beaten Marina Bassols Ribera 6-4 7-6 on 1 October 2026.
The opening set has been the more reliable part of Rakhimova's hard-court game in this window.
She is 9-5 in first sets and 6-8 in second sets across the same 14 matches, with three first-set tiebreaks against two in the second and five matches in total containing a tiebreak. The split is a record rather than an explanation, and both halves rest on the same small sample, with one retirement excluded. It does mean the first set is where her results hold up best, which matters against an opponent who has won 9 of her 13 hard-court first sets.
- Rakhimova won 9 of 14 first sets and lost 5 of 14 in hard-court matches tracked from 25 July to 3 October 2026.
- She won 6 of 14 second sets and lost 8 of 14.
- Five of the 14 matches contained a tiebreak, three in the first set and two in the second.
- One retirement was excluded from the 14-match sample.
Jovic has been efficient on hard courts, with only three defeats in the sample and all of them in straight sets.
Her scorelines read eight 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and three 0-2 losses, an average of 2.15 sets and 21.2 games per match. That shape is why a two-set result is the more likely one here, even though Jovic has also gone the distance twice in this window. The counterweight is Rakhimova, whose 14 hard-court matches average 2.36 sets and have produced five deciders.
- Jovic's 13 hard-court matches from 5 August to 3 October 2026 produced eight 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and three 0-2 losses.
- She averaged 2.15 sets and 21.2 games per hard-court match in that window.
- She won 20 of her 28 sets on the surface.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic is the higher-ranked player, has the better hard-court record and already beat Rakhimova this year.
- Iva Jovic is ranked 13th; Kamilla Rakhimova is 76th.
- Jovic is 10-3 on hard courts in the tracked sample, winning 20 of 28 sets.
- Jovic won the only previous meeting 6-1 1-6 6-1 in February 2026.
- Rakhimova is 8-6 on hard courts and her serve and return stats are unavailable, so her game-level level is unknown.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova only needs to stay within three games, and Jovic's hard-court game dominance is not large enough to assume a blowout.
- Jovic's hard-court game share of 56% implies a modest expected margin.
- Two of Jovic's last five wins came by margins of +2 and +3 games.
- Rakhimova pushed Fernandez to 6-2 4-6 6-3 and Kudermetova to three sets.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKamilla Rakhimova +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets are the shorter half for both players, and Rakhimova's weaker second-set record supports a quicker set.
- Jovic's second sets average 9.46 games; Rakhimova's average 9.14.
- Jovic's second-set games won/lost split is 5.54 to 3.92.
- Rakhimova has been beaten 0-6 and 3-6 in second sets during this window.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average around ten games, putting the opening set just above the 9.5 line.
- Jovic's first sets average 10.08 total games; Rakhimova's average 9.93.
- Jovic has two first-set tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches; Rakhimova has three in 14.
- Jovic's first-set games won/lost split is 5.31 to 4.77.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined game averages sit just above the line, so a match slightly longer than the average is marginally more likely.
- Jovic's hard-court matches average 21.2 total games; Rakhimova's average 22.6.
- Rakhimova has played five tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic's straight-set wins on hard courts averaged about 18-19 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Jovic's second-set record is strong while Rakhimova's is the weaker half of her match, which points to Jovic in set two.
- Jovic has won the second set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has lost the second set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic wins 71% of her hard-court sets overall.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic's first-set record on hard courts is strong and she is the better player over the opening exchanges.
- Jovic has won the first set in 9 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has lost the first set in 5 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic's first sets average 10.1 games with two tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic's habit of straight-set wins makes a two-set match the single most likely outcome.
- Jovic's eight 2-0 wins are her most common hard-court scoreline.
- Jovic's average sets played on hard courts is 2.15.
- Rakhimova's average sets played on hard courts is 2.36.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jovic usually settles her hard-court matches in straight sets and holds a clear ranking and form advantage.
- Jovic's hard-court scorelines are eight 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins and three 0-2 losses.
- She has won 20 of 28 hard-court sets (71%).
- Her last five hard-court wins came with game margins of +2, +6, +7, +9 and +3.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonIva Jovic 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic's matches rarely reach 6-6, and her strong return numbers point to breaks rather than tiebreaks.
- Jovic has played only two tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
- Only 7 of the 27 tracked hard-court matches between the two featured a tiebreak.
- Jovic breaks opponents 51.3% of the time on hard courts.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.22 price requires 82.0%, above our 72.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Iva Jovic: 7/9 recent winner projections matched

7 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Iva Jovic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Iva Jovic9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·58%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

58%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

62%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

10 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 1-6 6-1Iva Jovic#13vKamilla Rakhimova#76Feb 16, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Iva Jovic

11W 4L

2-6 6-3 6-3#116Harriet Dart

6-4 6-2#36Peyton Stearns

6-4 6-1#35Cristina Bucsa

6-2 6-1#48Magdalena Frech

7-6(5) 6-4#58Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 6-4#4Cori Gauff

7-5 3-6 7-5#18Alexandra Eala

6-4 6-4#105Francesca Jones

7-5 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#27Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-3#53Tamara Korpatsch

6-3 6-4#69Alina Korneeva

6-3 7-5#80Magda Linette

4-6 6-3 6-1#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 3-6 6-4#28Ekaterina Alexandrova

Kamilla Rakhimova

9W 6L

6-2 4-6 6-3#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#131Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#74Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#104Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#43Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#68Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#109Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 5-7 6-1#33Maria Sakkari

6-2 6-2#41Kimberly Birrell

6-4 6-0#3Jessica Pegula

6-7(1) 6-0 5-2 ret.#55Katerina Siniakova

6-4 6-1#599Venus Williams

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#394Heather Watson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IJIva JovicJovic

Last 15

6–0

9 core stats · 3 even

Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimovaKR

Iva Jovic carries the stronger recent form — Kamilla Rakhimova's route runs through 1st serve won.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.5%+3.3pp55.2%

1st Serve Won62.5%—62.4%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+3.8pp45.8%

Aces / Match2.7+0.62.1

Double Faults / Match2.13.6 fewer5.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won46.0%—45.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted52.3%—52.8%

Break Pts Saved62.4%+9.1pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.3pp50.4%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

58.5%1st Serve In+3.3pp55.2%

62.5%1st Serve Won—62.4%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp45.8%

2.7Aces / Match+0.62.1

2.1Double Faults / Match3.6 fewer5.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

46.0%Return Pts Won—45.7%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

52.3%Break Pts Converted—52.8%

62.4%Break Pts Saved+9.1pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.4%

Iva Jovic

Kamilla Rakhimova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova

Kamilla Rakhimova 2-1

Iva Jovic

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Iva Jovic

Head-to-Head

Iva Jovic

Kamilla Rakhimova

Stat Battle