Hynek Barton #263Czechia11 – 2Petr Nesterov #3642

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Nesterov has the deeper and better hard-court evidence, holding serve more securely and converting more break points, while Barton's numbers come almost entirely from clay.

• Nesterov 10-5 last 15 with 52.6% total points won; Barton 8-7 with 51.1%
• Nesterov 3-1 on hard this swing, saving 71.9% of break points
• Nesterov hard serve: 60.1% first serves in, 71.1% first-serve points won, 7.5 aces per match
• Barton has one completed hard match in the window (6-3 7-5 win); most recent form is clay

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Nesterov's hard matches have been long and competitive, and a close ranking gap suggests a tight, break-heavy contest.

• Nesterov's four hard matches averaged 25.5 total games
• Nesterov's hard matches averaged 113.5 minutes; Barton's hard match 67.8 minutes
• Three of Nesterov's four hard matches went to a deciding set
• Nesterov won 56.9% of hard-court games, Barton 61.9% in one match

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Nesterov's recent hard matches have repeatedly gone the distance, and the two players are closely matched on ranking and points won.

• Three of Nesterov's four hard matches went to a deciding set
• Nesterov's hard matches averaged 2.75 sets and 25.5 games
• Nesterov's hard scorelines: 2-1 twice, 1-2 once, 2-0 once
• Barton's single hard match finished in straight sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Nesterov has been notably stronger in second sets on hard, winning three of four while dropping few games.

• Nesterov is 3-1 in second sets across four hard matches
• Nesterov's hard second sets average 8.5 games and he wins 5.5 of them
• Barton won his only hard second set 7-5
• Nesterov holds 71.9% of break points on hard

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players serve with enough pace on hard that their combined ace count comfortably clears the line in a normal two- or three-set match.

• Barton served 10 aces in his one hard match this window
• Nesterov averages 7.5 aces per hard match
• Nesterov averages 3.8 aces per match overall
• Both players' hard first-serve points won exceed 71%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

None of the five combined hard matches this swing produced a tiebreak, with sets tending to be decided by breaks.

• No tiebreaks in Nesterov's four hard matches
• No tiebreak in Barton's one hard match
• Nesterov's hard first sets average 10.25 games without a tiebreak
• Barton's hard sets finished 6-3 and 7-5

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Nesterov's recent hard-court double-fault rate is high enough that the combined total can reach five in a multi-set match.

• Nesterov averages 3.3 double faults per hard match and 2.5 overall
• Barton averages 1.9 double faults per match overall
• Nesterov served 13 double faults across four hard matches
• Barton served one double fault in his hard match