Daniel Dutra Da Silva #417Brazil00 – 2Petr Nesterov #3962

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches frequently surpass 21.5 games, and their moderate break-point save rates suggest competitive, extended sets.

• Da Silva's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 total games, with 3 exceeding 21.5
• Nesterov's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 exceeding 21.5
• Both players have break-point save rates around 58%, indicating potential for extended games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set data shows a tendency for close, extended opening sets, with both players holding serve effectively enough to push past 9.5 games.

• Da Silva's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 over 9.5
• Nesterov's last 5 first sets averaged 10.0 games, with 4 over 9.5
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65-67%, limiting quick breaks

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive in recent matches, and the players' similar second-serve vulnerabilities could extend the set beyond 9.5 games.

• Da Silva's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 over 9.5
• Nesterov's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 over 9.5
• Both players have second-serve win rates near 50%, which can lead to longer games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent form and their balanced deciding-set records suggest a reasonable chance of a deciding set.

• Da Silva has gone to three sets in 2 of his last 5 matches
• Nesterov has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 5 matches
• Both players have deciding-set win rates around 50-66%, indicating no clear dominance