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Predictions graded

Filippo Moroni #864Italy2Ignacio Parisca #721Venezuela1

Sets 7-6 · 5-7 · 7-6Mon 5 Oct 2026, 12:42 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIgnacio Parisca · 143 places

Filippo Moroni

Italy

Italian right-hander ranked No. 864 for this match and competing in Bari qualifying. Public detail is thin beyond his ranking, playing hand and height.

Current ranking: #864
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Ignacio Parisca

Venezuela

Parisca, 21, has played the overwhelming majority of his recorded professional singles matches on clay. His current ranking of No. 721 is also his listed career high.

Current ranking: #721
Peak ranking: #721
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Parisca carries the better clay record into this Palermo Challenger third qualifying round, while Moroni has pushed four of his last five clay matches to a deciding set.

Parisca is the likelier winner, but the 1.65 price asks for 60.6% when the case for him is barely stronger — no advantage. Moroni at 2.1 is the one to leave alone. Neither quoted price in the reviewed markets is worth taking.

Context

The five-match clay sample, running from 28 April to 4 October 2026, produced scorelines of 2-1 twice, 1-2 twice and 0-2 once, so Moroni has rarely been finished off quickly. That record is the main reason the game-total and set-total forecasts lean long, and it is the clearest counterweight to Parisca's stronger clay results. It rests on five completed, non-retired matches, so it describes a pattern rather than a firm rate.
- Moroni's five completed clay matches (28 April – 4 October 2026) produced scorelines of 2-1 twice, 1-2 twice and 0-2 once
- Average 2.8 sets and 26.8 games per match across that five-match sample
- Set evidence covers completed, non-retired, same-surface best-of-three matches only
Parisca has won seven matches 2-0 and lost five 0-2 on clay in this sample, so his matches tend to resolve without a third set — the opposite shape to Moroni's recent record. If Parisca's first-set edge holds, the shorter route is the one his own results support. The 15-match sample is still modest, and five of those matches did feature a tiebreak.
- Across 15 completed clay matches (19 August – 4 October 2026) the scorelines were 2-0 seven times, 0-2 five times, 2-1 twice and 1-2 once
- Average 2.2 sets and 20.2 games per match in that sample
- Five of the 15 matches featured a tiebreak
Dropping no games across two sets is the most emphatic single result in either player's recent sample and shows Parisca finishing a clay match cleanly. It followed a 6-2 3-6 2-6 defeat to Franco Agamenone on 27 September, so his level across the sample has not been constant. One match says more about current clay comfort than about how this qualifying round will run.
- 4 October 2026: Parisca beat Gabriel Ghetu, ranked 563, 6-0 6-0 on clay
- It was his most recent completed match in the tracked sample
Beating a player ranked 367 places above him, and doing it in a third set, shows Moroni can stay with and close out a better-ranked opponent on clay. That result is the main reason the 2.1 price for him to win this match was treated cautiously. It remains a single match inside a 2-3 clay record, so it is a counterweight to Parisca's stronger overall form rather than a trend.
- 4 October 2026: Moroni beat Alex Marti Pujolras, ranked 497, 7-6 6-7 6-1 on clay
- Moroni is ranked 864 and is 2-3 on clay across five tracked matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Parisca has the stronger clay record and higher ranking, and he won his most recent clay match 6-0 6-0.
- Parisca is ranked 659, Moroni 864.
- Parisca is 9-6 on clay over his last 15 matches, with 52.1% of total points and 53.1% of games won.
- Parisca has won 9 of 15 first sets on clay.
- Moroni is 2-3 on clay over his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIgnacio PariscaEstimated chance61%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Parisca's second sets often finish with nine or fewer games, especially when he wins in straight sets.
- Parisca's clay second sets average 8.9 total games.
- Moroni's clay second sets average 10.0 total games.
- Parisca has had second sets of 1-6 and 6-4 in recent clay matches.
- Moroni has one tiebreak in five clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moroni's clay matches often run long, and Parisca's three-set matches have also produced high game totals.
- Moroni's last three clay matches lasted 33, 29 and 26 games.
- Moroni's clay total-games average is 26.8.
- Parisca's clay total-games average is 20.2.
- Parisca's three-set clay matches against Agamenone and Marti Pujolras lasted 25 and 33 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets on clay have often been tight for both players, with several tiebreaks.
- Moroni's clay first sets average 10.8 total games.
- Parisca's clay first sets average 9.4 total games.
- Moroni has two tiebreaks in five clay first sets.
- Parisca has four tiebreaks in 15 clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Parisca starts clay matches better and holds a clear first-set record.
- Parisca has won 9 of 15 first sets on clay.
- Parisca averages 5.3 games won and 4.1 lost in first sets on clay.
- Moroni has won 2 of 5 first sets on clay.
- Moroni averages 5.2 games won and 5.6 lost in first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIgnacio PariscaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Parisca has a slightly better second-set record and more clay matches in the sample.
- Parisca is 8-7 in second sets on clay over 15 matches.
- Parisca averages 4.5 games won and 4.4 lost in second sets on clay.
- Moroni is 2-3 in second sets on clay over 5 matches.
- Moroni averages 5.2 games won and 4.8 lost in second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIgnacio PariscaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moroni regularly takes clay matches the distance, raising the chance of three sets.
- Four of Moroni's five clay matches went to a deciding set.
- Moroni's clay total-sets average is 2.8.
- Parisca's clay total-sets average is 2.2.
- Three of Parisca's 15 clay matches went to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Parisca's clay matches in the sample finished without a tiebreak.
- Parisca has had 10 of 15 clay matches without a tiebreak.
- Moroni has had three of five clay matches without a tiebreak.
- Parisca's clay second sets include only one tiebreak in 15.
- Parisca won his most recent clay match 6-0 6-0 without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Filippo Moroni

7W 8L

7-6(3) 6-7(4) 6-1#497Alex Marti Pujolras

7-6(3) 1-6 6-3#523Fabrizio Andaloro

4-6 6-3 6-1#521Gianmarco Ferrari

6-4 6-2#546Menelaos Efstathiou

6-0 2-6 6-1—Filippo Mazzola

7-6(3) 6-1#459Emile Hudd

6-3 4-6 6-3#1466Pasquale De Giorgio

6-3 7-5#854Pawel Juszczak

6-3 6-3#589Daniel De Jonge

6-3 6-3—Jeremy Gschwendtner

6-2 3-0 ret.—Andreas Timini

6-1 1-0 ret.#339Tiago Pereira

3-6 6-4 7-5—Ivan Dreycopp

7-6(3) 6-3#523Fabrizio Andaloro

3-6 6-3 6-1—Lorenzo Ferri

Ignacio Parisca

9W 6L

6-0 6-0#563Gabriel Ghetu

2-6 6-3 6-2#375Franco Agamenone

7-6(6) 1-6 7-6(5)#497Alex Marti Pujolras

6-4 6-4#446Ivan Gakhov

6-1 6-4—Cian Maguire

6-1 6-1#412Ryan Nijboer

6-2 6-3#1149Alejandro Garcia

6-2 6-2—Alexander Petrov

7-5 6-0#611Yanaki Milev

6-2 6-4#494Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-7(11) 6-4 6-2#591Amit Vales

6-2 6-2—Unknown Player

7-6(2) 6-4#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-1 7-6(1)#559Alexander Ritschard

7-6(3) 6-4#446Ivan Gakhov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilippo MoroniMoroni

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Ignacio PariscaPariscaIP

Ignacio Parisca carries the stronger recent form — Filippo Moroni's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.0%+6.7pp58.3%

1st Serve Won64.4%+4.5pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won40.4%+10.0pp50.4%

Aces / Match1.3+0.41.7

Double Faults / Match3.20.5 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.4%+1.7pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted50.4%—51.1%

Break Pts Saved53.3%+1.4pp54.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+1.5pp52.1%

Serve · 2–3

65.0%1st Serve In+6.7pp58.3%

64.4%1st Serve Won+4.5pp68.9%

40.4%2nd Serve Won+10.0pp50.4%

1.3Aces / Match+0.41.7

3.2Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

45.4%Return Pts Won+1.7pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

50.4%Break Pts Converted—51.1%

53.3%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp54.7%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+1.5pp52.1%