ChinaWTA BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alina Charaeva #112Armenia2Sonay Kartal #129United Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 6-1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 06:57 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlina Charaeva · 17 places

Alina Charaeva

Armenia

The WTA lists Charaeva at a career-high No. 112 in July 2026. The ITF identifies hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #112 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Sonay Kartal

United Kingdom

Right-hander ranked No. 129 whose recent tennis has come almost entirely on hard courts. She returned to competition in September after six months out, losing a three-set match in Shenzhen in her first outing since March.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 16:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Kartal brings the better hard-court season and two straight-set wins in Beijing, while Charaeva keeps winning long matches, including a three-set defeat of world No.

1 Rybakina on 3 October. Kartal is the likelier winner, but 1.5 on her match win is not a price to take. Six quoted selections do offer something: Charaeva at 2.6, Charaeva 2-1 at 5.25, over 23.5 games and over 2.5 sets at 2.4, Kartal's first set at 1.55 and Charaeva +3.5 games at 1.8.

Context

Kartal played no competitive matches between March and late September 2026, so her No. 129 ranking sits on a season disrupted by a six-month gap rather than a steady run of events. Her return has been confined to hard courts in Asia, beginning with a three-set loss in Shenzhen before she entered the Beijing draw. That makes recent match rhythm, more than ranking, the relevant guide to this fixture. The limitation is that she has completed only a handful of matches since returning, so her current level is still being established.
- Kartal's first match since March 2026 was a three-set loss in Shenzhen on 22 September 2026, before she entered the Beijing main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 16:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Charaeva arrives at this third round off the biggest win of her recent record.
Rybakina was the world No. 1 that day, so this is the strongest single result in Charaeva's recent record, and it came two days before this match. It also ran to 28 games across three sets, in keeping with the long matches she has been playing rather than a quick, clean win. The counterpoint is the sample: one match against a top seed, while Kartal has lost only one of three completed matches since returning.
- Charaeva beat Elena Rybakina (ranked No. 1) 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in Beijing on 3 October 2026.
- The match went three sets and 28 games, 15-13 to Charaeva.
Charaeva's recent hard-court matches have often started badly and finished well.
Losing the first set in seven of 10 hard-court matches leaves Charaeva repairing the scoreboard more often than not, and Kartal's 9-5 first-set record offers little encouragement. She has still won six of those matches, though, with four 2-1 scorelines, so an early deficit is not decisive on its own. The risk on the other side is rhythm: Kartal has completed only three matches since her long break, so a fast start for her is expected rather than certain.
- Charaeva's first-set record on hard is 3-7 across 10 matches (11 August – 3 October 2026).
- She averaged 4.4 games won and 5.2 games lost in first sets in that sample.
- Her hard-court matches average 26.5 games and include four 2-1 wins.
Kartal has been closing hard-court matches quickly more often than not.
Seven straight-set wins in 14 matches means short matches are Kartal's usual outcome, and her 21.9-game average sits below Charaeva's 26.5 on the same surface. That profile supports a quicker finish than the three-setters Charaeva has been playing, though the sample mixes February and March events with her post-return matches in Asia, and one retired match is excluded.
- Kartal is 10-4 across 14 tracked hard-court matches (2 February – 3 October 2026), with seven 2-0 wins and three 2-1 wins.
- Her hard-court matches average 21.9 total games and 2.36 sets.
- The aggregate excludes one retired match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kartal's stronger hard-court form and better first-set record give her the edge.
- Kartal is 10-4 on hard this season, including wins over top-25 players.
- Kartal has won her last two Beijing matches in straight sets.
- Charaeva has lost the first set in 7 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Kartal's set1 win rate on hard is 9-5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSonay KartalEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Charaeva's competitive matches suggest she will keep the game margin within 3.5.
- Charaeva's average game margin on hard is +1.2.
- She has lost by more than 3.5 games in only 2 of her last 6 matches.
- Kartal's average game margin is +3.8 overall on hard.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlina Charaeva +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kartal's tendency to win first sets without many games favors the under.
- Kartal's first sets average 9.3 games on hard.
- Kartal has kept first sets under 9.5 in 4 of her last 6 matches.
- Charaeva's first-set average is 9.6, but against Kartal's solid serving it could be lower.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's second sets are consistently high in games, often going over 9.5.
- Charaeva's second sets average 11.1 games on hard.
- Charaeva has had 5 of her last 6 second sets go over 9.5.
- Kartal's second sets average 9.0 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Charaeva's tendency to play long matches pushes the total games higher.
- Charaeva's hard-court matches average 26.5 total games.
- Kartal's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games.
- Charaeva has played six three-set matches in her last 10.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kartal's consistent first-set strength contrasts with Charaeva's slow starts.
- Kartal has won 9 of 14 first sets on hard this season.
- Charaeva has lost 7 of 10 first sets on hard.
- Kartal's average first-set games won is 5.1.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSonay KartalEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kartal's second-set record is slightly better and she often maintains momentum.
- Kartal has won 10 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Charaeva's second-set win rate is 7-3.
- Kartal's average second-set games won is 5.1.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSonay KartalEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kartal's efficiency in closing matches suggests a straight-set outcome is more likely.
- Kartal has won 7 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Kartal's total sets average is 2.36.
- Charaeva's total sets average is 2.6.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of their recent matches on hard have not featured a tiebreak.
- 7 of Charaeva's 10 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- 11 of Kartal's 14 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Kartal often wins sets without reaching 6-6.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Alina Charaeva

9W 6L

3-6 6-4 6-3#1Elena Rybakina

5-7 7-5 6-2#45Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-4 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#64Anna Bondar

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#107Sofia Kenin

6-4 7-5#89Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#155Elina Avanesyan

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#203Xiaodi You

6-4 6-4#141Susan Bandecchi

4-6 6-4 6-3#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 6-3#630Rebecca Marino

6-1 7-6(3)#64Anna Bondar

5-7 7-5 7-5#95Sinja Kraus

3-6 7-5 6-1#194Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 6-3#82Yulia Putintseva

6-0 6-1#176Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Sonay Kartal

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#38Xinyu Wang

6-2 6-3#137Andrea Lazaro Garcia

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#27Marie Bouzkova

6-4 4-3 ret.#1Elena Rybakina

2-6 6-2 6-3#23Madison Keys

6-1 3-6 7-6(2)#24Emma Navarro

6-4 6-4#63Lanlana Tararudee

6-4 6-3#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-4 6-1#182Storm Hunter

6-4 3-6 6-3#80Magda Linette

7-5 6-3#41Kimberly Birrell

7-5 2-6 6-4#98Simona Waltert

6-0 6-2#29Sara Bejlek

6-0 6-3#94Renata Zarazua

6-3 7-6(8)#35Cristina Bucsa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ACAlina CharaevaCharaeva

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Sonay KartalKartalSK

Sonay Kartal carries the stronger recent form — Alina Charaeva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.9%+6.1pp65.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1561.9%+4.3pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1542.2%+9.1pp51.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.3+1.12.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/156.15.2 fewer0.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1547.2%+2.8pp44.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1545.4%—45.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1552.5%+1.3pp53.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%+1.9pp52.4%

Serve · 1–4

58.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.1pp65.0%

61.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp66.2%

42.2%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+9.1pp51.3%

3.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.12.2

6.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.2 fewer0.9

Return · 1–0

47.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.8pp44.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

45.4%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15—45.6%

52.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp53.8%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp52.4%

Alina Charaeva #112Armenia2Sonay Kartal #129United Kingdom0

Player Profiles

Alina Charaeva

Sonay Kartal

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sonay Kartal

Alina Charaeva +3.5

Over 23.5

Over 2.5

Alina Charaeva

Alina Charaeva 2-1

Sonay Kartal

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alina Charaeva

Sonay Kartal

Stat Battle