ChinaATP BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Hubert Hurkacz #72Poland2Karen Khachanov #39Russia0

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Sun 4 Oct 2026, 05:13 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaren Khachanov · 33 places

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

Reached career-high No. 6 in August 2024 and lists hard as his preferred surface. He entered Montreal using a protected ranking following knee surgery and his 2026 comeback.

Current ranking: #72
Peak ranking: #6 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Karen Khachanov

Russia

Russian player born 21 May 1996. His ITF profile lists a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 8 in July 2019 and preferred surfaces of hard and clay.

Current ranking: #39
Peak ranking: #8 · 2019
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard, Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Freshness against serving form decides this Beijing quarter-final: Khachanov has won both matches here in straight sets after a three-week break, while Hurkacz has played seven of the last nine days.

Hurkacz's serve and 12-3 hard-court run make him a slight favourite. At 2.05, he is the price worth taking; Khachanov at 1.75 asks for more than his week supports.

Context

Hurkacz has competed on seven of the last nine days, including five matches in six days in Chengdu and back-to-back three-setters in Beijing. Khachanov reached the same round with two straight-set wins after three weeks without a tour match, so the two arrive in opposite physical states. The load matters most for a player whose game depends on serving and ending points early, and it is the clearest preparation difference in this fixture. It is not automatically decisive, because three-set wins also build rhythm and Hurkacz has won five of his last six completed matches on this swing.
- Hurkacz played on 24, 26, 27, 28 and 29 September in Chengdu, then on 1 and in Beijing.
- Khachanov's two Beijing wins, over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex Molcan, were straight-sets and followed a three-week gap since the US Open.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest
The semi-final in New York is the strongest recent form marker on either side of this draw and it came on the hard courts the tour has just left. Khachanov carried that level into Beijing, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex Molcan without dropping a set. That is the benchmark against which Hurkacz's own Chengdu run should be read. The limitation is time: he had not competed for three weeks between the US Open and Beijing, so his New York serving numbers need not carry straight over.
- Khachanov's New York run ended in the semi-finals against Alexander Zverev.
- He had won seven of his last eight matches before Beijing, including straight-set wins over Auger-Aliassime and Molcan.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Four wins in Chengdu gave Hurkacz his deepest run of the autumn and lifted him back to the edge of the top 40. The final also showed the cost of his style, with Davidovich Fokina taking both sets once rallies extended and the match ending in a second-set tie-break. That is a relevant frame against an opponent who defends well from the baseline. The run left him roughly two days before his Beijing opener, which is the trade-off behind his current form.
- Hurkacz reached the Chengdu final and lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in straight sets.
- The final was played on 29 September and his Beijing opener followed .
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Removing the draw's second seed in straight sets is the strongest result of Khachanov's Beijing week and it confirms his form has travelled with him from New York. Auger-Aliassime had already lost to him in four sets at the US Open, so the same opponent has now been beaten twice in a month. It raises the quality of what Khachanov has handled in this exact draw. One straight-set result does not show how he will respond if Hurkacz's serve keeps him out of return games.
- Khachanov beat second seed Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-3 6-3 on 30 September in Beijing.
- Khachanov had also beaten Auger-Aliassime in four sets during his US Open run.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:23 · Europe/BucharestBeijing 2026 match pageen.tennistemple.com · 2 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Hurkacz has the better recent hard-court record and the stronger serve, which gives him a narrow edge in a close match.
- Hurkacz is 12-3 across his last 15 hard-court matches and 11-2 in completed same-surface best-of-3 matches.
- He has won 27 of 41 sets (65.9%) and 55.8% of games on this surface.
- Serve numbers: 13.1 aces per match, 76.9% first-serve points won, 76.7% of break points saved.
- Khachanov is 8-6 in his last 14 and 6-4 on hard courts in the same window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
In an even match, Khachanov winning, losing narrowly or by a small margin covers this line more often than not.
- Khachanov won his two Beijing matches by five and six games.
- Hurkacz's margins in his last six completed hard-court matches include a -3.
- The match is close to even, so single-game margins are common.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKaren Khachanov +1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Two strong servers in a close match make 6-4, 7-5 and 7-6 first sets more likely than short sets.
- Hurkacz's first sets average 10.4 games with three tiebreaks in 13 matches.
- Khachanov's first sets average 10.2 games.
- Both players hold serve at a high rate, limiting early breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two serve-based games plus Hurkacz's long matches point to a total around or above this line.
- Hurkacz's same-surface matches average 25.7 games.
- Khachanov's same-surface matches average 22.8 games.
- Hurkacz's two Beijing matches produced 31 and 34 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 24.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hurkacz's second-set record on this surface is strong, often coming after dropping the opener.
- Hurkacz has won 10 of 13 second sets in same-surface best-of-3 matches.
- He won the second set in five of his last six completed hard-court matches.
- Khachanov has won 2 of 5 second sets in the same-surface sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hurkacz regularly plays long matches and both players hold serve well, so a decider is more likely than not.
- Seven of Hurkacz's 13 same-surface best-of-3 matches went to three sets.
- Hurkacz averages 2.54 sets per match, Khachanov 2.2.
- Both of Hurkacz's Beijing matches went to a decider.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The overall first-set record is close to even and the match itself is near-even, so the edge is minimal.
- Hurkacz has won 7 of 13 first sets in same-surface best-of-3 matches.
- He won the opening set in only two of his last six completed hard-court matches.
- Khachanov has won 3 of 5 first sets in that same-surface sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sets have often been decided by a single break rather than a tiebreak, particularly in Khachanov's matches.
- Only two of Khachanov's five same-surface matches had a tiebreak.
- His two Beijing wins were 6-3 6-3 and 7-5 6-3.
- Hurkacz's same-surface tiebreak rate is six matches in 13.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Hubert Hurkacz: 3/7 recent winner projections matched

3 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Hubert Hurkacz matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Hubert Hurkacz7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·55%

Missed

5 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

Hubert Hurkacz to win

55%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-0#110Sebastian Ofner

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·72%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-0#110Sebastian Ofner

Hubert Hurkacz to win

72%probability

Hubert Hurkacz won

Matched

17 Jun·ATP Halle

#103Hubert Hurkacz1-2#81Daniel Altmaier

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·72%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#103Hubert Hurkacz1-2#81Daniel Altmaier

Hubert Hurkacz to win

72%probability

Daniel Altmaier won

Missed

9 Jun·ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#99Hubert Hurkacz1-2#65Marton Fucsovics

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#99Hubert Hurkacz1-2#65Marton Fucsovics

Hubert Hurkacz to win

62%probability

Marton Fucsovics won

Missed

6 May·ATP Rome

#53Hubert Hurkacz1-2#59Yannick Hanfmann

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·62%

Missed

6 May 2026

ATP Rome

#53Hubert Hurkacz1-2#59Yannick Hanfmann

Hubert Hurkacz to win

62%probability

Yannick Hanfmann won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 7-6(3)Hubert Hurkacz#41vKaren Khachanov#26Oct 21, 2019

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Hubert Hurkacz

12W 3L

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 6-2#58Arthur Gea

5-7 6-3 6-4#15Learner Tien

6-4 7-6(7)#28Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-7(8) 6-3 6-3#46Denis Shapovalov

7-6(10) 6-4#125Lloyd Harris

4-6 6-3 6-4#103Martin Damm

6-3 7-6(10)#109Alexander Shevchenko

6-3 5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#4Ben Shelton

6-4 4-6 6-1 6-1#102Damir Dzumhur

4-6 6-0 6-3#51Sebastian Baez

6-3 6-4#371Moez Echargui

6-4 6-3#84Roman Safiullin

6-2 4-6 6-4#127Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#16Tommy Paul

6-2 6-4#108Sho Shimabukuro

Karen Khachanov

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#96Alex Molcan

6-3 6-3#5Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 7-6(7) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-2 7-5 3-2 ret.#27Alexander Blockx

7-5 4-6 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4#15Learner Tien

6-3 6-2 6-4#90Benjamin Bonzi

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2#5Felix Auger Aliassime

6-3 6-0 6-1#60Roman Andres Burruchaga

5-7 6-3 7-6(2)#79Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 7-6(3)#99Terence Atmane

6-2 6-4#184Bernard Tomic

0-6 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#7Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4 6-4#54Yannick Hanfmann

6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3#237Billy Harris

1-6 6-4 6-4#65Ethan Quinn

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HHHubert HurkaczHurkacz

Last 15

3–2

9 core stats · 4 even

Karen KhachanovKhachanovKK

Hubert Hurkacz carries the stronger recent form — Karen Khachanov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In66.7%+6.4pp60.3%

1st Serve Won76.9%—77.6%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+2.3pp55.0%

Aces / Match13.1+4.88.3

Double Faults / Match2.9—3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+1.9pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.7%—45.5%

Break Pts Saved76.7%+6.9pp69.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.6%—53.3%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

66.7%1st Serve In+6.4pp60.3%

76.9%1st Serve Won—77.6%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp55.0%

13.1Aces / Match+4.88.3

2.9Double Faults / Match—3.1

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+1.9pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

45.7%Break Pts Converted—45.5%

76.7%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp69.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.6%Total Pts Won—53.3%