Hubert Hurkacz #99Poland11 – 2Marton Fucsovics #65Hungary2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Both players' serve-oriented styles and history of tight matches suggest a competitive, over-total encounter.

• Hurkacz last 5 Bo3/Bo5 matches: avg 28.6 total games, 4 of 5 went over 22.5
• Fucsovics last 5 completed matches: avg 22.2 total games, 3 of 5 went over 22.5
• H2H matches: 30, 29, 29 total games, all over 22.5
• Both players have strong hold games on grass: Hurkacz 75% first-serve win%, Fucsovics 70.7%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Second sets in their matches often extend beyond 9.5 games, supported by both players' recent set-length trends.

• Hurkacz last 5 second sets: avg 10.2 games, 4 of 5 over 9.5
• Fucsovics last 5 second sets: avg 9.6 games, 3 of 5 over 9.5
• H2H second sets: 13, 9, 9 games, 2 of 3 over 9.5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Fucsovics's grass competence and tight H2H history suggest he can keep the match within 3.5 games, even in a loss.

• H2H margins: Fucsovics won by 2, 3, and 3 games; all within 3.5 games
• Fucsovics career grass win%: 65.1%, competitive on surface
• Hurkacz last 5 wins: margins of 2, 7, 3, 7, 6 games; only 2 of 5 covered -3.5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Hurkacz's strong first-set record and Fucsovics's recent first-set struggles give Hurkacz an edge in the opener.

• Hurkacz first-set win conversion career: 84%, Fucsovics: 83%
• Hurkacz last 5 first sets: won 3 (vs Berrettini, Burruchaga, Nava), lost 2 (vs Tiafoe, Hanfmann)
• Fucsovics last 5 first sets: won 1 (vs O'Connell), lost 4 (vs Berrettini, Prizmic, Carreno-Busta, Tabilo)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The H2H history of three-setters and both players' tendency to play close matches on grass make a deciding set likely.

• Hurkacz last 5 Bo3 matches: 3 went to deciding set
• Fucsovics last 5 Bo3 matches: 2 went to deciding set
• H2H: all 3 matches went to deciding set
• Both players have deciding-set win% around 54-55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' serve-oriented games and history of tight sets make a tiebreak highly probable in this matchup.

• Hurkacz tiebreak win%: 52%, Fucsovics: 47%
• Hurkacz last 5 matches: 3 tiebreaks played
• Fucsovics last 5 matches: 2 tiebreaks played
• H2H: 2 of 3 matches featured at least one tiebreak

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Hurkacz's elite ace rate and the grass surface should push combined aces over 16.5, with Fucsovics contributing modestly.

• Hurkacz ace rate: 11.8% (career), projects ~10 aces per match on grass
• Fucsovics ace rate: 5.6%, but grass boosts ace counts; H2H aces: Hurkacz 19, Fucsovics 16 in 3 matches
• Grass surface amplifies serve dominance for both

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Historical H2H double-fault counts and grass-court dynamics slightly favor over 7.5, though confidence is low due to variability.

• Hurkacz double-fault rate: 3.6% (career), Fucsovics: 4.2%
• H2H double faults: Hurkacz 9, Fucsovics 14 in 3 matches (avg 7.7 per match)
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves