ChinaWTA BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Sara Bejlek #38Czechia2Maddison Inglis #132Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 7-5Sat 3 Oct 2026, 02:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–189%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Bejlek · 94 places

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born January 31, 2006. She reached a career-high No. 34 in April 2026 and won her first WTA singles title from qualifying in Abu Dhabi earlier that season.

Current ranking: #38
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Maddison Inglis

Australia

Inglis is 28, right-handed, and 171 cm. Her listed career-best singles ranking is No. 112.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #112
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 15:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Bejlek, No. 29, meets No.

140 Inglis in the Beijing second round, pitting Bejlek's stronger hard-court résumé and Cincinnati wins over Sabalenka and Keys against an opponent who has won three straight-set matches in Beijing while Bejlek has not played since 17 September. Bejlek is the likelier winner, but 1.3 does not justify it. The Inglis prices do: a 2.5-game head start at 2.6, a 2-0 win at 6.00, the opening set at 2.9 and the match at 3.5.

Context

Inglis is 28 and ranked No. 140, so a WTA 1000 main-draw win is new ground for her, and her best 2026 result before Beijing was a WTA 125 final in Vancouver. Beating a top-60 opponent in straight sets, after two qualifying wins on the same courts, is the best current evidence of her level on outdoor hard courts. The limitation is that nothing she has done this week involved a top-30 opponent, which is the ranking level she now faces.
- Inglis beat Zeynep Sonmez 6-4 6-4 in the Beijing first round .
- It was her first main-draw win at WTA 1000 level, at 28 and ranked No. 140.
- Her previous best result of the 2026 season was a WTA 125 final in Vancouver in August, where Taylah Preston beat her.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:55 · Europe/Bucharest
The fixture sets recent match play against a longer break: Inglis has played three straight-sets matches in four days on the Beijing courts, while Bejlek's last singles match came 15 days earlier in Guadalajara. Inglis gains timing and surface familiarity, while Bejlek gains recovery and preparation time without a competitive singles hit on these courts. The volume of Inglis's workload is modest because none of her three matches went to three sets, so this is a rhythm-against-freshness contrast rather than a fatigue problem.
- Inglis won qualifying rounds over Xinxin Yao 6-1 7-5 on 28 September and Darya Astakhova 6-2 7-5, then her first-round match .
- Bejlek's last recorded singles match was a 6-0 6-4 defeat to Cristina Bucsa in the Guadalajara quarter-finals on 17 September 2026.
- All three of Inglis's matches in Beijing were completed in straight sets.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Cincinnati is the strongest evidence of Bejlek's hard-court level this season: four wins in one week, including a tie-break win over Aryna Sabalenka and a win over Madison Keys, before Coco Gauff ended the run on 22 August. It matters for this fixture because the surface is the same outdoor hard court. The limitation is timing, since the run finished five weeks ago and her only matches since were a Guadalajara round-of-16 win and a 6-0 6-4 quarter-final loss to Cristina Bucsa.
- Bejlek reached the Cincinnati semi-finals in August 2026 after beating Aryna Sabalenka.
- Her Cincinnati run included wins over Sabalenka, Barbora Krejcikova and Ekaterina Alexandrova, with Sabalenka beaten in a tie-break.
- Coco Gauff beat her 6-4 6-1 on 22 August 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Bejlek spent the week before Beijing at the Billie Jean King Cup finals in Shenzhen, where Czechia won the title, so she entered this swing through a team event in China rather than a settled singles build-up. The limitation is that it was a squad achievement: she was one of five named players, the singles load across Czechia's three ties was carried elsewhere, and no individual contribution from her is documented. It is a current milestone and travel circumstance rather than evidence about her own singles level this week.
- Czechia beat Ukraine in the Shenzhen final for a 12th Billie Jean King Cup title, the first since 2018.
- Bejlek was one of five named Czech finals players, alongside Katerina Siniakova, Marie Bouzkova, Karolina Muchova and Linda Noskova.
- The finals week was reported as one lost set across Czechia's three ties, with no individual singles contribution from Bejlek documented.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:55 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek is the higher-ranked player and has recently beaten top-10 hard-court opposition, which outweighs Inglis's sharper but lower-level match record.
- Bejlek is ranked No. 29; Inglis is No. 140.
- Bejlek's last-15 hard-court record is 9-6 and includes a Cincinnati win over Sabalenka plus wins over Keys and Krejcikova.
- Inglis's best win in her 7-2 hard-court run was over No. 58 Sonmez, with the other wins against players ranked 187 and 271.
- Bejlek's last-15 hard matches average 21.5 games and 2.33 sets against stronger opposition than Inglis has faced.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSara BejlekEstimated chance63%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Inglis has been winning comfortably in Beijing, and the cushion covers even a narrow two-game loss.
- Inglis covered a +2.5 game line in four of her last six completed hard-court matches.
- Her three Beijing wins came by margins of +4, +6 and +7 games.
- Bejlek's three most recent defeats came by margins of -8, -5 and -7 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaddison Inglis +2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two players with averages close to the line and a realistic chance of a deciding set leave the total near a coin flip with a slight over lean.
- Bejlek's last-15 hard-court matches average 21.5 total games; Inglis's nine average 20.1.
- Bejlek has played five three-setters in 15 hard-court matches; Inglis one in nine.
- Bejlek's most recent six hard-court totals were 16, 19, 29, 17, 32 and 23 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players have tended to finish at nine games or fewer, and Bejlek has been broken early often.
- Bejlek's first sets average 9.4 total games; Inglis's average 9.1.
- Inglis won her Beijing first sets 6-4, 6-2 and 6-1.
- Only three of Bejlek's 15 hard-court first sets went to a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' recent hard-court records, making two sets the more likely outcome.
- Inglis has gone to a third set once in nine hard-court matches.
- Bejlek's scorelines in her last 15 hard matches include ten straight-set finishes.
- Inglis's set evidence totals 2.11 sets per match on hard.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek's higher level against much stronger opposition gives her the edge in the opening set despite Inglis's better raw first-set count.
- Bejlek has won the first set in seven of her last 15 hard-court matches.
- Inglis has won the first set in seven of nine hard-court matches.
- Bejlek's first sets average 4.4 games won to 5.0 lost; Inglis's 5.7 to 3.4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSara BejlekEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is close to even, with Bejlek's overall level giving her a small edge over Inglis.
- Bejlek has won the second set in eight of 15 hard-court matches.
- Inglis has won the second set in six of nine hard-court matches.
- Bejlek's second sets average 4.7 games won to 4.3 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSara BejlekEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The large majority of both players' recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Eleven of Bejlek's last 15 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Seven of Inglis's nine hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Inglis's three Beijing matches were all completed without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's hard-court serving numbers point to seven or more double faults in a normal-length match.
- Inglis has 21 double faults in eight hard-court matches; Bejlek has 36 in 15.
- Both players' hard-court double-fault rates are between two and three per match.
- The two totals combined sit at roughly five per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Inglis serves with more power than Bejlek, and the combined ace rate sits slightly above this line.
- Inglis averages 2.9 aces per match on hard and 2.2 overall.
- Bejlek averages 1.2 aces per match on hard.
- Combined hard-court averages are just above four aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance56%

Previous match context available

Sara Bejlek

9W 6L

6-0 6-4#35Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-3#70Alycia Parks

7-5 4-6 6-1#35Cristina Bucsa

6-4 6-1#4Cori Gauff

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#23Madison Keys

7-6(7) 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

4-6 6-1 6-2#28Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-6(5) 6-4#43Barbora Krejcikova

6-0 6-2#51Karolina Pliskova

6-0 6-3#9Iga Swiatek

6-3 4-6 7-5#85Xiyu Wang

6-3 6-4#61Lilli Tagger

6-1 6-1#68Maria Timofeeva

7-6(9) 3-6 6-1#89Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#44Clara Tauson

Maddison Inglis

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#58Zeynep Sonmez 6-2 7-5#187Darya Astakhova 6-1 7-5#271Xinxin Yao

6-3 6-0#182Storm Hunter

7-6(5) 6-3#91Taylah Preston

6-3 6-4#177Mai Hontama

6-4 6-7(9) 6-3#106Moyuka Uchijima

6-1 6-3#217Greetje Minnen

6-3 6-3#159Sofia Costoulas

6-3 3-6 6-4#132Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 5-7 6-2#16Sorana Cirstea

6-3 2-6 6-2#240Hanyu Guo

5-7 6-4 6-4#70Alycia Parks

6-2 6-3#219Celine Naef

6-1 7-5#171Robin Montgomery

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SBSara BejlekBejlek

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Maddison InglisInglisMI

Sara Bejlek carries the stronger recent form — Maddison Inglis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.1%+2.3pp60.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1561.1%+6.7pp67.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.8%—48.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/151.2+1.02.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.41.2 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1543.4%+2.3pp41.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1543.3%+4.7pp48.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.2%+4.4pp48.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1549.7%—50.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp60.8%

61.1%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.7pp67.8%

47.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—48.0%

1.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.02.2

2.4Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.2 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

43.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp41.1%

Pressure · 1–1

43.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.7pp48.0%

53.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.4pp48.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.3%

Sara Bejlek

Maddison Inglis

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maddison Inglis +2.5

Maddison Inglis

Maddison Inglis

Maddison Inglis 2-0

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Sara Bejlek

Maddison Inglis

Stat Battle