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Predictions graded

Maddison Inglis #132Australia2Darya Astakhova #231Russia0

Sets 6-2 · 7-5Tue 29 Sept 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–550%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaddison Inglis · 99 places

Maddison Inglis

Australia

Inglis is 28, right-handed, and 171 cm. Her listed career-best singles ranking is No. 112.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #112
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 171 cm

Darya Astakhova

Russia

Russian right-hander, born 26 January 2002. Listed at No. 231 on 10 August 2026, with a reported 20-11 record in 2026.

Current ranking: #231
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 19:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Astakhova arrives with 9 wins in 12 completed hard-court matches and an upset of Magda Linette in Seoul; Inglis arrives after five weeks without a completed match.

That makes Astakhova the likelier winner, with her heavy run since 19 September the main risk. Astakhova at 2.1 to win the match and 2.1 to take the first set are the two worthwhile quoted prices; Inglis at 1.73 asks more than her record supports.

Context

Astakhova's three-set win over Magda Linette in Seoul was the first main-draw victory of her WTA career and she saved two match points to get it. It matters here because it is the clearest evidence of what she can do against a solid tour-level ball-striker, and Inglis at No. 140 is only 60 places above the No. 80 opponent Astakhova beat. The limitation is that before that week she had no WTA main-draw wins at all, so her tour-level level rests on one event rather than on a season of results.
- 24-year-old Darya Astakhova clinches her first career WTA250 main draw win, saving two match points to stun 7th seed Magda Linette 3-6, 6-1, 7-6 in Seoul, and was ranked 545th exactly last year
- Biggest career win and a first tour-level main draw victory for qualifier Darya Astakhova
- Every main-draw win of her career at WTA 250 level or above has come this same week; she had none before Seoul
- Stored match record: Astakhova d. Linette 3-6 6-1 7-6(2),
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 19:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Astakhova brings a heavy block of matches into this fixture: qualifying and two main-draw rounds in Seoul, travel to Beijing, a straight-set qualifying win on 28 September, then another match the next day. Inglis arrives with almost no competitive tennis behind her, a five-week gap between her 25 August US Open qualifying defeat and her Beijing opener. The contrast is the clearest structural difference between two players ranked 47 places apart, since accumulated play and travel affect recovery while a long layoff affects rhythm. Neither pattern is documented as a problem, though: Astakhova won her Beijing opener 6-2 6-1 and Inglis took hers in straight sets.
- Qualifier Darya Astakhova lost 6-2 3-6 6-1 to Alina Korneeva in the Seoul second round, her fourth match in five days in Seoul
- Seoul results: Astakhova won qualifying matches on 19 and 20 September and beat Linette on 21 September before the exit
- Storm Hunter came through US Open qualifying, beating Maddison Inglis 6-3 6-0 in the first round
- Stored match record: Inglis's only completed singles match between 25 August and 28 September 2026 was the Beijing qualifying opener on 28 September
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 19:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Astakhova has won the second set in nine of her 12 completed hard-court matches and the opening set in eight of the same 12, with second sets the higher-scoring of the two at 10.25 games on average.
This is the stretch of the match where the recent records diverge most: Inglis has won four of eight second sets in her own hard-court sample, while Astakhova has taken three quarters of hers and gone to four second-set tiebreaks. The 12-match group counts completed matches only and excludes three retirements, so it is a short, clean sample rather than a season-long rate, and her first sets at 8-4 have been closer.
- Astakhova set 2: 9 wins, 3 losses across 12 completed hard-court matches, 25 August to 28 September 2026
- Second sets average 5.92 games won and 4.33 lost; four of the 12 second sets went to a tiebreak
- Three retirements excluded from the 12-match sample; all included matches are completed
This is the best result in Inglis's recent record and the only deep run she has made in 2026: five matches on North American hard courts in late July and early August, ending in a final defeat to a fellow Australian. It is relevant because it shows the level she can reach on the surface used in Beijing, and because she has played almost nothing since. The caveat is that it came eight weeks ago and was followed by the heavy US Open qualifying defeat, so it describes her ceiling rather than her current form.
- Mai Hontama's best recent week came in Vancouver, where she won three matches before Maddison Inglis beat her 6-3 6-4 in the semi-finals
- Stored match record: Inglis beat Hontama 6-3 6-4 on 31 July 2026 and lost 7-6(5) 6-3 to Taylah Preston on 1 August 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 19:41 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Astakhova has the stronger recent hard-court record and has beaten a top-80 opponent, and her second sets in particular have been heavy scoring and mostly won.
- 9-3 in 12 completed hard-court matches, six of them containing a tiebreak
- Won set 2 in 9 of those 12 matches at an average of 10.25 games
- Beats Linette (No. 80) in Seoul; loses in three sets to Korneeva (No. 69)
- Five singles matches since 19 September, three of them three-setters
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDarya AstakhovaEstimated chance53%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Astakhova is competitive in nearly all of her recent matches, so losing by four games or more looks relatively unlikely.
- Astakhova wins 9 of 12 completed hard-court matches
- Her three defeats include margins of -6 and -3 games
- Her own winning margins are mainly +4 or more
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDarya Astakhova +3.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Astakhova only needs to avoid a heavy defeat, and her matches are typically tight with several 6-4 and 7-5 style sets.
- Astakhova's completed matches average 22.9 total games, indicating close scorelines
- Set 2 average is 5.92 games won against 4.33 lost
- Inglis's average hard-court match margin is +1.0 game per match
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDarya Astakhova +2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets tend to be decided before ten games for both players, usually with a single break of serve.
- Inglis's first sets average 9.1 games in total
- Astakhova's first sets average 9.0 games in total
- Both players have just one first-set tiebreak in the tracked sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Astakhova's second sets regularly run past ten games and Inglis's are close to that mark, so the line sits near the middle.
- Astakhova's second sets average 10.25 total games
- Inglis's second sets average 9.25 total games
- Four of Astakhova's twelve matches had a second-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Most of Inglis's completed matches have been decided without a third set, which keeps the game count low.
- Inglis averages 19.5 total games in hard-court matches
- Four of her eight hard-court matches were two-set wins or losses with wide margins
- Astakhova's average is 22.9 games, skewed by five three-set matches
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both players' recent records, with only a minority of matches reaching a third set.
- 14 of the 20 combined completed hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Inglis has won four and lost three straight-set matches on this surface
- Astakhova's straight-set wins number six out of twelve
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Astakhova's second sets are her strongest stretch, won in three quarters of her recent hard-court matches.
- Won the second set in 9 of 12 completed hard-court matches
- Averages 5.92 games won and 4.33 lost in second sets
- Four second-set tiebreaks in those 12 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDarya AstakhovaEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Astakhova has been the more reliable fast starter on hard courts, taking the first set in two thirds of her matches.
- Won the opening set in 8 of 12 completed hard-court matches
- First sets average 4.83 games won against 4.17 lost
- Only one first-set tiebreak in those 12 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDarya AstakhovaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches are decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks, especially Inglis's, which are often one-sided.
- Inglis played two of eight hard-court matches with a tiebreak
- Fourteen of the 20 combined hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Astakhova's tiebreak count is six of twelve, the higher of the two
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Darya Astakhova: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Darya Astakhova matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Darya Astakhova4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

15 Jul·WTA Rome

#233Darya Astakhova1-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsDarya Astakhova to win·58%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#233Darya Astakhova1-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

Darya Astakhova to win

58%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Missed

16 Jun·WTA Brescia

#240Darya Astakhova2-1#325Noemi Basiletti

BetBugsDarya Astakhova to win·65%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#240Darya Astakhova2-1#325Noemi Basiletti

Darya Astakhova to win

65%probability

Darya Astakhova won

Matched

3 Jun·WTA Foggia

#277Darya Astakhova2-1#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsDarya Astakhova to win·62%

Matched

3 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#277Darya Astakhova2-1#138Lisa Pigato

Darya Astakhova to win

62%probability

Darya Astakhova won

Matched

1 Jun·WTA Foggia

#233Xinyu Gao0-2#277Darya Astakhova

BetBugsDarya Astakhova to win·58%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#233Xinyu Gao0-2#277Darya Astakhova

Darya Astakhova to win

58%probability

Darya Astakhova won

Matched

Previous match context available

Maddison Inglis

7W 8L

6-1 7-5#271Xinxin Yao

6-3 6-0#182Storm Hunter

7-6(5) 6-3#91Taylah Preston

6-3 6-4#177Mai Hontama

6-4 6-7(9) 6-3#106Moyuka Uchijima

6-1 6-3#217Greetje Minnen

6-3 6-3#159Sofia Costoulas

6-3 3-6 6-4#132Lucia Bronzetti

6-4 5-7 6-2#16Sorana Cirstea

6-3 2-6 6-2#240Hanyu Guo

5-7 6-4 6-4#70Alycia Parks

6-2 6-3#219Celine Naef

6-1 7-5#171Robin Montgomery

6-2 6-2#110Anastasia Zakharova

6-3 6-0#327Ena Koike

Darya Astakhova

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#900Desirae Krawczyk

6-2 3-6 6-1#69Alina Korneeva 3-6 6-1 7-6(2)#80Magda Linette 6-4 6-4#163Alexandra Shubladze 6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#263Haruka Kaji

5-2 ret.#291Daria Khomutsianskaya

6-1 4-2 ret.#296Viktoria Morvayova

7-6(5) 7-5#542Jiayi Wang

6-3 6-2#143Joanna Garland

6-3 6-3#517Patcharin Cheapchadej

1-6 7-6(6) 6-1#231Han Shi

6-4 6-3#355Miho Kuramochi

6-1 7-6(5)#299Yuki Naito

4-6 7-6(0) 6-3#131Marina Bassols Ribera

7-5 3-0 ret.#345Rada Zolotareva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MIMaddison InglisInglis

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Darya AstakhovaAstakhovaDA

Darya Astakhova carries the stronger recent form — Maddison Inglis's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1560.2%+9.6pp69.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1566.4%+7.3pp59.1%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1545.0%+1.6pp43.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.1+1.20.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.80.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1540.0%+9.5pp49.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1545.6%+8.6pp54.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1547.9%+12.2pp60.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.6%+3.3pp51.9%

Serve · 3–2

60.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+9.6pp69.8%

66.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.3pp59.1%

45.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp43.4%

2.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.20.9

3.8Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

40.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+9.5pp49.5%

Pressure · 0–2

45.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+8.6pp54.2%

47.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+12.2pp60.1%

Points · 0–1

48.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp51.9%