Tomas Martin Etcheverry #30Argentina11 – 2Stefanos Tsitsipas #44Greece2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35

The read

Tsitsipas has won nine of his last thirteen hard-court matches and came through Tokyo qualifying without dropping a set, while Etcheverry has not won a set in his recent hard-court best-of-three matches.

• Tsitsipas is 9-4 on hard courts in the tracked last-15 window
• In nine completed hard best-of-three matches he won six 2-0 and lost three 0-2
• Etcheverry has lost all four of his hard best-of-three matches 0-2, averaging 3.0 games in set one
• Tsitsipas won both Tokyo qualifying matches in straight sets (7-5 6-2, 6-4 6-3)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Tsitsipas has a positive games record on hard while Etcheverry has been outscored, and Etcheverry's recent best-of-three losses came by several games.

• Tsitsipas's hard-court game record in the window is 182-159 (+23 over 13 matches)
• Etcheverry's hard-court game record is 98-101 (-3 over 8 matches)
• Etcheverry's hard best-of-three losses include margins of -7 against Jacquet and -4 against Atmane

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas gives away points with errors, so a margin of five games or more is not the most likely shape.

• Etcheverry averages 3.0 games in set one and 3.75 in set two across four hard best-of-three matches
• Tsitsipas's hard matches average 21.6 total games
• Tsitsipas averaged 38 unforced errors per match in his four tracked hard matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas's opening sets on hard usually run past nine games, so a tight first set is slightly more likely.

• Set one averages 10.6 games in Tsitsipas's nine hard best-of-three matches
• It averages 9.0 games in Etcheverry's four
• Two of Tsitsipas's nine first sets went to a tiebreak

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas's hard matches tend to run past twenty games, and his serve-and-error game often stretches sets.

• Tsitsipas's nine hard best-of-three matches average 21.6 total games
• Etcheverry's four average 19.0
• Four of Tsitsipas's nine hard best-of-three matches contained a tiebreak

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Tsitsipas has been the stronger player in second sets on hard and Etcheverry has faded there.

• Tsitsipas won set two in six of nine hard best-of-three matches, averaging 6.0 games for and 5.0 against
• Etcheverry lost set two in all four, averaging 3.75 games for and 6.25 against
• Tsitsipas has not dropped a set in Tokyo this week

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Breaks have been common enough in both players' recent hard matches that a tiebreak is not needed.

• Tsitsipas's four hard matches with a tiebreak came in nine attempts
• Etcheverry has one tiebreak in four hard best-of-three matches
• Etcheverry has been broken regularly, saving 55.3% of break points on hard

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tsitsipas serves big and Etcheverry hits his spots, so the two combined sit right around the line.

• Tsitsipas averages 8.5 aces per hard-court match (111 in 13)
• Etcheverry averages 6.0 aces per hard match (48 in 8)
• The two averages sum to 14.5

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double-fault rate sits on the line, with Etcheverry's low rate balancing Tsitsipas's higher one.

• Tsitsipas averages 3.5 double faults per hard match (45 in 13)
• Etcheverry averages 2.0 per hard match (16 in 8)
• The two averages sum to 5.5