FranceMouilleron-Le-Captif - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Joel Schwaerzler #185Austria2Harry Wendelken #178United Kingdom0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Thu 1 Oct 2026, 09:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarry Wendelken · 7 places

Joel Josef Schwaerzler

Austria

Schwaerzler, 20, is the left-hander in this matchup. Available 2026 profile records show No. 150 as his best ranking.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #150 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Harry Wendelken

United Kingdom

A 178 cm British right-hander, Wendelken reached a career-high No. 201 on 3 August 2026. His 2026 season included his ATP and Wimbledon main-draw debuts.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: #201 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 19:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players separated by seven ranking places meet in the second round indoors at Mouilleron-le-Captif, with Schwaerzler's first-set habit up against Wendelken's stronger second sets.

Schwaerzler is the slightly more likely winner on the hard-court record. The quoted prices don't help: 1.90 on Schwaerzler needs more than his record justifies, and 1.80 on Wendelken asks even more. No price here is worth taking.

Context

Wendelken was added to the Great Britain squad when Cameron Norrie withdrew, and won his first Davis Cup match in a dead rubber against 18-year-old Angel Veliz as the tie finished 4-0. It was his first senior team appearance and it sits directly before this week: he lost his opening match at Saint-Tropez on 22 September, then won here on 29 September. A dead rubber played with the tie already decided, against a teenage opponent, is thin evidence of current match sharpness, so the milestone says more about his standing in the British squad than about how he will perform in this fixture.
- Wendelken replaced Cameron Norrie in the Great Britain squad .
- Wendelken made his Davis Cup debut against Angel Veliz.
- The debut was a dead rubber played with the tie already decided.
- Great Britain completed a 4-0 win and reached the Davis Cup Finals.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:29 · Europe/Bucharest
Wendelken has been the stronger player after the opening set, not in it.
In this 11-match sample his second-set record is the best part of his hard-court game, and it is why a slow start need not decide this match. Joel Schwaerzler, by contrast, has won 7 of 12 first sets on the surface, so the opening set is where the two profiles diverge most.
- Wendelken won 4 of 11 first sets and 7 of 11 second sets in completed hard-court best-of-three matches between 29 July and 29 September 2026.
- His first sets averaged 4.45 games won and 5.27 lost; his second sets averaged 5.00 won and 4.45 lost.
- The sample is 11 matches with one retirement excluded, and only 2 of those 11 matches featured a tiebreak.
Both men closed out their opening matches in straight sets, and they meet in the second round with Wendelken seeded eighth and ranked seven places higher, at No. 178 to Schwaerzler's No. 185. Schwaerzler's 6-3, 7-5 was the tighter of the two wins, while Wendelken conceded only three games. The ranking and seeding gap is real but narrow, and both opening wins came against opponents who had already come through qualifying, so the scorelines are a modest guide to current form rather than a clear separation between the two.
- Schwaerzler won his first-round match 6-3, 7-5 .
- Wendelken won his first-round match 6-3, 6-1 .
- Wendelken is the eighth seed in the draw.
- Both first-round opponents, Barroso Campos and Romano, had come through qualifying.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:29 · Europe/BucharestTennisSharptennissharp.com · 29 Sep 2026Flashscorewww.flashscore.com · 29 Sep 2026
Schwaerzler's most recent defeat before this event came at the Plovdiv Challenger, where he took the opening set 6-2 from Maxime Chazal, then lost 4-6, 6-7(9) after Chazal saved three match points. He has since won his opening match here in straight sets, so the collapse has not carried into this week. It is a single match on clay, a different surface from this indoor hard court, which limits how far the episode can be read into this fixture.
- Schwaerzler lost to Maxime Chazal at the Plovdiv Challenger .
- Schwaerzler took the opening set 6-2 before losing the next two sets.
- Chazal saved three match points in the deciding tie-break.
- Schwaerzler has since won his first-round match at Mouilleron-le-Captif.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 19:29 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Joel Schwaerzler

1.90fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 52.6%

−0.6ppshort

Schwaerzler's slightly better hard-court record and stronger first-set habit give him a small advantage, though the ranking gap is minimal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Schwaerzler's slightly better hard-court record and stronger first-set habit give him a small advantage, though the ranking gap is minimal.
- Schwaerzler is 8-4 on hard in his last 12 completed matches; Wendelken is 7-5 in his last 12.
- Schwaerzler has won the first set in 7 of 12 hard best-of-three matches; Wendelken in 4 of 11.
- Schwaerzler's hard-court total points won is 49.7% across 11 matches with serve metrics.
- Rankings are close: Schwaerzler 185, Wendelken 178, and Wendelken is the eighth seed.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJoel SchwaerzlerEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schwaerzler's second sets run longer than 9.5 games on average, and both have tiebreak history in set two.
- Schwaerzler's hard second sets average 10.33 total games.
- Wendelken's hard second sets average 9.45 total games.
- Schwaerzler has 3 second-set tiebreaks in 12; Wendelken has 2 in 11.
- Schwaerzler's second-set games average is 5.42 won to 4.92 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined games average sits right at the line, and the high rate of three-set matches makes over slightly more likely.
- Combined hard-court total games average is about 25.4: Schwaerzler 25.25, Wendelken 25.55.
- Schwaerzler's hard best-of-three matches have gone to three sets in 6 of 12; Wendelken's in 7 of 11.
- Both players won their first-round matches here in straight sets.
- The line is 25.5, just above their combined average.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set games average sits just above 9.5 for both players, with enough tiebreaks to make over slightly more likely.
- Schwaerzler's hard first sets average 9.75 total games.
- Wendelken's hard first sets average 9.73 total games.
- Schwaerzler has 3 first-set tiebreaks in 12; Wendelken has 1 in 11.
- Schwaerzler's first-round first set was 6-3, nine games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have needed a deciding set in more than half of their recent hard-court matches.
- Schwaerzler's hard best-of-three scorelines include 4 wins in three sets and 2 losses in three sets from 12.
- Wendelken's include 5 wins in three sets and 2 losses in three sets from 11.
- Combined three-set rate is about 57%.
- Both players won their first-round matches here in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schwaerzler starts sets better than Wendelken on this surface and opened his tournament with a first-set win.
- Schwaerzler has won the first set in 7 of 12 hard best-of-three matches.
- Wendelken has won the first set in only 4 of 11 hard best-of-three matches.
- Schwaerzler won the opening set in his first-round match 6-3.
- Schwaerzler's hard first sets average 4.75 games won to 5.00 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJoel SchwaerzlerEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken's second-set numbers are the best part of his hard-court record, and he has often recovered after losing the first set.
- Wendelken has won 7 of 11 hard-court second sets.
- Schwaerzler has won 7 of 12 second sets.
- Wendelken's second-set games average is 5.00 won to 4.45 lost.
- Schwaerzler's second-set games average is 5.42 won to 4.92 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostHarry WendelkenEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wendelken rarely reaches tiebreaks, and both first-round wins here were completed without one.
- Wendelken has only 2 tiebreak matches in 11 hard best-of-three matches.
- Schwaerzler has 6 in 12, but his first-round match here had none.
- Both players won their opening match at this event without a tiebreak.
- Schwaerzler's hard first sets average 9.75 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Joel Schwaerzler

9W 6L

6-3 7-5#705Alberto Barroso Campos

2-6 6-4 7-6(9)#420Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-2#536Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#244Max Basing

3-6 6-4 6-1#164Andrea Guerrieri

2-6 6-4 6-4#122Gustavo Heide

6-2 7-5#442Kenta Miyoshi

6-3 6-7(5) 7-5#206Andres Andrade

7-6(4) 6-1#164Andrea Guerrieri

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#367Mathys Erhard

7-6(4) 6-4#233Ilya Ivashka

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(4)#423Aziz Dougaz

6-3 6-1—Jiri Cizek

6-2 6-3#254Martin Krumich

6-3 6-4#213Maxim Mrva

Harry Wendelken

8W 7L

6-3 6-1#307Filippo Romano

6-2 6-4#212David Jorda Sanchis

6-2 6-3—Angel Veliz

6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5#19Luciano Darderi

6-7(3) 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#141Vilius Gaubas

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#226Remy Bertola

6-4 3-6 6-3#170Stefano Travaglia

5-7 6-2 7-5#125Lloyd Harris

2-6 6-4 6-1#294Stefan Kozlov

3-6 6-3 6-1#148Borna Gojo

6-4 6-2#149Michael Mmoh

6-2 2-6 7-5#581Keegan Rice

6-5 ret.#268Murphy Cassone

4-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#105Valentin Royer

7-5 6-3#112Aleksandar Vukic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoel SchwaerzlerSchwaerzler

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Harry WendelkenWendelkenHW

Joel Schwaerzler carries the stronger recent form — Harry Wendelken's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1559.5%+8.2pp51.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1572.2%+3.4pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1550.3%—49.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/155.4+0.94.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.60.4 fewer4.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1535.8%+4.2pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1538.3%+1.2pp39.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1559.2%+4.2pp55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1549.7%—49.4%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

59.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+8.2pp51.3%

72.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+3.4pp68.8%

50.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15—49.6%

5.4Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.94.5

3.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/150.4 fewer4.0

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+4.2pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

38.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+1.2pp39.5%

59.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+4.2pp55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—49.4%