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Predictions graded

Maxime Chazal #433France2Joel Schwaerzler #179Austria1

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 7-6Tue 22 Sept 2026, 10:47 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoel Josef Schwaerzler · 254 places

Maxime Chazal

France

Ranked No. 433, listed at 175 cm and playing right-handed with a one-handed backhand. Reliable detail beyond ranking, height and handedness was thin, so recent form is the main player context.

Current ranking: #433
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Joel Josef Schwaerzler

Austria

Ranked No. 179, listed at 188 cm and playing left-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable detail beyond ranking, height and handedness was thin, so recent form is the main player context.

Current ranking: #179
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:49 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension is a 433rd-ranked clay specialist against a 179th-ranked left-hander with almost no clay form in this window.

Chazal has won 11 of 14 clay matches since August and took the second set in all 14; Schwaerzler's clay sample is four matches and a 1-3 record. Chazal winning is the likely result, and at 3.2 for the match and 2.6 for either of the first two sets, all three Chazal prices carry value; the 1.3 and 1.44 quotes for Schwaerzler do not.

Context

Chazal's second-set record is the most one-sided part of his recent clay form, built across 14 matches in a six-week window.
Fourteen matches is a modest sample and the streak says nothing about how this particular first round plays out, but it is a consistent set-level pattern across the available clay record rather than one hot week.
- Clay set 2: 14 wins, 0 losses from 14 matches, Aug 1 - Sep 15, 2026
- Clay set 2 games: 6.29 won against 3.50 lost per match
- Three tiebreaks in set 2 across those 14 matches
The 179th-ranked left-hander has barely been on clay since July, so this record is a thin guide to his level in Plovdiv.
Four matches more than six weeks before this first round leave the surface read genuinely uncertain, and the 27.9% of return points won on clay is the weakest number in his record; the sample is too small to treat as a firm trend either way.
- Clay record: 1 win, 3 losses from 4 matches, Jul 13 - Jul 29, 2026
- Clay games won 42.9% (33 of 77) and return points won 27.9% (60 of 215)
- Clay set averages: 4.00 games won against 5.25 lost in set 1, 4.25 against 5.75 in set 2
That result came on hard court rather than clay and is a single match, so it reads as a form flag rather than a surface verdict.
It is nonetheless the most recent completed evidence available after his clay run ends in July, and it came against a player ranked well below him, though one match is not a trend.
- Sep 3, 2026: lost 2-6, 2-6 to Luca Potenza (ranked 485) in a hard-court match
- Games: 4 won, 12 lost; no retirement, completed in straight sets

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Chazal has won 11 of 14 clay matches with clearly better serving, returning and break-point numbers on the surface, while Schwaerzler's clay record in the same period is 1-3.
- Clay record in this window: 11 wins, 3 losses from 14 matches
- Clay metrics: 58.3% of games won (179/307), 54.3% total points won, 43.1% return points won
- Schwaerzler clay: 1 win, 3 losses, 42.9% of games won (33/77), 27.9% return points won (60/215)
- Rankings: Chazal 433, Schwaerzler 179
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaxime ChazalEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets for both players have averaged just over nine games, with only two first-set tiebreaks in Chazal's fourteen clay matches.
- Chazal clay set 1: 5.21 games won vs 4.07 lost (9.3 total average)
- Schwaerzler clay set 1: 4.00 games won vs 5.25 lost (9.25 total average)
- Chazal clay set 1 tiebreaks: 2 of 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chazal's clay matches have averaged just under 22 games, and his three-set defeats were long matches, which keeps the line close to even.
- Chazal clay average match total: 21.9 games
- Schwaerzler clay average match total: 19.3 games
- Chazal clay set averages: 9.3 games in set 1, 9.8 in set 2
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches have mostly finished in two sets, with Chazal winning ten of his fourteen in straight sets.
- Chazal clay: 10 of 14 matches finished in two sets
- Schwaerzler clay: 4 of 4 matches finished in two sets
- Clay scorelines for Chazal: 2-0 x10, 2-1 x1, 1-2 x3
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Chazal has won the second set in every one of his 14 tracked clay matches, and Schwaerzler has lost three of four second sets on the surface.
- Clay set 2: 14 wins, 0 losses across 14 matches
- Clay set 2 games: 6.29 won vs 3.50 lost
- Schwaerzler clay set 2: 1 win, 3 losses, 4.25 games won vs 5.75 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMaxime ChazalEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Chazal has taken the opening set in 10 of his 14 clay matches and starts sets with a positive games margin, while Schwaerzler has lost three of four clay openers.
- Clay set 1: 10 wins, 4 losses over 14 matches
- Clay set 1 games: 5.21 won vs 4.07 lost on average
- Schwaerzler clay set 1: 1 win, 3 losses, 4.00 games won vs 5.25 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaxime ChazalEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay sets usually finish with a break rather than at 6-6, so most tracked matches had no tiebreak.
- Chazal clay: 8 of 14 matches had no tiebreak
- Schwaerzler clay: 3 of 4 matches had no tiebreak
- Chazal clay set 1 tiebreaks: 2 in 14 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay ace rates combine to roughly six per match, below the line even allowing for a possible third set.
- Chazal clay: 2.7 aces per match (38/14)
- Schwaerzler clay: 3.3 aces per match (13/4)
- Combined clay rate of about 6.0 against a 7.5 line
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' clay double-fault rates add up to under four per match, below the line.
- Chazal clay: 1.4 double faults per match (20/14)
- Schwaerzler clay: 2.5 per match (10/4)
- Combined clay rate of about 3.9 against a 4.5 line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance56%

Maxime Chazal

11W 4L

6-4 1-6 6-3#216Alex Barrena

6-4 6-4#89Titouan Droguet

6-2 6-4#850Kenny de Schepper

6-1 6-2—Liam Branger

6-3 7-5—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

6-4 6-2#893Daniel Bagnolini

6-3 6-3—Filip Malis

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#802Michael Agwi

6-3 6-3—Kaspar Mathes

6-2 6-0—Vincent Dullinger

6-3 7-6(2)—David Fix

7-6(10) 6-4#688Ziga Sesko

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3—Christian Djonov

7-6(5) 6-4—Tim Hammes

6-1 6-7(2) 6-3#576Pierre Delage

Joel Schwaerzler

8W 7L

6-2 6-2#485Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#219Max Basing

3-6 6-4 6-1#167Andrea Guerrieri

2-6 6-4 6-4#123Gustavo Heide

6-2 7-5#452Kenta Miyoshi

6-3 6-7(5) 7-5#203Andres Andrade

7-6(4) 6-1#167Andrea Guerrieri

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4#346Mathys Erhard

7-6(4) 6-4#230Ilya Ivashka

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(4)#419Aziz Dougaz

6-3 6-1—Jiri Cizek

6-2 6-3#256Martin Krumich

6-3 6-4#209Maxim Mrva

6-4 6-2#142Jurij Rodionov

6-4 7-6(4)#86Lorenzo Sonego

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MCMaxime ChazalChazal

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Joel SchwaerzlerSchwaerzlerJS

Maxime Chazal carries the stronger recent form — Joel Schwaerzler's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In70.4%+11.3pp59.1%

1st Serve Won71.0%+1.7pp72.7%

2nd Serve Won54.6%+3.3pp51.3%

Aces / Match2.8+2.25.0

Double Faults / Match1.51.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.7%+8.6pp34.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.1%+7.7pp34.4%

Break Pts Saved59.5%+1.6pp57.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.8%+4.7pp49.1%

Serve · 3–2

70.4%1st Serve In+11.3pp59.1%

71.0%1st Serve Won+1.7pp72.7%

54.6%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp51.3%

2.8Aces / Match+2.25.0

1.5Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

42.7%Return Pts Won+8.6pp34.1%

Pressure · 2–0

42.1%Break Pts Converted+7.7pp34.4%

59.5%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp57.9%

Points · 1–0

53.8%Total Pts Won+4.7pp49.1%