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Predictions graded

Samuel Heredia #653Colombia0Joao Eduardo Schiessl #512Brazil2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Wed 30 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoao Eduardo Schiessl · 141 places

Samuel Heredia

Colombia

Reliable public profile information was limited in the specified searches. Use the structured form and event data as the primary context.

Current ranking: #653
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

Brazil

Brazilian left-hander ranked No. 512 who entered the Curitiba main draw on a wildcard. He was a semifinalist at this event in 2025 and spent the weeks before it at ITF M15 level in Brazil.

Current ranking: #512
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 00:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Rain pushed this Curitiba first-round match to Wednesday, where qualifier Samuel Heredia meets the local wildcard João Eduardo Schiessl on clay.

Heredia's clay record and first serve make him the player more likely to advance, and the prices agree: he is 2.3 to win the match and 2.2 to take either of the first two sets. Schiessl at 1.55 to win does not hold up.

Context

Heredia reached the main draw with three-set wins on 27 and, six sets of qualifying, and the run is his sixth Challenger appearance of 2026. That leaves him with live clay match play behind him and a heavier load than a direct entrant, and the rain that cancelled the 29 September session pushed this match back a day. At No. 655 he is the lower-ranked player in the match, having taken the qualifying route into a draw he did not enter directly.
- Heredia beat Leonardo Storck Franca 3-6 6-3 6-1 in the opening qualifying round .
- Heredia then beat Juan Sebastián Osorio, ranked No. 704, 7-6(5) 5-7 6-4 in the final qualifying round to reach the main draw.
- The result was reported as Heredia's sixth appearance of the 2026 season.
- Heredia, ranked No. 655, was seeded fifth in the qualifying draw and Osorio tenth.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Heredia is a 655th-ranked qualifier whose nine-match clay sample covers 15 June to 28 September 2026.
Heredia's clay matches have run long, while Schiessl's 11 tracked clay matches average 20.1 games and nine of them ended in straight sets, so the two recent clay patterns pull in opposite directions. Nine matches is a small sample for Heredia, and a habit of deciding sets is not a promise that this one goes the distance.
- Across nine clay matches between 15 June and 28 September 2026, Heredia averaged 25.8 total games per match.
- Five of those nine clay matches went to a deciding set (four 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, three 1-2 losses).
- Four of the nine contained a tiebreak.
It is his home tournament: he is one of eight Brazilians in the main draw and he enters on a wildcard rather than on ranking or through qualifying. Curitiba is also where he owns his strongest recent result, a semifinal run in 2025, which is the main reason to track how he handles this level. That semifinal is twelve months old, and his No. 512 ranking is the more current measure against a 75-level field.
- Schiessl was identified as a 2025 Curitiba semifinalist when the second wildcard of the 2026 edition was confirmed, after the first went to Guto Miguel.
- Eight Brazilians were already in the 2026 main draw: Gustavo Heide, Thiago Wild, João Lucas Reis, Matheus Pucinelli, Felipe Meligeni, Pedro Boscardin, Guto Miguel and Schiessl.
- The completed qualifying draw placed qualifier Heredia against wildcard Schiessl in the first round.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest
The match lost its scheduled day: rain cancelled the round in Curitiba after only part of the programme was completed, and the remaining debuts, this one included, went to Wednesday. Heredia and Schiessl therefore start a day later than planned, and the winner goes into the second round with a smaller gap than players who finished their openers earlier in the week. The delay applies equally to both and explains the timing of the fixture rather than the matchup.
- The round at the Curitiba Challenger 75 was cancelled because of rain, after seven Brazilians had already won first-round matches.
- The debuts of Guto Miguel, João Schiessl, Pedro Sakamoto and Eduardo Ribeiro were moved to Wednesday.
- The revised order of play had set a provisional 19:00 start, with the Heredia–Schiessl match placed on the first available court among courts 1, 2 and Pedro Amadeu.
- The doubles match between Milani/Scheidt and Arias/Carou was cancelled.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Heredia has the better clay results and the stronger first serve, and he has already won twice on these courts in qualifying.
- Heredia is 6-3 in 9 tracked clay matches; Schiessl is 5-6 in 11
- Heredia wins 74.1% of first-serve points on clay vs Schiessl's 61.3%
- Heredia's clay total-points share is 50.4% against Schiessl's 49.2%
- Heredia has two three-set qualifying wins at this Curitiba event this week
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSamuel HerediaEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Heredia's opening sets on clay usually pass ten games and often need a tiebreak.
- Heredia's clay set 1 averages 10.4 total games
- Schiessl's clay set 1 averages 9.5 total games
- 3 of Heredia's 9 clay opening sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Heredia's clay matches regularly run past 22 games and his qualifying week produced two long three-setters.
- Heredia's 9 clay matches average 25.8 total games
- Schiessl's 11 clay matches average 20.1 total games
- Heredia's clay set 1 and set 2 average 10.4 and 10.7 games
- 7 of the 20 combined clay matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Heredia's second sets on clay run long enough to clear the line, though Schiessl's do not.
- Heredia's clay set 2 averages 10.7 total games
- Schiessl's clay set 2 averages 9.0 total games
- Heredia has played 2 tiebreaks in 9 clay second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schiessl's clay matches usually resolve in two sets and the combined sample leans the same way.
- 9 of Schiessl's 11 clay matches ended in straight sets
- Heredia has finished 2-0 in four of his nine clay matches
- Schiessl's clay total-sets average is 2.18
- Schiessl's most recent clay match ended 3-6 1-6
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Heredia has started clay matches better than Schiessl and holds a small game edge in opening sets.
- Heredia won set 1 in 6 of 9 clay matches
- Heredia's clay set 1 game split is 5.6 won to 4.9 lost
- Schiessl won set 1 in 5 of 11 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSamuel HerediaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Heredia's second sets on clay are his strongest phase, while Schiessl is only around even there.
- Heredia won set 2 in 7 of 9 clay matches
- Schiessl won set 2 in 5 of 11 clay matches
- Heredia's clay set 2 split is 5.8 games won to 4.9 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSamuel HerediaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schiessl's clay matches are usually settled without reaching 6-6 in a set.
- Only 2 of Schiessl's 11 clay matches contained a tiebreak
- Schiessl's clay set 2 has produced no tiebreaks
- Schiessl has lost 0-2 five times in 11 clay matches, often by clear margins
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Heredia's double-fault rate alone nearly reaches the line, and a third set would push the combined count over it.
- Heredia averages 7.0 double faults per clay match
- Schiessl averages 2.1 double faults per clay match
- Heredia served 63 double faults across 9 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schiessl barely serves aces and Heredia's average alone would not clear the line in a two-set match.
- Schiessl averages just 2.0 aces per clay match
- Heredia's clay ace average is 4.1 per match
- Schiessl's first serve lands in 66.5% of the time, limiting free points but not aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance56%

Previous match context available

Samuel Heredia

7W 8L

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#704Juan Sebastian Osorio 3-6 6-3 6-1—Leonardo Storck Franca

6-2 6-4#93Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-4#181Laslo Djere

7-5 6-1#536Luca Potenza

6-1 6-4#388Massimo Giunta

6-4 7-6(3)#554John Echeverria

1-6 6-4 6-1#422Izan Almazan Valiente

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-1#885Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 4-6 6-4#270Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-2 6-4#562Ignacio Monzon

6-4 6-4#340Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-4#813Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#321Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 7-6(5)—Leonardo Monferrer

Joao Eduardo Schiessl

8W 7L

6-2 6-1#673Nicolas Zanellato

7-6(7) 6-4—Giovanni Branchetti

6-2 6-3—Eduardo Lage

7-6(11) 6-2#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-2 6-2#854Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto

6-3 6-1—Luiz Felipe Silva

6-2 1-6 6-3—Andre Souza Pinto De Camargo

6-1 6-3—Franco Marini

6-4 5-7 6-4#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 4-6 6-1—Pedro Albuquerque Dietrich

6-2 6-3#708Nicolas Villalon

6-4 7-5#801Benjamin Torrealba

6-2 6-1#463Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 6-1#259Franco Roncadelli

6-3 6-2#695Ryan Dickerson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SHSamuel HerediaHeredia

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Joao Eduardo SchiesslSchiesslJS

Joao Eduardo Schiessl carries the stronger recent form — Samuel Heredia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1556.8%+11.7pp68.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1571.2%+8.6pp62.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1547.0%+0.8pp46.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.1+2.02.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/155.43.7 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1536.9%+5.0pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1541.4%+7.1pp48.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1563.6%+5.8pp57.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1548.8%+1.2pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

56.8%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+11.7pp68.5%

71.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.6pp62.6%

47.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp46.2%

4.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.02.1

5.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.7 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.0pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

41.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.1pp48.5%

63.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.8pp57.8%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.2pp50.0%