BrazilCuritiba - BrazilFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Samuel Heredia #647Colombia2Leonardo Storck FrancaBrazil1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 13:16 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Samuel Heredia

Colombia

Reliable public profile information was limited in the specified searches. Use the structured form and event data as the primary context.

Current ranking: #647
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Leonardo Storck Franca

Brazil

A Brazilian junior born in 2009 who competes at the top of the boys' game, with a place in the US Open boys' singles draw and a top seed at the J300 in Repentigny. Enters Curitiba qualifying on a wild card and holds no ATP singles ranking.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 14:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Samuel Heredia, the No.

647 Colombian, meets 17-year-old Brazilian wild card Leonardo Storck França in a Curitiba Challenger 75 qualifying first round on clay. Heredia is the likelier winner, and three quoted prices hold up: Heredia to win the second set at 1.6, Heredia to win 2-0 in sets at 2.3, and Heredia to win the match at 1.55. Heredia to win the first set at 1.6 and the match to finish in straight sets at 1.5 do not.

Context

A wild card places an unranked 17-year-old directly into a Challenger qualifying draw, where his first opponent is a ranked professional. That entry route is the clearest structural difference between the two players, since it removes the ranking pathway that Heredia used to reach No. 647. It reflects his junior standing rather than a senior level, which the next section of evidence sets out.
- Storck França is listed with a wild card entry in the Curitiba qualifying event.
- Heredia is listed as world No. 647.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:39 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 27 Sep 2026
The 17-year-old Brazilian wild card begins clay matches competitively but has not yet carried that level through the middle set.
Across that five-match clay sample he won four of 13 sets (30.8%), and the second-set split is the sharpest part of the record: 0-5, while he took the first set three times. The sample does include a three-set win, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 over Nicolas Baena on 28 July 2026, so the pattern describes his clay sets so far rather than a fixed limit in this qualifying round.
- Storck França's clay set2 record: 0 wins, 5 losses across five tracked matches (September 2025 – July 2026).
- His clay set1 record is 3 wins, 2 losses, with one first-set tiebreak.
- He won 4 of 13 sets (30.8%) across that clay sample.
He took 13 of 21 sets (61.9%) in that sample and won seven of nine second sets, which is where the straight-set pattern comes from. The caveat is timing: the sample ends on 7 July 2026, and the completed matches in his record since then have all been on hard courts, so this is a two-month-old read on clay rather than a description of his current week.
- Heredia's clay scorelines across nine matches (10 June – 7 July 2026): five 2-0 wins, three 1-2 losses, one 0-2 loss.
- He won 13 of 21 sets (61.9%) and seven of nine second sets on clay.
- Three of those nine clay matches included a tiebreak.
Qualifying is single elimination, so this first-round match is the only route into the Curitiba main draw for both players; a win opens a second qualifying round, a loss ends the week. The clay surface is the shared condition that frames the fixture, and it separates the two on surface familiarity: Heredia's recent results have come mostly on hard courts, while Storck França has almost no recent professional clay matches to draw on.
- The fixture is listed as a Curitiba ATP Challenger 75 qualifying first-round singles match on clay, on the main court.
- Heredia is listed at No. 647 and Storck França entered the qualifying event on a wild card.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 14:39 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 27 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Heredia has stronger clay results and serve numbers against more established opposition, making him the more likely winner.
- Heredia is ranked No. 647 and went 5-4 on clay with a 61.9% set win rate (13/21).
- Storck Franca is unranked and has won 1 of 5 clay matches, taking 30.8% of sets (4/13).
- Heredia won 71.7% of first-serve points on clay compared with Storck Franca's 50.5%.
- Heredia saved 61.4% of break points on clay; Storck Franca saved 40.4%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSamuel HerediaEstimated chance67%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The set2 total games average is above 9.5, so the over is slightly more likely.
- Heredia's set2 total games average is 10.33 on clay.
- Storck Franca's set2 total games average is 9.6 on clay.
- Combined average is 10.0 games.
- Storck Franca lost all five second sets on clay, often by several games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Heredia wins more games than he loses on clay, and Storck Franca has been beaten comfortably in several matches.
- Heredia's clay games won are 105 of 204 (51.5%), a net +6 games over nine matches.
- Storck Franca's clay games won are 47 of 119 (39.5%), a net -25 games over five matches.
- Heredia's clay wins are often by multiple games, with five 2-0 scorelines.
- Storck Franca lost by five or more games in three of his four clay losses.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSamuel Heredia -2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The set1 total games average is slightly under the line, making the under a marginal call.
- Heredia's set1 total games average is 9.56 on clay.
- Storck Franca's set1 total games average is 9.2 on clay.
- Combined average is 9.4 games.
- Both players have had first sets decided by a single break.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is close to the line, and straight-set outcomes tend to keep totals lower.
- Heredia's clay total games average is 22.67.
- Storck Franca's clay total games average is 23.8.
- Heredia's five clay wins were all 2-0, often with moderate scorelines.
- Storck Franca lost 0-2 twice in five clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Heredia's second-set record is strong, while Storck Franca has never won a second set on clay.
- Heredia won the second set in 7 of 9 clay matches.
- Storck Franca lost all 5 second sets on clay.
- Heredia's second-serve points won on clay is 47.7%.
- Storck Franca's break points saved on clay is 40.4%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSamuel HerediaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Heredia starts clay matches strongly and has a clear serve advantage in the opening set.
- Heredia won the first set in 6 of 9 clay matches.
- Storck Franca won the first set in 3 of 5 clay matches.
- Heredia's first-serve points won on clay is 71.7%.
- Storck Franca's first-serve points won on clay is 50.5%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSamuel HerediaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Heredia's clay wins have been in straight sets, and Storck Franca often loses in two sets.
- Heredia's five clay wins were all 2-0.
- Storck Franca lost 2-0 in two of five clay matches.
- Heredia won 61.9% of sets on clay.
- Storck Franca won only 30.8% of sets on clay.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Heredia's clay wins have all been in straight sets, and his strong first-serve points suggest he can avoid a third set.
- Heredia's clay scorelines include five 2-0 wins in nine matches.
- His set1 record on clay is 6-3 and set2 record is 7-2.
- Storck Franca has lost 2-0 twice in five clay matches and lost all five second sets.
- Heredia won 71.7% of first-serve points on clay.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostSamuel Heredia 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been relatively uncommon in their clay matches, so a match without one is more likely.
- Heredia's clay matches with a tiebreak: 3 of 9.
- Storck Franca's clay matches with a tiebreak: 1 of 5.
- Heredia's set1 tiebreaks: 2 in 9; set2 tiebreaks: 2 in 9.
- Storck Franca's set1 tiebreaks: 1 in 5; set2 tiebreaks: 0 in 5.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates on clay, and their combined average is above the line.
- Heredia averages 5.7 double faults per clay match (51 in 9).
- Storck Franca averages 3.2 double faults per clay match (16 in 5).
- Combined average is 8.9 double faults per match.
- Heredia's first-serve percentage on clay is 58.2%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Storck Franca's very low ace rate makes the under slightly more likely despite Heredia's serve.
- Heredia averages 3.4 aces per clay match.
- Storck Franca averages 1.0 ace per clay match.
- Combined average is 4.4 aces per match.
- Storck Franca has only 5 aces in 5 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance52%

Samuel Heredia

6W 9L

6-2 6-4#95Jesper De Jong

6-3 6-4#181Laslo Djere

7-5 6-1#538Luca Potenza

6-1 6-4#381Massimo Giunta

6-4 7-6(3)#558John Echeverria

1-6 6-4 6-1#466Izan Almazan Valiente

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-1#884Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 4-6 6-4#251Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-2 6-4#572Ignacio Monzon

6-4 6-4#355Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-4#808Gustavo Ribeiro De Almeida

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#319Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

6-4 7-6(5)—Leonardo Monferrer

6-0 6-3—Juan Borba

6-2 6-3#397Hernan Casanova

Leonardo Storck Franca

1W 4L

6-7(5) 6-2 6-1#420Mateus Alves

6-3 4-6 7-5—Nicolas Baena

6-1 6-2#120Gustavo Heide

6-2 7-5—Rafael De Alba

3-6 6-4 6-0#717Wilson Leite

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SHSamuel HerediaHeredia

Last 15 · 15 vs 5

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Leonardo Storck FrancaFrancaLF

Samuel Heredia carries the stronger recent form — Leonardo Storck Franca's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 5/559.2%+1.5pp57.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 5/569.4%+18.9pp50.5%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 5/547.1%+7.0pp54.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 5/53.6+2.61.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 5/54.61.4 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 5/537.1%+1.5pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 5/542.9%+10.4pp53.3%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 5/561.8%+21.4pp40.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 5/548.6%+3.4pp45.2%

Serve · 3–2

59.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 5/5+1.5pp57.7%

69.4%1st Serve Won14/15 · 5/5+18.9pp50.5%

47.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 5/5+7.0pp54.1%

3.6Aces / Match14/15 · 5/5+2.61.0

4.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 5/51.4 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 5/5+1.5pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

42.9%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 5/5+10.4pp53.3%

61.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 5/5+21.4pp40.4%

Points · 1–0

48.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 5/5+3.4pp45.2%

Samuel Heredia

Leonardo Storck Franca

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Samuel Heredia

Samuel Heredia

Samuel Heredia 2-0

Samuel Heredia

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Samuel Heredia

Leonardo Storck Franca

Stat Battle