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Predictions graded

Cagla Buyukakcay #426Türkiye1Lucrezia Stefanini #147Italy2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 3-6Wed 30 Sept 2026, 18:47 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLucrezia Stefanini · 279 places

Cagla Buyukakcay

Türkiye

Buyukakcay, 36, is the right-hander in this matchup. She reached No. 60 in 2016; no current preferred-surface reference was retained.

Current ranking: #426
Peak ranking: #60 · 2016
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 172 cm

Lucrezia Stefanini

Italy

Italian right-hander born in May 1998. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 99 in August 2023; no current, reliably sourced injury or comeback signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #147
Peak ranking: #99 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 164 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 00:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Buyukakcay, a 36-year-old home wildcard ranked No. 427, took out No.

202 Carole Monnet in a third-set tiebreak; sixth seed Stefanini, No. 125, is the likely winner but has rarely needed three sets. Five quoted prices hold up: Buyukakcay to win at 7, Buyukakcay to take the opening set at 4.25, a deciding set at 3.3, over 20.5 games at 2.4 and Buyukakcay in three sets at 10.

Context

Reaching the second round of the US Open through qualifying is the strongest recent hard-court result on either side of this matchup and sets the baseline for what Stefanini can produce at 125 level. It explains why she starts as the sixth seed against a home wildcard ranked more than 300 places below her. The result is nearly a month old, and her only completed match against a top-210 opponent since, at São Paulo, ended in a straight-sets loss.
- Stefanini qualified for the 2026 US Open main draw and beat Dayana Yastremska in the first round.
- She lost 6-4 6-1 to Jasmine Paolini in the US Open second round .
- She is the sixth seed at the Adana Open.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/BucharestAdana Open match pagewww.tennismajors.com · 29 Sep 2026
This is the result that puts a home wildcard ranked outside the top 400 into the second round, and it came against an opponent more than 200 places higher. It shows Buyukakcay can still last three sets on hard courts, the attribute that matters most against a seeded opponent. One three-set win is not evidence of sustained form, and her recent record also includes a straight-sets loss to a player ranked in the 550s.
- Buyukakcay won 2-6 6-3 7-6(5) against Carole Monnet in the Adana first round on hard court.
- Monnet is ranked No. 202, while Buyukakcay is ranked outside the top 400.
- Buyukakcay entered the main draw as a wildcard.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/BucharestAdana Open match pagewww.lequipe.fr · 29 Sep 2026
Buyukakcay's first-round win drew national and local attention because she is the host city's own player, at 36 and ranked outside the top 400, beating a much higher-ranked opponent in front of a home crowd. That environment is the clearest non-ranking factor favouring her in this match and is why the fixture carries more interest locally than a routine second round at 125 level. Home support on an outdoor court is a modest influence and does not close the ranking gap on its own.
- Buyukakcay was born in Adana and is a Turkish player competing in the host city.
- Local coverage lists her with Ayla Aksu and Berfu Cengiz as the Turkish players in the main draw.
- She turned 36 .
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Buyukakcay's recent hard-court results run long, which suits an underdog trying to stay in the match rather than one expected to win quickly.
Only three of those eight matches finished in straight sets, and the scorelines include four 2-1 wins and one 2-0 win, with two straight-set defeats. Against a favourite who completes most matches in two sets, a long night is the likelier shape if the home player stays competitive, though the same small sample also contains quick losses.
- Buyukakcay's eight tracked hard-court matches average 22.75 games and 2.625 sets
- Five of those eight matches went to a deciding set
- Her hard-court scoreline split is four 2-1 wins, one 2-0 win, one 1-2 loss and two 0-2 losses

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
She is roughly 300 places higher ranked and has been beating stronger opposition on this surface, while Buyukakcay has lost to players ranked outside the top 500 this season.
- Hard-court record 9-5 in 14 tracked matches; 8-6 in first sets, 7-7 in second sets
- Ranked No. 125 and sixth seed here against No. 427
- Came through US Open qualifying and beat No. 111 Dayana Yastremska in the main draw
- Won her Adana opener 3-6 6-4 6-2; her hard-court losses were to Paolini (No. 20) and Podoroska (No. 204)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Beating a home player by nine or more games would require a dominant display that Stefanini has not produced recently on this surface.
- Buyukakcay has lost by more than eight games once in her last six completed matches (9-14 to Deniz Dilek)
- Stefanini's largest recent hard-court margin was seven games, against No. 208 Brengle
- Buyukakcay's Adana matches have been tight: 15-15 and 14-14 game counts
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCagla Buyukakcay +8.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Stefanini is the stronger player but usually wins by a handful of games rather than a wide margin, so a five-game cushion absorbs most plausible outcomes.
- Stefanini's recent hard-court game margins: +3, -5, -7, +6, +5, +7
- Buyukakcay's three completed matches this month: 0, -5 and 0 game margins
- Stefanini's straight-set wins over lower-ranked players have been worth about five to seven games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCagla Buyukakcay +4.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Buyukakcay's matches on this surface run long and she has already played a 30-game three-setter here, which pushes the total past this line more often than not.
- Buyukakcay's eight hard-court matches average 22.75 games; her three most recent were 30, 23 and 28 games
- Stefanini's 14 hard-court matches average 19.93 games and 2.21 sets
- Five of Buyukakcay's eight hard-court matches went to a deciding set
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets involving these two have generally been decided with a break or two rather than extended, keeping the game count near or below the line.
- Buyukakcay's first sets average 7.5 total games on hard; Stefanini's average 9.5
- Buyukakcay wins 3.13 and loses 4.38 games per first set
- Only one of their combined 22 hard-court matches featured a first-set tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players hover right around nine games, leaving the under just ahead on their recent numbers.
- Second sets average 8.79 games for Stefanini and 9.25 for Buyukakcay
- Combined second-set average is about 9.0 games
- Neither player recorded a second-set tiebreak in their hard-court samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Buyukakcay starts slowly and regularly hands over the first set, and Stefanini has the better opening-set record against stronger opposition.
- Stefanini is 8-6 in first sets across 14 hard-court matches
- Buyukakcay's first-set record on hard is 3-5, winning 3.13 games and losing 4.38 per set
- Buyukakcay has dropped the opening set in four of her last six completed matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set has been close to even for both players, with Stefanini holding only a slight overall edge in quality.
- Stefanini is 7-7 in second sets across 14 hard-court matches
- Buyukakcay is 4-4 in second sets on hard
- Second sets average 8.79 games for Stefanini and 9.25 for Buyukakcay
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLucrezia StefaniniEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The favourite's habit of winning in two sets is the single strongest pattern in either player's recent sample.
- Stefanini completed 11 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Only three of her 14 hard-court matches reached three sets
- Buyukakcay's hard-court record includes three straight-set results in eight matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' recent hard-court matches, with just two across 22 combined completed matches.
- Only one of Stefanini's 14 hard-court matches and one of Buyukakcay's eight featured a tiebreak
- Two tiebreaks in 22 combined hard-court matches
- Buyukakcay's first-round win ended 7-6(5) in the third set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Cagla Buyukakcay

7W 8L

2-6 6-3 7-6(5)#202Carole Monnet 6-1 2-6 6-2#553Deniz Dilek

2-6 6-4 6-4#289Katarina Kuzmova

6-4 6-4#280Eva Bennemann

2-6 6-4 6-2#264Yasmine Kabbaj

6-4 6-3#404Aneta Laboutkova

6-0 7-5#221Nuria Brancaccio

6-1 6-4#180Anastasiia Sobolieva

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2#732Zuzanna Bednarz

6-0 6-4#211Viktoria Hruncakova

6-2 6-2#141Susan Bandecchi

6-3 5-7 6-3#317Hina Inoue

6-2 4-6 6-2—Eva Alvarez Sande

6-0 6-1—Sapir Cohen

7-5 5-7 6-4#357Lidia Encheva

Lucrezia Stefanini

10W 5L

3-6 6-4 6-2#272Elena Ruxandra Bertea

6-3 6-4#204Nadia Podoroska

6-4 6-1#20Jasmine Paolini

6-3 4-6 6-1#111Dayana Yastremska

6-4 6-3#265Julieta Pareja

6-2 6-3#208Madison Brengle

6-2 6-3#210Ayla Aksu

6-2 6-4#27Marie Bouzkova

5-3 ret.#71Elisabetta Cocciaretto

6-2 6-4#109Leolia Jeanjean

6-4 6-2#110Anastasia Zakharova

7-6(4) 6-3#66Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

7-5 1-6 6-2#107Sofia Kenin

6-4 6-2#175Yeon Woo Ku

6-3 6-1#90Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CBCagla BuyukakcayBuyukakcay

Last 15

0–7

9 core stats · 2 even

Lucrezia StefaniniStefaniniLS

Lucrezia Stefanini carries the stronger recent form — Cagla Buyukakcay's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In70.6%—71.2%

1st Serve Won52.6%+4.3pp56.9%

2nd Serve Won43.6%+2.8pp46.4%

Aces / Match0.3—0.3

Double Faults / Match2.90.5 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won48.3%+1.0pp49.3%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted45.6%+11.7pp57.3%

Break Pts Saved44.2%+9.3pp53.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+2.5pp51.6%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

70.6%1st Serve In—71.2%

52.6%1st Serve Won+4.3pp56.9%

43.6%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp46.4%

0.3Aces / Match—0.3

2.9Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.4

Return · 0–1

48.3%Return Pts Won+1.0pp49.3%

Pressure · 0–2

45.6%Break Pts Converted+11.7pp57.3%

44.2%Break Pts Saved+9.3pp53.5%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+2.5pp51.6%

Cagla Buyukakcay #426Türkiye1Lucrezia Stefanini #147Italy2

Player Profiles

Cagla Buyukakcay

Lucrezia Stefanini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Over 2.5

Cagla Buyukakcay

Cagla Buyukakcay

Cagla Buyukakcay 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Cagla Buyukakcay

Lucrezia Stefanini

Stat Battle