Alejandro Tabilo #2622 – 0Tommy Paul #21United States0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Paul returns and breaks serve more effectively and has won both of their previous meetings.

• Paul is 7-4 on hard in this window; Tabilo is 6-5.
• On hard Paul wins 36.6% of return points and converts 47.9% of break points; Tabilo is at 32.3% and 35.7%.
• Paul won both previous meetings, in 2024 on hard, 6-7(2) 7-6(6) 6-2 and 6-3 6-4.
• Tabilo has not won a tour match since the second round of the US Open.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets for these two have been longer than first sets, with Paul's especially going deep.

• Tabilo's second sets in this sample average 10.6 games, Paul's 11.1.
• Paul has played four second-set tiebreaks in seven completed best-of-three hard matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The average opening set for both players sits just above the line.

• Tabilo's opening sets in this sample average 10.25 games, Paul's 9.71.
• Tabilo has played two first-set tiebreaks in eight matches; Paul none in seven.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Both players' recent best-of-three hard matches have averaged around 25 games in total.

• Paul's seven completed best-of-three hard matches average 26.4 total games; Tabilo's eight average 24.6.
• Eight of the 30 sets in those two samples needed a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have lost more second sets than they have won recently, but Paul's stronger overall form makes him the likelier winner of it.

• Paul has won the second set in 3 of 7 completed best-of-three hard matches; Tabilo in 3 of 8.
• Four of Paul's seven second sets in that sample needed a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Paul's better overall hard-court form gives him a modest edge in the opening set.

• Paul has won the opening set in 3 of 7 completed best-of-three hard matches; Tabilo in 4 of 8.
• Paul's hard-court record in this window is 7-4; Tabilo's is 6-5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both have shown tiebreak-heavy matches in this sample and both serve well enough to hold through twelve games.

• Four of Tabilo's eight and four of Paul's seven completed best-of-three hard matches contained a tiebreak.
• Both average more than seven aces per hard-court match.