PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Fausto Tabacco #557Italy0Daniel Rincon #206Spain2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Tue 29 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–278%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Rincon · 351 places

Fausto Tabacco

Italy

Tabacco, 24, is a right-hander listed at 183 cm. His recorded singles peak is No. 433 in August 2023.

Current ranking: #557
Peak ranking: #433 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Daniel Rincon

Spain

Rincón reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 181 on 4 December 2023. Reliable public profile sources did not establish a preferred surface or a supported injury-related decline narrative.

Current ranking: #206
Peak ranking: #181 · 2023
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A qualifier against a left-hander ranked 221 places higher is the tension in Porto's first round.

Rincón (No. 257) has been losing to top-100 opponents and is 4-5 on hard in his nine-match sample; Tabacco (No. 478) has won 11 of his last 15 and 10 of 13 on hard, but against lower-ranked fields, arriving off two three-set qualifying wins. Rincón is the fair favourite. No odds were supplied, so there is no price to judge.

Context

Tabacco spent 27 and earning his place in the Porto main draw, beating Alejo Sánchez Quilez 6-0 4-6 6-1 in the final qualifying round a day after another three-set win. It is his second successful qualifying campaign of the year, and it puts him straight into a first-round match against a left-hander ranked well above him. The cost is workload: two three-set matches in two days leave him less recovery time than an opponent who entered the main draw directly. The qualifying scores say nothing about how he handles Rincón's left-handed serve, so this run is better read as match sharpness than as a form edge.
- Beat Alejo Sánchez Quilez 6-0 4-6 6-1 in the final qualifying round
- Won qualifying matches on consecutive days, 27 and, both in three sets
- Second successful qualifying campaign of the year
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Tabacco is the 24-year-old qualifier, ranked No. 478, whose serve has been the least reliable part of his recent game.
His serve is the pressure point: nearly seven free points a match given away on double faults, only two aces a match, and a second serve that wins 41.3% of points (171 of 414). Facing a higher-ranked opponent, holding serve will not be straightforward for him in this first round.
- 104 double faults in 15 tracked matches (6.9 per match)
- 30 aces in the same 15 matches (2.0 per match)
- Second-serve points won: 41.3% (171 of 414)
- First serves in: 65.4% (781 of 1195)
Rincón, the higher-ranked left-hander in this first round, has been tested by top-100 opposition in his recent hard-court matches.
Rincón's slower starts argue for caution about expecting the ranking gap to show up immediately in the opening set. Four of those five first-set defeats came against opponents ranked inside the top 100, so the record reflects the level he has been facing as much as his own play.
- 4 wins, 5 losses in first sets across nine hard-court matches from 24 August to 22 September
- First-set games: 4.56 won, 5.22 lost per match
- One first-set tiebreak across the nine matches
- One retired match excluded from the sample
Tabacco's recent hard-court form combines a 10-3 record with a habit of long matches.
More than half of his hard-court matches this month have gone the distance, with an average of 2.54 sets and 22.9 games, and his second sets are where he does his best work (8 of 13 won, 4.92 games to 4.08). That points to a match that could stretch past two sets, though two of his defeats this month were heavy straight-set losses.
- 7 of 13 hard-court matches went to a deciding set (8 to 28 September)
- Set scorelines: 2-1 six times, 1-2 once, 2-0 four times, 0-2 twice
- Average 2.54 sets and 22.9 total games per hard-court match
- 8 of 13 second sets won, 4.92 games to 4.08

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rincón's far higher ranking and stronger regular opposition outweigh Tabacco's better-looking recent record, which was built at a lower level.
- Rincón is ranked No. 257, 221 places above Tabacco at No. 478.
- On hard courts in the tracked window Rincón is 4-5; Tabacco is 10-3 but his beaten opponents were ranked No. 370-764.
- Rincón's last two defeats were to players ranked No. 95 and No. 72.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDaniel RinconEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average at or above the line, so ten or more games is the slightly more likely outcome.
- First sets average 9.54 games in Tabacco's hard matches and 9.78 in Rincón's.
- Four of Tabacco's 13 first sets and one of Rincón's nine went to a tiebreak.
- Tabacco lost an opening set 6-7 to Jack Anthrop on 23 September.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets finish more quickly for both players, with Tabacco's averaging below the line.
- Second sets average 9.0 games in Tabacco's hard matches and 9.56 in Rincón's.
- No second set in either player's tracked hard-court sample reached a tiebreak.
- Tabacco's second sets in the window include a 6-1 and a 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' hard-court matches sit right around the line, with Tabacco's slightly shorter matches tipping the call under.
- Tabacco's hard-court matches average 22.9 total games; Rincón's average 23.6.
- Average match length is 2.54 sets for Tabacco and 2.44 for Rincón.
- Both of Tabacco's straight-set defeats this month finished 4-12 in games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is close on the numbers, and Rincón's higher ranking tilts a narrow call his way.
- Rincón has won 4 of 9 second sets on hard, averaging 4.67 games to 4.89.
- Tabacco has won 8 of 13 second sets, averaging 4.92 games to 4.08.
- No second set in either player's hard-court sample reached a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDaniel RinconEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rincón faces a higher standard of opponent and Tabacco's serving problems have cost him early sets.
- Rincón has lost 5 of 9 opening sets on hard, but four of those defeats came against opponents ranked inside the top 100.
- Tabacco has lost 6 of 13 opening sets on hard despite his winning run.
- Tabacco averages 6.8 double faults per match on this surface.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDaniel RinconEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Half the combined sample went the distance, and both players have been involved in long matches recently.
- Seven of Tabacco's 13 hard-court matches went to a deciding set; four of Rincón's nine did.
- Tabacco averages 2.54 sets per match and Rincón 2.44.
- Eleven of the 22 combined completed hard-court matches lasted three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are uncommon in both players' recent hard-court matches, and frequent breaks reduce the chance of a 7-6 set.
- Tiebreaks appeared in 4 of Tabacco's 13 hard-court matches and 2 of Rincón's nine.
- Second sets in the sample produced no tiebreaks at all across 22 matches.
- Tabacco averages 6.8 double faults per match on this surface, encouraging breaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Fausto Tabacco

11W 4L

6-0 4-6 6-1#370Alejo Sanchez Quilez

1-6 6-4 6-4#764Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-0 6-4#228Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-7(4) 6-3 6-2#724Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-2#362Patrick Schoen

7-6(6) 6-1#696Giorgio Tabacco

7-6(5) 6-2#394Lui Maxted

3-6 6-4 6-1#762Adria Soriano Barrera

7-6(4) 6-2—Pierre Antoine Tailleu

3-6 6-4 6-4#652Goncalo Marques

4-6 7-5 6-3#643Tiago Cacao

6-3 1-6 6-0—Alen Mujakic

6-2 6-2—Rodrigo Leal

6-3 3-6 6-0#426Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#372Andrey Chepelev

Daniel Rincon

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#95Dino Prizmic

5-7 6-4 6-3#72Titouan Droguet

5-7 4-2 ret.#400Hamish Stewart

6-3 3-6 6-3#311Ugo Blanchet

6-3 6-4#399Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-2 6-4#228Inaki Montes-De La Torre

7-6(3) 6-3#173Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-3#135Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 4-6 6-1—Jordan Lee

2-6 6-4 7-6(1)#72Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-0#113Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#159Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(8)#325Thomas Faurel

7-5 6-2#89Jan Choinski

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FTFausto TabaccoTabacco

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniel RinconRinconDR

Daniel Rincon carries the stronger recent form — Fausto Tabacco's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In65.4%+5.1pp60.3%

1st Serve Won64.4%+4.6pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won41.3%+7.5pp48.8%

Aces / Match2.0+4.86.8

Double Faults / Match6.94.8 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+9.6pp36.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.7%+12.7pp32.0%

Break Pts Saved55.3%+10.1pp65.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.4%+2.7pp48.7%

Serve · 1–4

65.4%1st Serve In+5.1pp60.3%

64.4%1st Serve Won+4.6pp69.0%

41.3%2nd Serve Won+7.5pp48.8%

2.0Aces / Match+4.86.8

6.9Double Faults / Match4.8 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+9.6pp36.9%

Pressure · 1–1

44.7%Break Pts Converted+12.7pp32.0%

55.3%Break Pts Saved+10.1pp65.4%

Points · 1–0

51.4%Total Pts Won+2.7pp48.7%