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Predictions graded

Dino Prizmic #101Croatia2Daniel Rincon #260Spain0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Tue 22 Sept 2026, 09:51 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDino Prizmic · 159 places

Dino Prizmic

Croatia

Right-hander currently ranked No. 101, listed at 188 cm with a two-handed backhand. No further reliable public profile detail was available.

Current ranking: #101
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Daniel Rincon

Spain

Left-hander currently ranked No. 260, listed at 185 cm with a two-handed backhand. No further reliable public profile detail was available.

Current ranking: #260
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Prizmic is 101st and beat Altmaier, 67th, in straight sets on 19 September, yet he has lost three of his last four completed best-of-three hard matches.

Rincon, 260th, is 4-4 on hard across eight matches and keeps matches long. Prizmic should still win, but the three priced selections with an edge are all on Rincon: the second set at 3.3, the match at 4.25, the first set at 3.3. Prizmic's match and first-set prices, 1.18 and 1.29, are too short.

Context

Rincon, ranked 260th, has been involved in tight, long matches on hard courts recently, with four of his last eight going the distance.
Rincon has neither blown opponents away nor been swept aside in this stretch: every scoreline type appears exactly twice, and four of the eight matches went to a deciding set. His 24.1-game average is the higher of the two players. The sample covers only eight matches in a single month, and one retired match was removed, so it describes a narrow window rather than a settled pattern. For this first round it points to long, close matches rather than quick wins.
- Rincon's completed best-of-three hard-court matches from 24 August to 17 September 2026: eight matches, 4-4, with two 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, two 1-2 losses and two 0-2 losses.
- Total games average 24.125 across those eight matches, and four of the eight went to a deciding set.
- First sets in the same window: 4-4, averaging 4.625 games won and 5.125 lost, with one tiebreak.
- One retired match is excluded from the hard-court set record.
Prizmic, ranked 101st, is the higher-ranked player here, and the Altmaier result is the standout entry in his recent form.
The Altmaier win is the standout result in Prizmic's recent record and the only one of his last six listed matches won in straight sets, which shows the level he can reach at this ranking. The counterweight is immediate: he lost 2-6 4-6 to Alexander Zverev, ranked second, the following day, and he has lost three of his last four completed hard-court matches. One strong result is not a trend, but it explains why he starts as the favourite here.
- Dino Prizmic beat Daniel Altmaier (ranked 67th) 6-4 6-3 on 19 September 2026 in an indoor hard-court match.
- It is the only straight-sets win and the only win over a top-70 opponent among Prizmic's six most recent listed matches, covering 13 August to 20 September 2026.
Prizmic's second sets have been his weakest stretch, with three of four lost in the 13 August to 20 September hard-court window.
The second set has been Prizmic's weakest phase in this window: he won only one of four, and his game numbers there are the lowest of any stage of the match. His first sets in the same four matches are level at 2-2, so the drop comes after a competitive start rather than from the opening. Four matches is a small sample and one retired match was removed, so this reads as a recent tendency rather than a fixed pattern, but it suggests the second set is where Rincon can gain a foothold.
- Prizmic's completed best-of-three hard-court matches from 13 August to 20 September 2026: four matches, 1-3, with one 2-0 win, one 1-2 loss and two 0-2 losses.
- Second sets in that window: 1-3, averaging 3.75 games won and 5.25 lost.
- First sets in the same window: 2-2, averaging 4.5 games won and 4.75 lost, with a total games average of 20.75 and no tiebreaks.
- One retired match is excluded from the hard-court set record.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Prizmic has a clear ranking advantage and better recent wins, though his hard-court form is modest.
- Prizmic is ranked 101 vs Rincon 260.
- Prizmic beat Altmaier (No. 67) in straight sets on 19 Sep.
- Rincon lost to Blanchet (No. 320) on 9 Sep.
- Prizmic's hard-court setEvidence is 2-2 in first sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDino PrizmicEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rincon's matches tend to be long, and his hard-court average is above the line, suggesting a total above 22.5 is more likely.
- Rincon's hard-court matches average 24.1 total games.
- Prizmic's hard-court matches average 20.8 total games.
- Rincon's setEvidence includes four three-set matches in eight.
- Prizmic's one three-set hard match had 26 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rincon's first sets average just above the line, and a competitive opening set could easily reach 10 games.
- Prizmic's first-set total games average is 9.25 on hard.
- Rincon's first-set total games average is 9.75 on hard.
- Rincon has one first-set tiebreak in eight hard matches.
- Prizmic has no first-set tiebreaks in four hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Prizmic's second sets have generally been short, and that keeps the total under 9.5 more likely.
- Prizmic's second-set total games average is 9.0.
- Prizmic lost his second sets by average 3.75-5.25.
- Rincon's second-set total games average is 9.625.
- Rincon has no second-set tiebreaks in eight hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Prizmic has a slightly better first-set game differential and the higher ranking, making him a modest favorite for the opening set.
- Prizmic is 2-2 in first sets on hard in setEvidence.
- Rincon is 4-4 in first sets on hard in setEvidence.
- Prizmic's first-set games won average is 4.5 vs 4.75 lost.
- Rincon's first-set games won average is 4.625 vs 5.125 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDino PrizmicEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.30
The read
Rincon has been more consistent in second sets on hard, while Prizmic has often faded after the first set.
- Rincon is 4-4 in second sets on hard in setEvidence.
- Prizmic is 1-3 in second sets on hard.
- Rincon's second-set games won average is 4.875 vs 4.75 lost.
- Rincon won the second set in his 2-1 loss to Droguet.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostDaniel RinconEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The available hard-court samples show tiebreaks are uncommon for both players, making a match without a tiebreak more likely.
- Prizmic has no tiebreaks in his last four hard matches.
- Rincon has two tiebreaks in his last eight hard matches.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 2 in 12 hard matches.
- Neither player has a high ace or serve metric available.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Prediction history

Dino Prizmic: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Dino Prizmic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Dino Prizmic11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

15 Jul·ATP Umag

#84Dino Prizmic1-2#101Alex Molcan

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·72%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#84Dino Prizmic1-2#101Alex Molcan

Dino Prizmic to win

72%probability

Alex Molcan won

Missed

13 Jul·ATP Umag

#64Vit Kopriva0-2#89Dino Prizmic

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#64Vit Kopriva0-2#89Dino Prizmic

Dino Prizmic to win

62%probability

Dino Prizmic won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#92Adam Walton1-3#81Dino Prizmic

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#92Adam Walton1-3#81Dino Prizmic

Dino Prizmic to win

62%probability

Dino Prizmic won

Matched

13 Jun·ATP London

#70Dino Prizmic1-2#106Rinky Hijikata

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·62%

Missed

13 Jun 2026

ATP London

#70Dino Prizmic1-2#106Rinky Hijikata

Dino Prizmic to win

62%probability

Rinky Hijikata won

Missed

27 May·ATP Roland Garros

#30Joao Fonseca3-2#72Dino Prizmic

BetBugsDino Prizmic to win·55%

Missed

27 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#30Joao Fonseca3-2#72Dino Prizmic

Dino Prizmic to win

55%probability

Joao Fonseca won

Missed

Previous match context available

Dino Prizmic

6W 9L

6-2 6-4#2Alexander Zverev

6-4 6-3#67Daniel Altmaier

6-2 6-3 5-7 6-4#18Tommy Paul

2-6 6-3 6-3 5-7 7-5#109Alexander Shevchenko

6-4 6-4#179Alexis Galarneau

3-6 6-1 6-4#39Cameron Norrie

3-6 7-6(5) 4-0 ret.#96Alex Molcan

6-1 6-3#71Vit Kopriva

7-6(2) 6-3 7-5#5Felix Auger Aliassime

4-6 7-6(3) 6-4 6-2#99Adam Walton

4-6 6-4 7-5#82Rinky Hijikata

3-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-2#28Joao Fonseca

6-1 6-1 6-3#92Michael Zheng

6-1 7-6(2)#26Karen Khachanov

6-1 7-5#33Ugo Humbert

Daniel Rincon

7W 8L

5-7 6-4 6-3#84Titouan Droguet

5-7 4-2 ret.#398Hamish Stewart

6-3 3-6 6-3#320Ugo Blanchet

6-3 6-4#396Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-2 6-4#226Inaki Montes-De La Torre

7-6(3) 6-3#173Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-3#137Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 4-6 6-1—Jordan Lee

2-6 6-4 7-6(1)#84Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-0#114Zsombor Piros

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#164Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#138Thiago Seyboth Wild

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(8)#340Thomas Faurel

7-5 6-2#89Jan Choinski

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#181Laslo Djere

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DPDino PrizmicPrizmic

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Daniel RinconRinconDR

Daniel Rincon carries the stronger recent form — Dino Prizmic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1559.2%+1.8pp61.0%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1571.5%+2.7pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1552.5%+3.2pp49.3%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/155.8+0.76.5

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/154.22.3 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1536.1%+1.2pp37.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1541.9%+8.6pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1555.3%+10.9pp66.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.9%+0.8pp49.1%

Serve · 2–3

59.2%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+1.8pp61.0%

71.5%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.7pp68.8%

52.5%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+3.2pp49.3%

5.8Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+0.76.5

4.2Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.3 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

36.1%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.2pp37.3%

Pressure · 1–1

41.9%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+8.6pp33.3%

55.3%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+10.9pp66.2%

Points · 1–0

49.9%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+0.8pp49.1%

Dino Prizmic

Daniel Rincon

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Daniel Rincon

Daniel Rincon

Daniel Rincon

Dino Prizmic 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Dino Prizmic

Daniel Rincon

Stat Battle