United StatesColumbus - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Duncan Chan #486Canada2Keaton Hance #865United States0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Mon 28 Sept 2026, 16:58 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDuncan Chan · 379 places

Duncan Chan

Canada

Canadian right-hander, born 29 July 2005. Public player databases list a singles career-high of No. 601 in July 2026 and show his recorded 2026 matches on hard courts.

Current ranking: #486
Peak ranking: #601 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Keaton Hance

United States

An 18-year-old from Torrance, California, Hance finished runner-up in the 2026 Australian Open boys' singles and was the No. 4 seed at the US Open juniors in September 2026. He also won the 2025 US Open boys' doubles title with Jack Kennedy.

Current ranking: #865
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 06:51 · Europe/Bucharest

In a Columbus Challenger qualifying match, Chan is the higher-ranked player but has won only three of 14 first sets on hard, while Hance arrives from a San Diego Challenger round of 16 and a three-set win on 27 September.

Chan should still edge the match, though 1.6 asks more than his 6-8 hard-court record justifies and Hance at 2.2 is no bargain. The one quoted price that offers anything is Hance to win the first set at 2.15.

Context

Chan, 21, was in Quebec City and played for Canada six days before his first match in Columbus. Sharing a court with Auger-Aliassime against Herbert and Bonzi in a home tie is a much higher standard of opposition than a Challenger qualifying draw, and it is the clearest recent evidence that Chan is comfortable in tour-level conditions and in front of a full arena. The limitation is format: the outing was a straight-sets doubles loss, so it speaks to his exposure to that pace rather than to his singles level on a hard court.
- Chan was named in Canada's squad for the Davis Cup tie against France on 18- in Quebec City.
- Chan was set to make his Davis Cup debut alongside Felix Auger-Aliassime in the doubles match.
- Herbert and Bonzi won that doubles 7-6(4) 6-3, cutting Canada's lead to 2-1.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 06:49 · Europe/Bucharest
Hance's strongest recent professional result came at San Diego in late September, where he beat an opponent ranked more than 500 places above him and then took a set off a former top-100 player. Beating Andres Martin is the clearest current sign that Hance's No. 865 ranking understates his level on this circuit, and it is the best available read on the player Chan is facing. The caveat is breadth: one Challenger week is a narrow base, and the rest of his 2026 hard-court results sit below that standard.
- Hance, ranked No. 865, beat Andres Martin, ranked No. 322, in the round of 32 at the San Diego Challenger 75.
- Basavareddy, ranked No. 167 and a former top-100 player, beat Hance 6-2 4-6 6-3 to reach the quarterfinals.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 06:49 · Europe/Bucharest
Chan is the higher-ranked player but has repeatedly started matches slowly in this hard-court window.
The opening set is where the ranking gap counts least, and Chan's first-set figures are the weakest line in his record: three won, 11 lost. His second sets in the same 14 matches are better at six won and eight lost, so the difficulty is concentrated at the start rather than spread across the match. Keaton Hance has won three of six first sets in his own hard-court sample, though that is a small base of completed matches with one retirement excluded.
- Chan's 14 completed hard-court matches from 12 June to 27 September 2026 include a 3-11 first-set record, with 4.4 games won and 5.7 lost per opening set.
- The same 14-match sample shows a 6-8 second-set record and tiebreaks in six of the matches.
The Gaston result is the clearest recent sign that Chan can beat a top-100 opponent on a hard court.
Gaston was ranked No. 97, almost 400 places above Chan, and the win required a turnaround after a 2-6 first set. It shows the level Chan can reach, but it stands alone in the six-match listing, which also contains straight-set losses to No. 193 Taro Daniel and No. 110 Dane Sweeny. One result against a higher-ranked opponent does not change a 6-8 hard-court record across 14 matches.
- Chan beat Hugo Gaston, ranked No. 97, 2-6 7-5 6-3 on 1 August 2026 in a hard-court match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Duncan Chan

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

Chan is higher ranked and has faced stronger opposition on hard, giving him the overall edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Chan is higher ranked and has faced stronger opposition on hard, giving him the overall edge.
- Chan is ranked No. 486, Hance No. 865.
- Chan has 14 hard-court matches in the sample (6-8); Hance has 6 (3-3).
- Chan has faced higher-ranked opponents, including a win over No. 97 Hugo Gaston.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDuncan ChanEstimated chance60%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average total games across their hard matches sits above the line.
- Chan's hard matches average 24.9 total games; Hance's average 22.0.
- Combined average across both players is 24.0 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just above the line.
- Chan's first sets average 10.1 total games; Hance's average 8.8.
- Combined first-set average is 9.7 total games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average is slightly above the line.
- Chan's second sets average 9.5 total games; Hance's average 10.2.
- Combined second-set average is 9.7 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of their hard-court matches have finished in straight sets.
- Chan's hard matches average 2.5 sets; Hance's average 2.33 sets.
- Combined three-set rate is 45% across 20 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Hance has a better first-set win rate in the sample.
- Hance has won 3 of 6 first sets on hard; Chan has won 3 of 14.
- Hance's first-set games average is 3.8 won to 5.0 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKeaton HanceEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches have not featured a tiebreak.
- Chan has had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 hard matches; Hance in 1 of 6.
- Combined tiebreak rate is 35% across 20 hard matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Duncan Chan

7W 8L

6-7(11) 6-3 7-6(4)—Denis Petak

6-3 6-2#193Taro Daniel

6-3 1-6 7-6(3)#52Thiago Agustin Tirante

2-6 7-5 6-3#97Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-1#110Dane Sweeny

6-2 2-6 6-4#125Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#255James McCabe

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#470Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 6-4#453Alafia Ayeni

6-4 6-2#312Daniel Milavsky

7-6(5) 6-3#410Timo Legout

2-6 6-4 3-0 ret.—Unknown Player

6-4 6-3#202Braden Shick

6-2 4-6 6-2#636Ryan Colby

7-5 7-6(6)#416Ozan Baris

Keaton Hance

9W 6L

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3#624Michael Antonius

6-2 4-6 6-3#167Nishesh Basavareddy 6-4 7-5#322Andres Martin

6-1 6-4#297Johannus Monday

6-4 6-2#600Naoya Honda

6-2 6-2—William Jansen

7-6(2) 2-6 7-5#388Jack Kennedy

5-3 ret.#1405Kuzey Cekirge

6-4 2-6 6-1#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-3 6-3#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-0 6-4—Carles Rojas

6-0 6-1—Jose Francisco Gonzalez Noriega

6-3 6-3—Aron Paul Samson

6-3 6-2#275Nick Hardt

6-4 6-0—Matthew Segura

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DCDuncan ChanChan

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Keaton HanceHanceKH

Keaton Hance carries the stronger recent form — Duncan Chan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1562.8%+3.5pp59.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1566.2%+3.2pp63.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1545.1%+5.0pp50.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/153.6+2.11.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/154.1—4.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1539.9%+2.8pp42.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1545.1%+3.2pp48.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1554.0%+4.9pp58.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1549.1%+1.2pp50.3%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

62.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+3.5pp59.3%

66.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+3.2pp63.0%

45.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+5.0pp50.1%

3.6Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+2.11.5

4.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/15—4.0

Return · 0–1

39.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.8pp42.7%

Pressure · 0–2

45.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+3.2pp48.3%

54.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+4.9pp58.9%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.2pp50.3%